871
FXUS64 KMOB 021112
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
612 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Now through Wednesday...
An upper level trough organizes over the north-central and
northeastern Gulf coast into the weekend. As Imelda and Humberto,
located off the East coast, move off, a weak surface ridge over the
Appalachians strengthens and builds south over the Southeast,
creating a tight pressure gradient along the northern Gulf coast the
rest of the week through the weekend. Most of the forecast area will
be rain free as drier northerly air moves south over the Southeast
on the west side of the surface ridge, the exception being along and
south of the coast. A combination of better moisture levels, strong
low level dynamics in the strong easterly flow, along with several
easterly waves passing south of the Gulf coast, and added upper
weakness from the upper trough comes together allowing for daily
showers and thunderstorms to form. A building upper ridge over the
East coast will shift the upper trough westward Sunday into the
coming week. The surface ridge over the Appalachians rotates
clockwise in response, allowing Gulf moisture to move further inland
(guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising over 2" over
most of the forecast area by Monday). Precipitation returns forecast
area-wide Sunday on in response.

High temperatures well above seasonal norms Thursday (mid to upper
80s) drop through the rest of the week into the weekend before
bottoming out on Sunday (low to mid 80s), with its best chance of
rain this forecast. High temperatures rebound early in the coming
week as upper subsidence increases from the building East Coast
upper ridge. Low temperatures remain above seasonal norms, with the
coolest night being Thursday night, ranging from the upper 50s well
north of Highway 84 to upper 60s along the coast. The increasing
moisture levels, then increasing upper subsidence, will bring low
temperatures ranging from the the mid 60s to near 70 north of I-10 t
low 70s south to the coast.

Increasing easterly flow along the northern Gulf coast will bring a
High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday through the weekend.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight, with the exception of
some isolated mainly afternoon convection near the coast. Light
northeasterly winds become easterly around 10 knots today. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A surface ridge builds south over the Appalachians into the
weekend, bringing moderate to strong easterly winds to near shore
and open Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
Thursday through the weekend, with a possibility of being extended
longer.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  64  83  66  85  69  82  69 /  20  10  10   0  20  40  70  40
Pensacola   85  68  83  69  85  72  82  73 /  20  10  10  10  30  40  70  40
Destin      86  68  84  70  84  72  83  72 /  10   0  10  10  30  40  70  40
Evergreen   87  60  84  62  86  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  50  30
Waynesboro  85  60  83  62  84  67  82  68 /  10   0   0   0   0  10  40  20
Camden      85  60  83  62  84  67  82  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  30  20
Crestview   87  62  83  64  84  69  82  69 /  10   0   0   0  20  20  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$

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