142
FXUS63 KMPX 101150
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, with only a slim chances for flurries
  overnight tonight in Wisconsin.

- Today will be the last day with highs in the 30s for at least
  a week, with seasonable highs through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Cloud cover eroded away for most earlier this evening, bringing
any lingering flurries to an end. Broken to overcast low-level
clouds remain across far western and central Minnesota, allowing
Morrison and Todd counties to remain four or five degrees
warmer than surrounding locations. Elsewhere, temperatures have
dropped into the low 20s and upper teens with mostly clear
skies. Scattered cloud cover will move back in later today ahead
of a mild airmass advecting toward the region from the western
CONUS. A few forecast soundings depict the potential for more of
the cosmetic flurries in western Wisconsin overnight tonight.
Shallow DGZ saturation would need to overcome a dry layer at the
surface, even if this happened, nothing more than a few flakes
are likely around midnight. However, have opted to add flurries
to the weather grids to reflect this chance.

As the system that brought us this burst of cold air exits
towards the Great Lakes, ridging will build and bring our
temperatures back to near normal by Tuesday. This will also
contribute to a benign weather pattern through the workweek with
high pressure overhead. Dry conditions are expected everywhere
(with the exception of the aforementioned potential flurries)
through Friday. Scattered clouds are expected through the week,
but it won`t be a period where the sun won`t shine. Wednesday
looks to have the most sun, followed by early Friday.

Northwest surface winds will dominate through early Thursday
before becoming south- southeasterly, and ushering some milder
air. On Thursday, the southern half of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin should see highs in the 50s, about 5 degrees above
normal for mid- November. Friday and Saturday will be even
warmer, with a shot at 60 for those in and south of the Twin
Cities.

Next weekend continues to be the target of opportunity for any
active weather. An upper level trough will dig across the
country, but vast uncertainty in the strength and track of the
associated surface low warrant low confidence in what will
actually happen in our neck of the woods. Given forecast warmer
than normal temperatures, if this system does impact us, it will
likely remain rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Low-level clouds are moving in from the north again after a
break overnight. Cigs will be right around the VFR/MVFR
threshold this morning, before rising to mid-level this
afternoon. AXN will see the poorest conditions, but even that is
only MVFR cigs. Winds will continue to shift towards
south/southwesterly through the period, remaining steady between
5-15kts, strongest at AXN, RWF, MKT and MSP later in the period.

KMSP...Low to mid-level VFR clouds are moving in, with a period
of MVFR cigs possible this morning. Skies should scatter out
slightly this morning and lift to VFR cigs by this afternoon.
Winds will shift from northwesterly to south/southwesterly
through the period and remain steady between 10-15 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW to SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV