919
FXUS63 KMPX 190710
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning in Western Wisconsin, with
  below freezing temperatures this freezing fog could lead to
  slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no
  significant precipitation chances over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today... Clear skies and calm winds over western Wisconsin this
morning has allowed for a radiational fog to develop. With the
cool temperatures this is a freezing fog which could lead to
slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces this morning. This
fog will burn off after sunrise as temperatures start to warm.
Farther to the west over Minnesota cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer and dense fog is not expected. Saturation is
high enough that some fog could still form in the typical low
lying spots and near bodies of water. Looking ahead to later
today, a shortwave will pass to our north and provide for
another chance for precipitation. Chances for accumulating
precipitation will be best over northern Minnesota where there
is better forcing. Despite the lack of forcing down here, there
does look to be a deep enough layer of saturation that we could
see some drizzle today. This is shown in high resolution models
with saturation generally from around 800 mb down to the
surface. With temperatures above freezing during the day, when
drizzle is most likely to occur, no impacts are expected.

Thursday through Monday... Continued northwest flow aloft
through this period. There are a few shortwaves riding along
this flow, but little moisture present to provide any good chances
for precipitation at this time. This is also reflected in
global ensemble systems with little to no precipitation present
among membership. These same systems also suggest continued mild
temperatures in the 40s to maybe even a few lower 50s. With
normal highs now around 40 this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
This makes sense as there is no snowpack yet over the Canadian
Prairies, where our northwest flow is coming from.

Tuesday towards Thanksgiving... By the middle of next week it
looks like there will be a change in the pattern just in time
for the holiday travel period. A larger wave looks to move
through the central CONUS in the global deterministic guidance.
Still far enough out that many of the details are uncertain,
which is reflected in spread among ensemble systems. While the
precipition impact around the holiday remains uncertain, what
is more certain is the colder air to follow this system and an
end to our mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1142 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main aviation concern tonight is dense freezing fog across
western Wisconsin where visibilities will hover around 1/4 to
1/2SM until a deck of stratus overspreads from the south.
Ceilings are generally low-end MVFR currently with this stratus
deck as it spreads northwards out of southern Minnesota, but
ceilings are expected to drop to IFR overnight. IFR ceilings
should persist through the morning at all terminals, with
gradual improvement to MVFR likely through the afternoon &
evening.

KMSP...Ceilings are expected to drop below 1000 ft by 3-4 AM, &
should stay there into at least early afternoon. SOme
improvement to MVFR looks possibly by mid to late afternoon, but
expect ceilings to remain MVFR into Thursday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...AM MVFR ceilings, becoming VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-
     Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA