281
FXUS64 KMOB 081135
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - A Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for most of
   the marine area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the
   potential for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf
   waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is likely for most of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20`s to lower 30`s.

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Monday across
   the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
   forecast strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A potent upper trough digs into the eastern CONUS Sunday into
Monday, bringing with it a powerful cold front and the coldest
airmass of the season so far. Strong winds follow the cold front
presenting marine hazards Sunday through Monday night and fire
weather concerns during the day Monday. Generally northwesterly to
westerly flow aloft prevails on the backside of a longwave upper
trough through the rest of the week with a return to more
seasonable temperatures by mid to late week.

Today will remain mostly dry as the shortwave responsible for
isolated showers and storms yesterday has shifted east of the
area. A few showers and maybe a storm or two could develop along
the aforementioned cold front tonight through daybreak Sunday.
Dry weather settles into the forecast area by Sunday night through
the remainder of next week.

Our coldest airmass of the season will infiltrate the area Sunday
night through Monday night. Temperatures drop substantially into
the lower to middle 30`s for interior locations Sunday night with
middle to upper 30`s nearer the coast. Monday will feature our
coldest day of the season as highs struggle to exceed 50 degrees
for most locations, with current expectations for most of the
interior to remain locked into the upper 40`s. Nearer the coast a
few spots may manage to break into the lower 50`s. To put this
cold into perspective, these highs are closer to what we would
typically expect for overnight lows this time of year with the
average low at KMOB being 50 degrees and the current forecast high
Monday being 52 degrees. As we head into Monday night surface
high pressure settles in, with calming winds and clear skies
prevailing. This will result in an idealized radiational cooling
setup that will send nearly the entire forecast area below
freezing, perhaps well below freezing over the interior. Expect
lows to dip into the 23 to 27 range over interior areas, with 27
to 32 across coastal counties. Even some of our beaches may flirt
with freezing temperatures as lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30`s. Only spots that are likely to remain above
freezing will be the more protected areas such as Dauphin Island
and Destin.

Tuesday warms into the upper 50`s for most locations, with lows
Tuesday night dipping into the middle to upper 30`s for most
locations, perhaps even a few lower 40`s making their way back
into coastal counties. We gradually moderate back to near normal
temperatures mid to late week with highs reaching the middle 70`s
once again and lows in the middle to upper 40`s over the interior
and upper 40`s to lower 50`s nearer the coast. A Low risk of rip
currents continues through the middle of next week.

One more hazard to discuss is the potential for fire weather
concerns Monday afternoon. Strong winds will be present across the
area with sustained surface winds around 10 to 20 mph with
frequent gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. 20 foot winds also
approach similar values with sustained 20 foot winds closing in on
15 to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values dip to
near 25 percent Monday. Fuels remain very dry given the ongoing
drought, and combined with the strong winds and dry airmass
dangerous fire conditions will exist Monday and a Red Flag
warning may be needed Monday for most of the area. Winds relax
Tuesday, but the very dry airmass remains in place which may still
result in some increased fire danger. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings have settling into the forecast area
this evening, with localized LIFR ceilings being observed in a few
spots. While a low stratus deck will be the primary flight
category restriction, localized patches of fog could result in IFR
to LIFR visibilities until after daybreak. Flight category
improves back to VFR by mid morning. Winds will generally continue
to be out of the south- southwest to southwest at around 5 knots
the rest of tonight through the day today.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1000 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A light westerly to southwesterly flow persists today. A moderate to
strong northwesterly flow develops Sunday in the wake of a cold
front. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed in the wake of
the cold front for all marine waters Sunday afternoon through
Monday night. Gusts to gale force are possible over the open Gulf
waters Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will then relax
and become southeasterly to southerly on Tuesday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  63  72  36 /   0  20   0   0
Pensacola   80  67  75  40 /   0  10  10   0
Destin      79  67  77  44 /  10  20  10   0
Evergreen   83  59  72  34 /   0  30  10   0
Waynesboro  81  55  67  32 /   0  30   0   0
Camden      81  57  67  33 /  10  30   0   0
Crestview   81  61  75  35 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$