097
FXUS64 KMOB 091121
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 519 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

  - Temperatures plunge into the upper 20s to low 30s for
    locations generally north of I-10 by sunrise this morning.

  - Breezy conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon ahead of
    the next front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Much drier and colder air continues to filter into the area early
this morning behind a potent cold front. Temperatures have already
crashed into the 30s inland with low 40s at the beaches as of
midnight. Temperatures will continue to tumble down into the upper
20s to low 30s across inland communities with upper 30s at the
beaches by around sunrise. The forecast remains on track this
morning and through the rest of the period.

High pressure builds into the area in the wake of the cold front
today. Expect one more day and night of chilly temperatures before
the roller coaster of temperatures begins. The pressure gradient
increases across the area on Wednesday between the surface high over
the Gulf and a quick-moving surface low pivoting across the Great
Lakes region. Onshore flow ramps up with breezy conditions expected
in the afternoon on Wednesday, especially across the northern half
of our area. Temperatures quickly rebound on Wednesday in this
regime with highs topping out in the 60s - a few spots may even
approach 70. A weak cold front will sag into the area late
Wednesday as the surface low jet sets off to the northeast.
Temperatures will nose dive back into the 30s and 40s Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. High pressure moves back into the
area on Thursday in the wake of that front. Steady onshore flow
develops on the backside of the high as it continues to trek
eastward, so expect another moderating trend with the temperatures.
The warmest day in the forecast period is Saturday with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s area-wide. Yet another front
slides into the area early on Sunday. While moisture return isn`t
optimal for this front (similar to the previously mentioned front),
we cannot rule out some rain showers in the morning hours. The
blended forecast is dry right now, but don`t be surprised if we see
rain chances start to creep up, especially west of I-65. Overnight
temperatures crash into the 30s and 40s again Sunday night into
Monday morning. The next chance for more substantial rain will
probably come in the middle of next week.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through the weekend in
the current pattern. However, the current probabilistic data has
started showing the possibility of reaching a MODERATE risk in the
late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday for our Florida
beaches, especially Destin. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Other than some patchy fog this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through tonight. Light northerly winds early this morning
gradually switch to a southeasterly to southwesterly flow this
afternoon. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Northerly winds will continue to gradually relax early this
morning. Westerly to southwesterly winds are expected in the
middle to end of the week. Southerly winds develop on Friday and
Saturday ahead of another cold front that slides through late in
the weekend. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      56  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   56  45  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      57  46  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   57  32  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  55  34  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      54  33  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   57  32  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$