079
FXUS63 KMPX 020835
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
235 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southerly winds gust between 30-40 mph today.

- Mild temperatures for the work week, along with a few minor rain
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Early Sunday morning satellite imagery captures an area of mid-level
stratus drifting east across western WI, mostly clear skies over
much of the southern half of MN, and an expansive deck of cirrostratus
across northern MN. The high clouds to the north are associated
with a developing surface low pressure system across southern
Canada. In fact, they are located on the nose of a wing of warm
air advection which will support a warmer afternoon across the
region. Working in tandem with the warming mid-level temperatures
will be strong surface winds which are forecast to gust between
30-40 mph from mid-morning through the afternoon. Guidance
advertises a roughly ~990mb surface low, however some solutions
run stronger in the upper 980s mb range. The pressure gradient
will tighten across the Upper Midwest as a result of the
deepening low, which makes the wind gust forecast one of high
confidence. Afternoon highs climb into the low to mid 50s as a
result of the warm advection/southerly surface winds. The
warmest temperatures (low 60s) are forecast across far western
MN. The system`s trailing cold front is progged to slide from
northwest to southeast through the forecast area this afternoon
and evening. Winds will turn westerly following the frontal
passage. We anticipate a dry frontal passage for most locations
given a notable lack of moisture in the low to mid levels on
forecast soundings. The best chance for a few passing raindrops
will be across western WI from roughly 5-9 PM.

Large scale ridging will build over the northern CONUS tomorrow.
Little change in the airmass and a slight warming of the 850mb T`s
through tomorrow afternoon will allow for afternoon highs to climb a
few degrees warmer than today. Warm advection will continue to
increase heading into Tuesday as a result of a weak impulse
traversing the zonal upper-level flow over the Great Plains. We
should once again observe highs climbing a few more degrees from the
previous day, which supports highs in the mid to upper 50s for most
of the area Tuesday afternoon. A more influential shortwave aims to
dive southeast from Saskatchewan towards the Great Lakes Tuesday
evening into Wednesday morning. Precipitation chances continue to
appear rather meager for our forecast area during this time period.
Better chances will be located along the baroclinic zone which is
forecast set to setup across northern MN. For this reason, see
no reason to expand upon the slight chance PoPs that are located
along our border with WFO DLH.

A couple more shortwaves are forecast to move through the Upper
Midwest Thursday through Saturday. Each model cycle reveals variance
in the timing and strength of each shortwave, thus there are fairly
significant differences on if/when precipitation will occur. The
consensus solution shows precipitation associated with the Thu/Fri
wave activating across WI, which would support a mostly dry forecast
locally. However, the final shortwave in this series looks to be the
strongest and is reflected in the grids with 30-40 percent PoPs next
weekend. In addition, the majority of global ensemble members
produce precipitation in the Saturday timeframe. Conceptually, the
seasonably colder air flowing south following the first shortwave
will likely be reinforced heading into Saturday. With this in mind,
the forecast features highs in the low to mid 50s later in the work
week followed by the cooler highs in the 40s for Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR cigs/vis are expected to persist through the 6z TAF period
at all terminals. The main weather related aviation concern
will be breezy southerly winds later this morning through early
this evening. The increasing winds are due to the tightening of
the pressure gradient ahead of a cold frontal passage set to
occur later today. Peak gusts will approach 30kts through the
day. The passage of the cold front will result in a westerly
wind shift. It`s possible that an couple of isolated raindrops
may accompany the frontal passage (with the best chances at
RNH/EAU), however low-level dry air will likely win out thus no
mention in the TAFs is warranted at this time.

KMSP...Main concern will be with southerly winds that are
forecast to gust between 25-30kts from late morning through the
afternoon. Winds will turn westerly following the passage of a
cold front between 02-06z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE bcmg E 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NNW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Strus