006
FXUS63 KMPX 051206
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
606 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along
  I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected.

- Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and
  travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday.

- Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend,
  followed by yet another storm system with the potential for
  mixed precipitation early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

None of our CWA has yet to see snow from this morning`s approaching
clipper system. But, a swath of light snow should begin within the
next couple of hours over western MN and gradually spread east into
central MN and then WI throughout this morning. Onset of snow for
the Twin Cities will begin near 7 AM while WI will be closer to 8-9
AM. Latest CAMs have trended slightly farther south such that the
snow swath looks to track along I-94, with most areas within the
swath looking to receive 1-2". Areas very close to I-94 have the
potential to see amounts closer to 3" if some frontogenetical
forcing can produce briefly heavier snowfall rates. This system
should exit to the east of MN by late afternoon and our WI counties
this evening. This morning`s commute shouldn`t be impacted too
significantly but this afternoon`s commute will likely be quite slow
with the freshly fallen snow. Farther south, a dusting to a half
inch is possible. Even some spurts of freezing drizzle may occur
over southwestern MN as forecast soundings show loss of saturation
within the DGZ. Temperatures will continue to climb into this
afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s with even some
lower 30s in southwest MN.

Cold air following today`s clipper will cause Friday night`s lows to
drop into the single digits. Highs Saturday will only be in the
teens as the next wave within our clipper train arrives later in the
day. Latest guidance has trended a bit farther south with this
shortwave (the 00Z HREF shows the 700 hPa low near FSD/SUX by
Saturday evening) such that the heaviest snow potential is looking
to be more confined FSD and DMX`s CWAs. Still, longer-range CAMs and
deterministic models do show the northern periphery of the clipper`s
snow band passing over our southern MN counties Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Guidance consensus snowfall amounts range
between 1-3" with a possibility of up to 4", particularly along I-
90. A Winter Weather Advisory has not been issued yet but could see
one being warranted in future updates.

Cold air will once again follow Saturday`s clipper system with
negative single digit lows likely over western MN Saturday night and
then area wide Sunday night. While highs Sunday will reach the mid
single digits to mid teens, just enough north/northwesterly flow
could mean wind chills struggle to exceed 0 as surface high pressure
moves overhead. Highs Monday will rebound into the 20s as WAA occurs
ahead of the next forecast shortwave within the northwesterly flow.
This next wave should arrive during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
and looks quite interesting for our region. This wave will have more
of a Pacific origin such that EPS mean forecast PWAT anomaly reaches
200% of normal as the shortwave passes through the Northern Plains.
This system will need monitoring as it will be essentially a clipper
system working with the remnants of an atmospheric river. Greater
amounts of QPF would be more likely with this system, but surface
low placement will also be important as temperatures could get
pretty warm on the south side of the low leading to possible precip
type uncertainties. After moderating temperatures mid-next week,
long-range guidance favors another shot of cold air late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Biggest change from going TAFs is snow has come in a couple of
hours ahead of schedule. Otherwise, this snow looks to produce
3/4sm to 2sm visibilities. Highest amounts are expected at
STC/MSP/RNH/EAU, where a couple of inches of snow will be
possible today. Snow end times haven`t changed much, with a
gradual ending from west to east this afternoon, with snow
ending at EAU shortly after 00z. Low confidence in the cigs
tonight, with some models scattering clouds out, while others
keep us locked in the stratus. Tis the season for endless
stratus, so favored the clouds tonight for now.

KMSP...Snow will be with us for the first 8 or so hours of this
period. For the most part, we expect 1sm to 2sm visibility,
though from about 15z through 20z, an occasional 3/4sm -SN ob
will be possible. For cigs tonight, you can find any solution
you would like in the guidance between endless stratus to
clearing out. Given our cloud climatology this time of year, we
favored a cloudier forecast for tonight into Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...Likely VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...MVFR cigs. Slgt chc -SN. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG