389
FXUS64 KMOB 090517
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Now through Wednesday...

A strong upper level shortwave dives into a mean upper trough over
the East Coast into Friday. A cold front that has moved to near the
northern Gulf Coast moves offshore into Thursday, with drier, cooler
airmass moving south over the forecast area in response. Enough
moisture and dynamics from the passing shortwave will help to
develop a few showers and thunderstorms over areas southeast of I-65
today, shifting offshore tonight as drier air moves south over the
forecast area. A developing surface low off the Florida Atlantic
coast Friday into the weekend will help to slow down the influx of
drier air temporarily as Atlantic moisture moves inland over the
Southeast on the north side of the low. As the low moves north along
the coast Saturday on, dry northerly low level flow is enhanced for
the rest of the weekend. A surface ridge moves over the forecast
area and nearby early in the coming week, keeping the dry airmass in
place through the rest of the forecast. Not to forget, an upper high
centered over Texas meanders a bit east to varying extents in the
guidance, leading to a spread in temperatures in the guidance in the
coming week.

Looking at temperatures, well above seasonal high temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s Thursday, drop below seasonal for Friday (upper
70s over the northeastern half of the forecast area to low 80s over
the southwest). From there, temperatures moderate upwards, into the
mid to upper 80s by Tuesday as the upper high approaches from west.
Low temperatures see the same dip the end of the week, from low/mid
60s north of Highway 84 to low 70s along the coast Wednesday night
to well below seasonal low to mid 50s over most of the forecast area
Saturday night. From there, low temperatures see an uptick of a few
degrees the rest of the forecast.

Moderate easterly flow will work with an increasing tidal cycle to
keep a Moderate to at times High Risk of Rip currents into Saturday.
Winds shift to more northeast over the weekend, with the Rip Risk
dropping to Low by Sunday.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions expected over most of the forecast area through the
forecast. Local drops to MVFR levels are possible in isolated rain
showers along and south of I-10 Thursday. Northerly winds around 5
knots overnight are expected to shift to more easterly and rise to 5
to 10 knots Thursday afternoon.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Moderate to strong offshore flow will follow a cold front
moving offshore into Thursday. Winds will ease and become more
variable in the coming week as a surface ridge moves over the area.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  81  59  83  56  83  58  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   65  81  62  83  61  82  62  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      65  81  63  84  62  82  65  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  82  53  85  51  86  54  89 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  61  80  55  82  53  84  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      59  79  55  82  53  83  55  86 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   61  81  56  84  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Friday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Saturday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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