966
FXUS64 KMOB 011129
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across coastal
   portions of the western Florida Panhandle if a warm front is
   able to shift onshore late tonight through early Tuesday
   morning.

 - Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft
   over the open Gulf waters mainly from late tonight into
   Tuesday.

 - A high rip current risk is in effect for the Northwest Florida
   Panhandle beaches today and for all coastal beaches of Alabama
   and the Florida Panhandle tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A positively tilted upper trof extending from the 4 Corners region
to the northern Plains takes on a meridional orientation before
progressing across the eastern states late Monday night into
Tuesday evening. An associated surface low is anticipated to
develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then move across the
western Florida panhandle Tuesday night (between 03-09Z) before
continuing well away from the area. The trajectory of the surface
low indicated by the latest guidance tempers the potential for any
meaningful instability to be able to lift into the western
Florida panhandle. Will continue to monitor, but at this point
the potential for strong storms looks low. Have gone with chance
to likely pops for Monday, categorical pops for Monday night, then
slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday morning. Dry conditions
follow for Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday.

Another positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves from the
northern Plains to the 4 Corners region on Wednesday. The upper
trof splits with much of the upper trof ejecting off across the
northeastern states Wednesday night into Thursday night. The
remainder of the upper trof is joined by a Canadian system to form
an upper trof extending from the central states into the Baja
area by Thursday night. There`s uncertainty with how quickly this
upper trof advances eastward and also the potential for the upper
trof to weaken substantially. It appears that another surface low
looks to take a trajectory similar to what transpired earlier in
the week and move across the forecast area roughly on Friday.
There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this plays out and
will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to
likely pops for Thursday with likely to categorical pops for
Friday. Mainly chance pops follow for Saturday, then Sunday looks
to be mainly dry except for small pops near the coast.

Highs will be near seasonable values on Monday, and Friday through
Sunday, and about 5-10 degrees below seasonable values for
Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows trend to well below
seasonable values by Tuesday night to range from the mid/upper 20s
well inland to the lower/mid 30s at the coast. Lows trend to a bit
above seasonable values by Thursday night with near seasonable
values expected for Saturday night. A moderate risk is expected
today for the Alabama beaches with a high risk for the western
Florida panhandle beaches. A high risk of rip currents follows for
all beach areas for Monday night into Tuesday, then a moderate
risk is expected Tuesday night. A low rip current risk continues
for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk is expected for
Friday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings will remain across the region today into
tonight. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to
overspread the area as we head into late afternoon and the evening
hours, lingering through the overnight. A few thunderstorms are
possible nearer the coast, with a couple strong to severe storms
not out of the question across the Florida Panhandle overnight
tonight. Winds will remain out of the east to northeast around 5
knots today into this evening, with 5 to 10 knots near the coast.
Winds shift out of the southeast across the Florida Panhandle
tonight as a warm front attempts to lift onshore. A surface low
tracks near the coast tonight with a cold front progressing across
the entire area through early Tuesday morning, turning winds out
of the north in its wake at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds gradually
become southeasterly by Monday evening, then switch to the
northwest Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front
moves through. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
overnight into early Monday morning for the open Gulf waters,
which may need to be extended for the 20-60 nm portion through
Monday afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the open
Gulf waters from 9 pm Monday evening into 3 pm Tuesday afternoon.
Timing for the Small Craft Advisory may need to be refined on
subsequent shifts depending on how quickly the flow
increases/subsides. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night
then becomes more easterly by Thursday. An onshore flow develops
Thursday night then switches to the northwest on Friday as another
cold front moves through. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  47  57  31 /  50 100  20   0
Pensacola   68  54  62  36 /  60  90  20   0
Destin      68  57  66  38 /  60  90  40   0
Evergreen   64  46  57  28 /  50 100  20   0
Waynesboro  57  38  49  26 /  50 100  20   0
Camden      59  39  51  26 /  50 100  20   0
Crestview   65  51  63  30 /  60 100  30   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$