988
FXUS63 KMPX 022034
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
234 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
  tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
  with a pair of weak clipper systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Taking a look at satellite over southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin this afternoon, a lower stratus deck is clearing the
area into central Wisconsin. These clouds were saturated in the
dendritic growth zone, meaning flurries were falling pretty much
anywhere there was this lower cloud cover. A dusting was
reported at a few locations, but nothing significant in terms of
accumulation resulted from those flurries. The sun has since
peeked out along the MN/WI border. Mid to high level clouds
are moving in, meaning the clear skies will be brief, with MSP
already reporting scattered clouds at 15,000ft. Temperatures are
holding in the upper teens to low 20s, with slightly warmer
temps in the areas with the aforementioned stratus hanging on.

The better chance for a trace to few tenths of snow
accumulation will arrive later tonight as a surface low swings
in from the Dakotas. The associated fronts and modest swath of
moisture will likely be enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours tomorrow.
Little snow accumulation is expected with this system, but
scattered trace to few tenths of snowfall are possible when you
wake up tomorrow morning. Looking ahead, this pattern of light
snow events looks to continue through the period. The AIFS
depicts several chances for low-end, but measurable, snow
events through the forecast period. This is in line with the
upper-level pattern that other models are forecasting. The most
impactful shortwave appears to be this weekend, with agreement
in the presence of precip, but disagreement in exact placement.

The temperatures can be forecast with more certainty as an
appreciable surge of cold air will scoop south. Even with
clearing skies due to high pressure moving in Wednesday into
Thursday, 850mb temps drop as low as 15C to 20C below zero.
This will translate to highs on Wednesday in the single digits
to the teens followed by possibly record-low minimum
temperatures early Thursday morning (between 10 to 15 degrees F
below zero). The Twin Cities Metro area will be spared from the
coldest temps, bottoming out around 8 below zero due to the
Urban Heat Island. Beyond Thursday morning, there is no sign of
any appreciable warm up. Overnight lows in the single digits and
afternoon highs in the teens to low 20s through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Late morning satellite image depicts low stratus lifting to the
northeast across far eastern MN/western WI. The snow-growth
layer is collocated within the MVFR/IFR stratus, so periods of
MVFR flurries are possible this afternoon at RNH and EAU. VFR
mid-to-high clouds are increasing over western MN and will
continue to spread east through this afternoon.

A cold front will move through from northwest to southeast
tonight and may produce a period of MVFR -SHSN at each terminal,
however, there is low confidence in how far west precipitation
will activate along the front. Converted PROB30s to TEMPOs where
confidence in MVFR -SHSN was the highest. Low MVFR/high IFR
cigs likely accompany the snow showers. A quarter inch or snow
of snow accumulation will be possible at all terminals. MVFR
stratus and breezy northwest winds will linger into tomorrow
following the frontal passage. It`s possible that future TAFs
will need to make a more aggressive mention of flurries/vis
reductions tomorrow morning, as forecast soundings have trended
in the direction of prolonged saturation in the snow-growth
layer.

KMSP...Low stratus is quickly existing to the northeast late
this morning, though we have opted to include a one hour TEMPO
for MVFR vis/cigs to open the 18z window. Flight conditions will
continue to improve this afternoon, with light winds out of the
south. The passage of a cold front will bring a quick hitting
round of light snow tonight, as represented by the TEMPO from
03-07z. Winds turn northwesterly following the front and will
gust upwards of 20 knots through tomorrow morning. Low confidence
in how long flurries linger following the FROPA and may need to
extend -SHSN mention in forthcoming TAFs. Latest forecast
supports the potential for a 0.2-0.3" coating of snow
accumulation tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Strus