609
FXUS63 KMPX 300854
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer-like weather continues into the beginning of October,
  with record highs possible both Friday and Saturday.

- Frontal timing for the weekend continues to slow down, with
  greatest precipitation potential looking to come Saturday
  night and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

One thing is for sure, the weather is ignoring the calendar this
week, with highs in the 80s looking to be common on a daily basis
through Saturday, with Friday and Saturday looking to have a good
chance at seeing highs crack the 90 degree mark both days along and
west of the I-35 corridor and along and south of I-94. Looking at
the climatology for highs of 90 or higher in October, St. Cloud has
had 4 days at or above 90 in its observed October history, the Twin
Cities has had 3, and Eau Claire none. So it`s not an over
exaggeration to say that Friday and Saturday will be two of the
warmest days ever observed in October for southern Minnesota. This
potential for beyond climatology warmth is supported by the ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) with a pretty sizable area with a
value of 1 (100%) for high temperatures, indicating the entirety of
the ensemble spread lies beyond the model climatology database. The
culprit for all of this warmth is the blocking high over the Great
Lakes, with a trough digging into the western CONUS. This is sending
a plume of very warm air north across central North America. For
precip, our mid-levels look too warm and dry to support any precip,
as we are seeing this morning. We`re seeing from the EPS and some of
the CAMS the potential for some accas type showers Wednesday
night/Thursday morning. However, back on Sunday, we were seeing the
potential for showers this morning, which the ridge has promptly
stomped out, so we`re not overly excited about the potential for
precipitation over MN Thursday morning with the ridge still in
control.

For the weekend, the biggest trend noted in the models is a slower
timing for the front. This isn`t a surprise given the strength of
the blocking high to the east that needs to be dislodged and the
positive tilt to the trough coming in from the west. PoPs for Friday
night really took a hit with the NBM update overnight, though they
still look overdone as most of the guidance now keeps the MPX area
dry with the slower eastward progression of the front. This slower
progression of the front is what led to the warmer outlook for highs
on Saturday as well, with cloud cover not really looking to increase
until Saturday night as the front moves into western MN. That front
will then work across the area during the day on Sunday. By the time
this front gets to the MPX area, it looks to be more of an anafront,
with the majority of the precip falling behind the front, which
should really limit and severe threat with it. One thing we`ll have
to watch is the trend with the timing of the front for the weekend
with the marathon happening Sunday. About 10 members of the EPS have
the front being slow enough that we`re still within the heart of the
warm sector on Sunday, with lows in the 70s and highs in the
mid/upper 80s. So although it is a lower probability outcome, you
can`t completely rule out the marathon this weekend having to deal
with some dangerous levels of heat and humidity. We`ll have to watch
the trend with the timing of the front closely over the next few
days.

Behind this front, high pressure will move in for the first half of
next week, which will bring about dry weather and temperatures near
normal, with highs retreating back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

It`s another quiet weather period, with the only potential bit
of excitement being the possibility for some accas up around
7k/8k feet with the deep southerly flow in place. Only small
chance for fog late tonight will come by the river there in
EAU.

KMSP...Yawn.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SSE 10G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SSW 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SSW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...MPG