184
FXUS63 KMPX 150713
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
113 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler this weekend behind a cold front with seasonable
  temperatures continuing this week.

- Light snow possible Monday night into Tuesday morning across
  southern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Overnight temepratures in the 50s are still very warm for mid-
November across much of Minnesota & Wisconsin after a record-
breaking warm day, but this will change as a cold front moves
southeastwards through the morning. A few sprinkles are possible
with the frontal passage this morning but dry air near the
surface should keep most areas dry. Temperatures will fall into
the 40s through the day with northwest winds gusting up to 25-30
mph behind the fronts providing plenty of cold advection. Drier
air behind the front could also drop RH values below 30% across
much of the area this afternoon, leading to elevated fire
weather conditions with the breezy winds. Similar temperatures
in the 40s are expected for Sunday but winds will be lighter
with a weaker pressure gradient across the region.

A shortwave passes south of the area through the Mid-Mississippi
valley on Monday & Tuesday, with light precipitation possible up
into central Minnesota & Wisconsin depending on the northern
extent of the precipitation shield. Ensemble guidance shows the
highest probabilities for at least 0.10" of precipitation along
the Minnesota-Iowa border, with probabilities decreasing into
central Minnesota & Wisconsin. Deterministic model guidance
shows a fairly sharp gradient to the northern edge of the
precipitation shield which may keep most of the precipitation
south of our area, but differ on how far north the track of the
shortwave may take. Any precipitation that falls Monday
afternoon will likely fall as rain, but probabilities for snow
increase after dark into Tuesday morning when temperatures could
approach freezing. As a result, we could see less than an inch
of slushy snow across southern Minnesota by Tuesday morning but
any travel impacts this may cause should be minor.

Dry conditions are expected midweek as ridging builds into the
midwest behind the Monday-Tuesday shortwave. Precipitation
chances return late in the week as models suggest a fairly
potent system developing somewhere to our south over the central
plains/Mid-Mississippi valley. Again, our precipitation chances
will depend on how far north the precipitation shield extends,
with that remaining uncertain at this time given the wide
spread in the forecast strength & track of the potential system.
Temperature anomalies should be on the warmer end of normal by
all indications, so any precipitation from this late week
system would be rain more likely than snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Main focus in the short term portion of the TAF period is a wind
shift that is occurring from northwest to southeast this
evening. Latest TAFs have tightened up the wind directional
changes associated with the frontal passage through daybreak.
Could have a few sprinkles out there, however coverage will be
much too low to include in the TAFs and any occurrence should be
brief with little reduction in visibility. A short period of
VFR cigs around ~10k feet will follow the wind shift.
Northwesterly winds will sustain between 10-15kts throughout
Saturday, with peak afternoon gusts near 25kts. Winds then
diminish by late afternoon/early evening, with mostly clear
skies to end the 6z period.

KMSP...Winds turn westerly early in the period as the front
moves through. Potential for any showers remains too low to
include in the TAF. Bumped up northwesterly wind gusts a few
knots tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon. VFR through the 6z period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR late. Wind NE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -RASN/MVFR early. Wind E 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Strus