198
FXUS63 KMPX 151721
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1221 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Intermittent drizzle/sprinkles/showers are expected across
  much of our coverage area through Thursday with continued
  cloudy skies.

- Cool temperatures today become much warmer Thursday and Friday
  ahead of the next frontal system which will bring additional
  rainfall to the area.

- A cooler, drier air mass settles in for the weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A rather moist and stable airmass will remain in place across
our coverage area through tonight as the center of high pressure
shifts into the Great Lakes and a developing warm front over the
Central Plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley slowly
shifts northward. Sufficient isentropic lift within the low-to-
mid levels, aligning well with the higher moisture content, will
continue to produce intermittent rounds of
drizzle/sprinkles/showers over much of our coverage area,
particularly south of I-94 through sunset then overspreading
much of the area tonight into tomorrow. The precipitation will
not amount to much through Thursday afternoon, only amounting to
up to about a quarter inch of rain, but that it will take the
form of drizzle/sprinkles at times will reduce visibility from
time to time. This will also keep the low stratus clouds in
place which will reduce temperatures to rather small diurnal
ranges today into tomorrow. Highs will only reach the low-mid
50s today (possibly upper 50s along the IA border) with lows
tonight from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The front to the south will quickly and effectively move north
of our coverage area tomorrow, allowing for a strong surge of
unseasonably warm air into the Upper Midwest for Thursday. So
even with the expected rainfall to continue for the first half
of the day, even the littlest bit of clearing combined with
ridging moving into the region which will increase the H7-H5
heights, the warming scenario will push highs on Thursday into
the mid 60s in western WI to the mid 70s in western MN. The cold
front associated with this frontal system is not expected to
push through the region until late day Friday, thus the warmer
air will remain over the WFO MPX coverage area Thursday night
through the daytime hours on Friday. This will result in lows
ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s, followed by highs on
Friday still in the mid 60s to lower 70s. A brief round of
showers, potentially with a few weak t-storms, will push
through the area Friday afternoon-evening, again producing only
up to around a quarter of an inch of QPF. Post-front, another
airmass change will be apparent as colder/seasonable
temperatures follow the front but skies will be clearing out and
a drier airmass will arrive which should make for a rather nice
fall weekend. Highs will drop back to the 50s to lower 60s while
lows plunge to the 30s and 40s.

A brief warm up is possible early next week, but already by
Monday we begin to see spread grow between the deterministic
forecast models. The upper-level pattern becomes wavy but more
progressive as the blocking features over the western Atlantic
and eastern Canada breakdown. Models suggest that a couple of
shortwaves will pass through the Upper Midwest during the first
half of next week. The first chance for rain looks to be the
Monday afternoon into Monday night timeframe followed by another
chance mid-week. Neither system looks to be significant but is
something to watch if you have any outdoor activities planned or
are wondering to bring an umbrella for the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Low stratus with a few round of drizzle/sprinkles can be
expected through the rest of the daytime hours. Visibility
restrictions into the MVFR range while ceilings remain in the
IFR range, if not lower, will prevail into this evening. More
sustained showers can be expected during the overnight hours,
possibly into daybreak Thursday, so flight conditions will for
certain remain degraded going into at least the first half of
Thursday. E winds through tonight with speeds around 10 knots
will take a more SE direction after sunrise, with speeds
increasing to 10-15kts with gusts generally in the 20-25kt
range, though speeds may be a bit higher in western MN.

KMSP...IFR ceilings look to persist through the afternoon-
evening push today, with slow improvement to MVFR range, albeit
sub-2000ft, through the overnight hours. Showers can be expected
prior to the Thursday morning push, then continuing until late
morning. Gradual improvement looks to be the scenario for the
day tomorrow, but the improvement to VFR may be highly dependent
on the timing of the wind speed increase to help scour out the
low level moisture. Thus, if anything, MVFR ceilings may persist
longer than currently advertised.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC/CTG
AVIATION...JPC