047
FXUS64 KMOB 251247
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
647 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

 - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain
   possible early this morning through this evening.

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across the marine area mid to late week.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches today and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Quick update on the severe weather potential this morning and into
the afternoon. Things have certainly not gone as originally
planned this morning and in a good way for us. It appears the
ridge to our southeast was a little stronger than originally
modeled which allowed for the better forcing/lift to be centered
move over central to northern Alabama and Mississippi this
morning. As a result, storms have struggled to overcome the
capping inversion and the best we have been able to muster is some
showers across southeastern Mississippi all in spite of some
instability and more than adequate shear. However, this will have
little effect on this afternoon and evenings round of storms which
still look to be on track. Guidance has slowed up this round and
it might be more of an afternoon to evening threat vs a midday to
evening threat as the main upper trough pivots over the area. All
severe hazards remain on the table this afternoon. BB-8

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The primary focus for the next 24 hours will be on the evolution of
showers and thunderstorms across the area posing an isolated threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms. Latest high resolution guidance
has gradually shifted towards a semi-continuous threat for strong to
severe storms, beginning prior to daybreak after 3 AM near and west
of the I-65 corridor, gradually overspreading the entire area as we
head into late morning and continuing into the evening hours. The
overall severe threat is expected to gradually wane after sunset,
with any lingering threat ending by late evening. Damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain possible with any
storms. If a storm can mature enough to produce a tornado, there
remains the conditional threat for a strong tornado given the
expected favorable overlap of shear and instability and anticipated
storm mode. More on this and a breakdown of how things are expected
to evolve can be found below.

Prior to daybreak west of the I-65 corridor, the anticipation is for
an initial shortwave pushing across the area to trigger isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along a lifting warm front.
Overall model guidance has been struggling to keep up with the
quality of moisture return this evening, with latest comparisons
between CAMs and RTMA analysis and surface observations showing CAM
guidance lagging behind by a couple hours on the rate of moisture
return overall. This is resulting in differences of anticipated
dewpoints being upwards of 3 degrees off compared to reality. This
will likely play a role in the magnitude of destabilization
overnight. Adjusting for this would lead to the expectation of
adequate instability to be in place for the first potential round of
severe weather west of the I-65 corridor, starting over interior
southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama between 3am and
8am, spreading east to the I-65 corridor by mid to late morning. The
expectation at this point is for around 500 to 1,000j/kg of MLCAPE
to be present for the entire warm sector prior to daybreak,
increasing to 1,500j/kg by mid morning. There will be ample shear in
place with latest guidance continuing to depict 200 to 300 m2/s2 of
low level SRH yielding large, curved low level hodographs and deep
layer shear values approaching 50 knots. 25 to 30 knot storm
relative wind along with the magnitude of deep layer shear would
support discrete to semi-discrete supercells and perhaps supercell
clusters ranging between our local favorite of mini spinnies and
more classic supercell structures. Any storms that can develop and
mature in this environment could pose the treat for damaging winds
and tornadoes, and considering the magnitude of shear and
expectation for instability, a strong tornado can not be ruled out.
By no means is this going to be a widespread event with modest
forcing, but at least an isolated threat for the above hazards is
expected at this point. Additionally, any storms that become elevated
could pose the threat for small hail during the morning hours.

As we head into mid morning attention shifts to the entire area.
While our initial shortwave departs there remain subtle pieces of
positive vorticity advection within the broader flow that could
continue to trigger showers and thunderstorms. The greatest concern
at this point appears to be honing in on the I-65 corridor where CAM
guidance has been somewhat persistent on the development of a pre-
frontal trough/confluence band that would help to bolster the
potential for thunderstorm development via a local maximization of
low level convergence. The environment will remain favorable for
isolated severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards
including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Low level SRH
values diminish to 150 to 200 m2/s2, but low level instability
significantly increases with 3CAPE values approaching 150j/kg. Our
low level SRI also decreases to near 25kts, favoring mini spinnies
as the storm mode. One thing mini spinnies seem to thrive on down
here is high low level instability coupled with adequate shear, so
it will certainly be something to keep an eye on despite the general
lack of better forcing mid to late morning. Given the potential for
strong low level stretching owing to the high 3CAPE values and the
shear in place, it stands to reason that a conditional threat for a
strong tor could continue through the afternoon hours in association
with this prefrontal trough activity.

As we continue into the afternoon and evening, the main trough
begins to generate height falls across the area with a continuation
of a favorable environment capable of damaging winds and tornadoes.
Instability steadily increases with 3CAPE values approaching 150 to
200j/kg and MLCAPE values increasing to near 2,00j/kg. Deep layer
shear increases to 50 to 55 knots while low level SRH sustains
itself near 150m2/s2. Our low level jet does weaken somewhat to only
25 knots, however hodographs remain long and slightly curved which
should continue to foster an isolated tornado threat. SRI remains
rather weak around 25 knots which should continue to promote mini
spinnies. If storm mergers occur and help generate larger, more
robust updrafts, I could see a large hail threat materialize out of
a storm or two. This would be thanks to the generally elongated,
somewhat straighter deep layer hodographs, weaker SRI, and more
robust instability within the hail growth zone that develops late
afternoon into the evening hours. The cold front progresses across
the area from west to east during the evening, gradually bringing an
end to the severe weather threat by late evening for all of the
forecast area.

In the wake of the cold front, we quickly dry out and cool off as we
head into the day Wednesday through the end of the week. It`s been a
while since we`ve seen below normal temperatures, but expect highs
to be in the middle to upper 50`s for most locations Thanksgiving
and Friday. Overnight lows will be cold, in the middle to upper 30`s
for most locations Wednesday night. Our next freeze is anticipated
Thursday night as lows dip into the upper 20`s to lower 30`s over
the interior and middle to upper 30`s nearer the coast. We begin a
gradual warming trend into the weekend and early next week as a warm
air advection regime once again takes hold, with our next potential
impactful weather system beginning to affect the area as we get into
late weekend and early next week with the return of showers and
thunderstorms. Details are murky at this point given large
variability in the overall progress of upper troughs/shortwaves,
however there is a signal for potential severe weather once again as
we head into early next week. For local beaches, a Moderate risk of
rip currents will continue through Wednesday evening, becoming a low
risk Thursday into Friday, with a rapid increase to a Moderate risk
by Friday night and High risk Saturday expected. MM/25&&

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions have returned to the area with some mid to high
clouds. Isolated to scattered showers and storms across
southeastern Mississippi will continue to drift northwest this
morning and slowly weaken with time. A second round of storms will
likely develop this afternoon and drift eastward through the early
evening. Storms could be strong to severe with the potential for
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. An VFR ceiling is
expected to persist through the day today, with MVFR ceilings and
visbys around any of the showers and storms this afternoon. Winds
will remain out of the southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots
through daybreak, becoming 10 to 15 knots Tuesday with gusts to
near 20 knots at times. Winds shift out of the west to northwest
tonight at around 5 to 10 knots in the wake of a cold front. IFR
ceilings will develop around midnight in the wake of the cold
front. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A moderate onshore flow continues ahead of an approaching storm
system from the west. A cold front will push through the coastal
waters Wednesday morning, with a moderate to strong offshore flow
developing in the wake of the front and persisting through Friday.
Winds will become more easterly by Saturday, but still in the
moderate to strong range, as high pressure moves into the Mid-
Atlantic states. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed
Wednesday night through Thursday morning for most of the marine
area. Small Craft will continue to need to exercise caution into
the weekend, with the potential for advisory criteria winds to
return for portions of the marine area over the weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      80  58  71  39 /  60  40   0   0
Pensacola   79  63  74  43 /  40  50  10   0
Destin      78  65  75  46 /  30  60  10   0
Evergreen   80  56  70  36 /  60  60   0   0
Waynesboro  80  52  66  35 /  80  40   0   0
Camden      78  53  66  35 /  70  60   0   0
Crestview   80  60  74  38 /  30  60  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$