546
FXUS63 KMPX 301248
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remnant light snow ends from west to east this morning.

- Weak clipper system provides a potential for snow showers
  Wednesday.

- Colder than normal conditions continue through the first week
  of December, with the first widespread sub-zero morning of
  the season looking likely Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Latest surface analysis this morning shows low pressure entering
the Chicagoland region of Illinois and continuing northeast.
The western edge of that system (which brought us this
snowfall), is seen well on nighttime microphysics. Stratus
coupled with light snow is still working on clearing out of the
eastern half of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Snow should
continue to taper off from west to east through this morning and
all should be snow-free around noon if not sooner. Storm total
snowfall amounts as of 12 AM for our climate sites were: NWS
Twin Cities were 6.5 inches, MSP Int`l Airport at 3.9 inches,
and EAU 4.0 inches. More measurements across the area should
begin to filter in by mid- morning. As always, feel free to
provide your snow total measurement via social media or emailing
our office as its greatly appreciated!

Now that this low has passed, the "fun" part of this winter
storm arrives, i.e. cold temperatures. Colder air is being
channeled between the aforementioned low to our SE and building
high pressure to the west. Across much of MN, breezy NNW`ly
gusts are being reported to range between 20-25mph. These winds
could create a few areas of blowing snow over the next couple of
hours before decreasing this morning. Overcast skies should
transition to partial sunshine by this afternoon. Forecast highs
today will depend on your location. Areas across western MN and
closer to the region of high pressure will see highs in the
teens. Areas east of the St. Croix River Valley will reach reach
the low 20s. Lows area wide tonight will be near 0 degrees.

Surface high pressure continues moving SE`ward into Iowa and
reaching its peak strength ~1036mb Monday. Forecast high
temperature distribution appears uniform near the 20 degree
mark. Skies for most folks will be mostly cloudy although some
sun might try and break through the clouds across southwestern
MN. Lows Monday night will range in the single digits. By
Tuesday, temperatures warm up slightly into lower 20s.

By Wednesday, upper-level troughing sinks southward over the
Hudson Bay below in the mid-levels, a clipper system develops
over Saskatchewan and heads ESE across the Int`l border.
Forecast guidance currently favors a chance of snow showers
during the daytime hours. As of now, snowfall accumulations look
to be only minor featuring a trace up to a half-inch possible.
Strongest chances for any snow to fall are up near Lake Superior
which is outlined well by the latest NBM. Temperatures once
again will be kicked down post-FROPA. Highs will return to the
teens and lows nearing the double digits below zero for early
Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Snowfall has shown significant signs of waning per KMPX radar
over the past hour, and this trend will continue such that by
about 14z, any and all snow is expected to cease. Ceilings will
still dip down into MVFR range for much of the day before
lifting and partially clearing out this evening through tonight.
Another round of MVFR ceilings is possible after sunrise
tomorrow. NW winds around 12G22kt at initialization will drop in
speed to at-or-below 10kts by late morning and continue to drop
to light/variable tonight through sunrise Monday morning.

KMSP...Snow is ending over MSP at initialization, with
visibility already back to VFR levels. However, ceilings may dip
down to MVFR by late morning and continue as such through the
afternoon before partial clearing takes hold tonight. Another
round of low ceilings looks likely late Monday morning but
ceilings at MSP may remain just above MVFR thresholds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR ceilings likely, chance IFR ceilings. Chance -SN
overnight. Wind SW 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR ceilings likely, chance -SN early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC