737
FXUS63 KMPX 110052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow ends in eastern MN/western WI this evening. Minor
  accumulations possible until it departs.

- Another snow-bearing system arrives late morning tomorrow in
  SW MN, spreads east into the afternoon/evening.

- Bitter cold this weekend, coldest Sunday morning with wind
  chills dropping from -30 to -35F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

We continue to see light snow falling across portions of eastern
Minnesota into western Wisconsin this afternoon as some
lingering upper level forcing on top of the low level stratus is
enough to squeeze some flakes out of a shallow DGZ. This
activity is expected to taper off into the evening with the
strongest echoes pushing southeast towards Rochester over the
next few hours, following the track of the lingering upper level
forcing. Additional accumulations have ranged from around 0.5
to 1 inch at the most in the stronger bands, with a few tenths
of an inch for those who just saw some nuisance lighter snow.
The forcing will continue to weaken overnight as the upper level
occluded low spinning over the northern Great Lakes will begin
to progress eastwards as upper level flow tilts more westerly
over the northern CONUS ahead of our next incoming system.

Speaking of which, yet another chance for snow will arrive late
Thursday morning in western MN with a significant amount of
model disparity leading to uncertainty even as we are within 24
hours of the start of precipitation for the area. The blended
NBM guidance shows a large footprint of QPF and snow across the
southern half of the MPX CWA due to the influence of the longer
range CAM guidance taking the surface low much farther northeast
than the deterministic synoptic guidance, which is in turn
farther east than the ensemble/AIFS guidance which has been the
overall winner as far as location of systems goes over our last
few systems. The AIFS ensemble mean keeps the low pressure
center over western Nebraska, compared to the 12z HRRR which
brings it to SW MN resulting in almost a 200 mile difference in
the position of the surface low. This will obviously have an
extremely large impact on the forecast not only in how much QPF
there is, but also precipitation types as the 540 line looks to
cross through the surface system resulting in the potential for
multiple wintry p-types. If the trend we have experienced over
the last few events continues, we would expect the high
resolution and synoptic guidance to trend towards the AIFS over
the next few model runs, which would push the highest QPF and
potential for mixed p-types towards our neighboring offices to
the east including FSD/ABR. As such, our forecast reflects our
latest thinking in that the western solution should be favored,
resulting in lower QPF and therefore snow amounts across the
area. This would also limit our p-types to only snow, keeping
the potential for a wintry mix including freezing rain to our
west and south. Snow amounts ranging from around 1-2 inches in
southwestern MN along the Minnesota River and along I-90 would
decrease to around 0.5 to 1 inch in Mankato, further decreasing
to under 0.5 inches for the rest of the area. A secondary upper
level trough moving through Manitoba could also force an area of
CVA, resulting in a few light snow showers near sunrise Friday,
favoring along and north of I-94 with a few tenths of an inch
of additional accumulation possible.

Behind the last of the light snow on Friday morning, we look to
dry out and cool off significantly as an arctic high drops
down bringing the coldest air of the season over the weekend,
with the overall coldest period from Saturday night through
Sunday morning. The aforementioned Manitoba upper level system
looks to settle over the northern Great Lakes, with stacked
northwesterly flow across the entire troposphere and an influx
of arctic air including in the lower levels on Saturday. High
temperatures may struggle to stay above zero throughout the day
as the cold air moves in with 850mb temps of -20 to -25C by 00z
Saturday evening. The cold air and subsidence will drop to the
surface with temperatures as cold as -15 to -20F early Sunday,
with enough surface wind to force wind chills as cold as -30 to
-35F. We may need some cold headlines for Sunday in particular,
but will hold off for now as we still have a few days before it
arrives and the forecast may fluctuate just a little bit. The
cold air is locked in however so headline or not, prepare for a
cold few nights over the weekend!

There are some bright lights at the end of the cold tunnel, as
Monday looks to see a significant resurgence of warmer air into
the region in the lower levels, with 850mb temps surging above
freezing by 15-18z as upper level flow shifts more westerly
kicking the colder arctic air to the east. This warmer trend
continues next week with our low level temperatures remaining
above freezing such that high temperatures beginning Tuesday
through the week should be near or even above freezing,
resulting in some minor snow melt throughout the week.
Additional precipitation also looks absent with a lack of
forcing, with our next chance for some light precipitation
arriving towards the very end of the period on Thursday meaning
low confidence for now. Ensemble guidance showcases the warmup
nicely, although most trend the model mean back towards our
normal mid to upper 20s highs in the metro with lows in the
teens by late week and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The last vestiges of this afternoon`s deformation band snow are
wrapping up, thus aside from some VFR flurries, all sites will
remain dry through sunrise Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings will
generally remain in place through the overnight hours, then
creep up to VFR during the day. However, this is before another
weak round of snowfall arrives late Thursday afternoon, steadily
pushing across central-southern MN into western WI. Some heavier
bursts may produce visibility down to 1sm but accumulations will
be rather light, generally an inch or less. MVFR ceilings will
then continue into the Thursday evening hours. NW winds at
initialization will eventually go light/variable overnight then
pick up to 5-10kts from the SE after sunrise Thursday.

KMSP...A few flurries are around at initialization but these
will be largely insignificant, with dry conditions to follow
through the rest of the night into the first half of Thursday.
Still a chance for some light snow mid-to-late afternoon
Thursday through Thursday evening, only amounting to around an
inch total at most over a roughly 6-hr period. Some models have
no snow during that timeframe, so will continue to carry the
PROB30 designation. Ceilings will generally run within MVFR
range, although some partial clearing may develop near sunrise
through late morning before coverage increases ahead of the
potential incoming snowfall.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/SN early. VFR late. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10G20kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W early, bcmg S 5-10kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC