135
FXUS64 KMOB 041908
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
108 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

  - Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday
    with the potential of localized flooding.

  - Sustained winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots
    will be possible through today across the offshore Gulf
    waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until
    Midnight.

  - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents
    tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and
    the western Florida Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

We are not going to complain about the much needed rain, but it
certainly is rather raw outside with a steady rain and
temperatures struggling to break out of the 50s. This will likely
be the case through most of the weekend as broad southwesterly
flow remains across the area and a parade of shortwave troughs
march through the eastern US. A stalled boundary will remain just
offshore through the next 48 to 72 hours allowing for a focus of
continued moderate to heavy rainfall across the entire area
through Sunday. Rain will likely come in waves as each passing
shortwave provides an influx of moisture and increased isentropic
ascent over the boundary leading to an overrunning stratiform
rain. A good portion of the area has already seen 1 to 3 inches of
rain from this first band of rainfall this morning. Looking at NBM
probabilities, areas mainly south and east of I-65 have about a
30 to 50 percent chance of adding an additional 2+ inches through
Sunday to the rainfall total. This would give event total
rainfalls of around 3 to 5 inches mainly across South-Central
Alabama and the northwestern Florida Panhandle. While this is
a decent amount of rainfall, the steady and slow rates should not
result in any major flooding concerns across the area and most of
the rain will be rather beneficial to our ongoing drought
conditions. The only locations that could see some minor nuisance
flooding would be the immediate coastal communities and poor
drainage metro areas of Mobile and Pensacola and even then it
will mostly be some ponding on roadways.

By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the final shortwave should
be enough to push enough dry air into the area to give us a bit of
a respite from the dreary cold rain. Southwesterly flow aloft
will become more westerly by midweek as another weak shortwave
moves through mid-week. Expect a drier and warmer pattern by the
end of the week. Without any deep northwesterly flow, temperatures
will basically hover in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows
Wednesday through Friday.

BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

An area of isentropic upglide west of the Tombigbee/Mobile Bay will
gradually spread east through the afternoon, with low end MVFR or
lower conditions west of the river spreading east with. Drops in
conditions to LIFR are possible in heavier rain embedded in the
widespread rains. Operations are likely to be impacted area-wide.
Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 knots expected through the forecast.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds this morning will
increase to strong this afternoon as an inverted surface trough
advances from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. A moderate
onshore flow is likely over the Gulf tonight as a surface low and
warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle, while winds
remain northeasterly to easterly over the bays and sounds. Winds
will then shift northerly on Friday in the wake of the departing
low pressure area.

BB-8
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      46  55  47  57 /  80  70  70  90
Pensacola   51  60  52  59 /  80  80  80  90
Destin      52  64  52  61 /  80  80  70  90
Evergreen   43  56  44  57 /  90  70  70  80
Waynesboro  40  51  41  55 /  90  40  60  60
Camden      40  52  41  53 /  90  50  60  70
Crestview   45  60  47  57 /  80  80  80  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$