997
FXUS64 KMOB 061134
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The soggy pattern sticks around one more day before the pattern
shifts again. The bands of rain earlier on Sunday have lifted north
and dissipated with only a few isolated showers across the area as
of 04z. The main concern through the overnight hours will be low
ceilings as most of the high-res guidance holds off any significant
re-development of showers and storms until the pre-dawn hours. HREF
ensemble mean PWATs show that the slug of moisture sitting overhead
right now (PWATs of 2+ inches) will steadily move northwest of the
area throughout the morning hours (although still very moist
afterward). 3-hr QPF ensemble PMMs (and LPMM) are highlighting a few
spots in a corridor from roughly Stone/George Counties in
Mississippi down across the coastal Alabama counties and northwest
Florida with 2-3 inches of rain from roughly 09z to 18z today. The
area of most concern today will be southern Baldwin County where 8+
inches of rain fell on Sunday afternoon, so any additional heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding concerns. Elsewhere, the rain
should be beneficial on Monday for the ongoing drought across much
of the area, so long as it doesn`t all fall in a short period of
time like what happened on Sunday. Temperatures will still get up
into the mid to potentially upper 80s this afternoon, especially in
the spots where it doesn`t rain and there are more breaks in the
clouds.

The ridge aloft begins to backbuild from the Atlantic westward
toward the Gulf as we roll into Tuesday and Wednesday. The lack of
forcing on those days will lead to some afternoon hit-or-miss
showers and storms, but that`s about it. The ridge continues to
slide westward and opens up the door for a shortwave to potentially
dive southward into the region in the Thursday/Friday timeframe.
Model guidance begins to diverge as we get this far out in time but
the ensembles generally agree that a shortwave trough will dip
toward the area late in the week, sending a front into the area.
Some dry air begins to filter into the area behind the front, but a
bigger push of drier air filters into the region later in the
weekend with PWATs cratering to well below an inch. Northerly to
northwesterly flow aloft prevails Friday through early next week.

Beach Forecast - A tight pressure gradient led to gusty
southeasterly winds that will persist today before gradually
relaxing. As a result surf heights should start to somewhat relax
through the morning hours on Monday. The rip current risk remains
HIGH through Tuesday with a MODERATE risk expected on Wednesday for
coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. The rip current MOS
guidance indicates another bump in the rip current risk late
Thursday into Friday with some beaches potentially reaching the HIGH
risk category again. For now, we are sticking with the MODERATE risk
through Friday, but if the upward trend in the MOS probabilities
continues, we will adjust the risk upward for late this week.
Coastal overwash may occur again today for vulnerable spots along
the immediate coastline (especially Dauphin Island), especially if
any storms briefly enhance the southwesterly flow at the coast. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Showers with some embedded storms will develop across southeast
Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida through the
early afternoon hours, then diminish by early this evening. IFR
conditions and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.
Otherwise, IFR/MVFR conditions improve to MVFR/VFR this morning,
then predominately VFR conditions are expected by late this
afternoon. Easterly winds around 10 knots become east to southeast
10-15 knots today. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters through
this afternoon as strong easterly to southeasterly winds persist. No
impact expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible
near thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Advisory level conditions
are possible late in the week as a front potentially slides across
the Gulf. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  71  85  70  88  68  87  64 /  70  20  50  10  20  10  20  10
Pensacola   84  73  85  73  88  72  87  67 /  40  20  30  10  20  10  20  10
Destin      85  73  86  73  87  73  85  67 /  40  20  10  10  10  10  20  10
Evergreen   87  69  89  67  90  66  85  61 /  30  20  20  10  20  10  30  10
Waynesboro  83  68  85  67  87  64  84  62 /  60  20  30  10  10   0  10   0
Camden      84  68  87  67  87  66  83  60 /  30  20  20  20  20  10  20  10
Crestview   85  69  87  68  89  67  85  62 /  40  20  20  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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