909
FXUS64 KMOB 031126
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

  - Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of
    the week.

  - A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama
    and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Zonal flow aloft will gradually shift to a west-southwesterly flow
by Thursday evening, with a series of upper level impulses
traversing the region through the remainder of the week. A surface
high pressure area east of the Mississippi River will gradually
weaken through noon Thursday as it shifts eastward, while a low-
level inverted trough sets up over the Texas coast into southern
Louisiana. An impressive return of precipitable water (PWAT) will
occur as we transition from around 0.2 inch PWAT this morning under
a strong subsidence inversion, to range from 1.5-1.7 inches by
Thursday evening. Slightly higher PWAT values are expected after
midnight Thursday through noon Friday as we tap into an atmospheric
river extended over the entire western Gulf into the northern Gulf.
Likely to categorical precipitation chances (pops) for both Thursday
and Friday remain unchanged. These high pops will likely occur on
Saturday as well along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. There
also remains a signal for modest probabilities for the potential of
heavy rain over this period. Appropriately so, the southwestern
portion of our forecast area remains in marginal risk of excessive
rainfall on Thursday, our entire area is outlooked on Friday, and
areas along and southeast of the I-65 corridor is outlooked on
Saturday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches are
forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible.
We will also closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and
attendant warm front/warm sector to determine if a potential exists
for more surface based convection and the risk of strong storms. The
entire system will exit the area near the end of the weekend, with a
dry period returning through the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents today through Thursday
night will increase to MODERATE on Friday, and is expected to
drop back to LOW over the weekend. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

IFR flight category generally prevails across the region this
morning. A return to VFR flight category is anticipated by late
morning into the early afternoon hours. Winds remain out of the
north around 5 knots, turning northeast late this afternoon into
this evening near or less than 5 knots. Isolated to scattered rain
showers begin to gradually overspread the area late tonight.
MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

No significant impacts to small craft are expected through the
remainder of the week outside of locally higher winds/seas and
reduced visibilities associated with showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, light north to northeast winds today will shift
northeasterly to easterly tonight and gradually increase through
Thursday along with building seas. A series of low-level troughs and
surface lows will move eastward over the area Thursday afternoon
through the remainder of the week, bringing numerous to widespread
showers along with embedded thunderstorms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  42  53  45 /   0  40  90  80
Pensacola   58  47  55  50 /   0  30  80  80
Destin      59  47  58  51 /   0  20  70  70
Evergreen   58  37  53  43 /   0  10  80  80
Waynesboro  56  35  48  40 /   0  40  80  90
Camden      53  33  49  40 /   0  10  70  90
Crestview   59  38  53  45 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$