203
FXUS64 KMOB 030545
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

  - Heavy rainfall potential sets up Thursday through the end of
    the week.

  - A moderate rip current risk returns for the beaches of Alabama
    and the Florida Panhandle on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Cold air advection processes and post frontal clouds contribute to
a chilly day today. May be some patchy drizzle here and there but
measurable precipitation is not expected. Aloft, a west southwest
flow is shown in the 02.12Z upper air data with drier deep layer
air spreading eastward over the deep south. In the lower levels
and at the surface, a shallow post frontal, cold season subsidence
inversion appears to be in place tonight which would support
overnight clouds causing havoc with mins. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, with low level overcast hanging back well west,
back into Arkansas and Louisiana lends credence to make an upward
adjustment to tonight`s lows ranging 29 to 34 north of I-10 and
upper 30s/lower 40s closer to the coast. Wednesday remains dry and
cool as high pressure eases eastward over the deep south.

The upper level pattern once again becomes active in short order
as we move into the close of the week. A positively tilted upper
trof diving into the 4-Corners of the Desert Southwest becomes
increasingly elongated and splits through Thursday as the northern
portion continues across the northeast states. The remainder of
the upper trof will be located roughly over the central Plains to
across the southwest states on Thursday and into Friday. Ahead of
this feature, a stream of enhanced environmental moisture sets up
from the southeast US, all the way back to southwest of the Baja.
The pattern resembles an upper level atmospheric river where a
series of mid-level impulses will be moving across. At the
surface, a series of frontal low pressure systems begin to form
off the Texas coast by Thursday AM with PoPs increasing from west
to east as early as Wednesday night as larger scale lift
increases/expands. We could very well see a pattern similar to the
one Monday night where a wave of frontal low pressure skirts east
northeast near the coast or more over the marine area Friday.
Will need to closely monitor the trajectory of the surface low and
attendant warm front/warm sector as the potential would exist for
more surface based convection south of this feature. Too early to
assess storm risk, mode and placement at this time. Likely to
categorical pops though remain unchanged for both Thursday and
Friday. There is a signal for modest probabilities in the longer
range guidance for the potential of heavy rain the end of the week
too. Considering this, a marginal risk of excessive rainfall is
outlooked for the central Gulf coast Thursday and Friday.
Forecasters maintain a chance to perhaps likely PoPs into the day
Saturday before rain chances diminish the remainder of the period.

Daytime highs remain cool the remainder of the week and may need
lower adjustments Thursday and Friday considering clouds and
overrunning rainfall. Nights also remain cool.

A high risk of rip currents remains today, transitioning to a
moderate risk for Tuesday night. A low risk follows for Wednesday
and Thursday then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Regional surface observations and satellite imagery are detecting
solid ceiling ranging from 900-1400 feet over the entire area.
Given the abundant moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion,
these ceilings will persist through daybreak Wednesday. The clouds
are expected to clear out by 15-18z Wednesday at the latest. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A moderate offshore flow this evening begins to subside late in
the night. Light north to northeast winds Wednesday become
easterly Thursday and begin to gradually increase through the
course of the day. A wave of frontal low pressure is progged to
move east northeast across area waters Friday morning. A return to
building seas the end of the week. Rains also increase late in
the week with perhaps embedded storms. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      32  57  42  53 /   0   0  40  90
Pensacola   37  58  47  55 /   0   0  30  80
Destin      39  59  47  58 /   0   0  20  70
Evergreen   30  58  37  53 /   0   0  10  80
Waynesboro  26  56  35  48 /   0   0  40  80
Camden      28  53  33  49 /   0   0  10  70
Crestview   31  59  38  53 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$