299
FXUS63 KMPX 082223
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
423 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A burst of snow this evening across across central MN and
  northwest WI. Minor accumulations likely.

- Strong system Tuesday to bring an intense and narrow band of
  heavy snow. The rain/snow line looks to setup over the Twin
  Cities metro, with a strong snowfall gradient expected from
  southwest to northeast across the metro.

- Strong winds are expected Tuesday evening southwest of the
  low track, with gusts of 40-50 mph possible south I-94 in
  Minnesota

- Another round of light snow is possible late Thursday into
  Friday, primarily for western and southern Minnesota, with
  only minor accumulations expected.

- Very cold temperatures settle in by this weekend with wind
  chills approaching advisory criteria Friday night and Saturday
  night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Latest water vapor imagery highlights a train of shortwaves on track
to impact the Upper Midwest over the next several days. The first is
currently moving across Minnesota and the International border with
Canada that will produce a quick hit of snow this evening. Current
observations across western & central Minnesota reveal decreased
visibilities tied to the ongoing light snowfall. Lowest visibilities
are between 1SM & 2SM that will move eastward through the course of
the evening. The heaviest snow will fall north of our forecast area,
but 1 to 2" along central MN into NW WI with lighter amounts, half
inch to an inch, forecast elsewhere. Temperatures will warm through
the evening. Highs today will likely occur just before midnight, in
the upper 10s or lower 20s, as WAA ramps up ahead of Tuesday`s
Winter Storm. Forecast soundings support patchy freezing drizzle
overnight as the low-mid levels dry out & lose cloud ice while the
near-sfc layer remains saturated. This is typical of a drizzle
sounding - but sub freezing temperatures will support a light glaze
of ice possible for those impacted.

What we know about Tuesday`s Winter Storm: A band of heavy snow is
likely along & to the north of Interstate 94 (I-94) Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. There is increasing confidence that
accumulating snow will reach into the Twin Cities metro, but a sharp
gradient is forecast between several inches of snow and little if
any. There is also high confidence we`ll see a several hour period
of freezing drizzle/drizzle south of I-94 for location impacted by
the dry slow Tuesday evening. We`ve opted to upgrade our Winter
Storm Watch to a plethora of Winter Weather Advisories along & just
south of I-94. Our Winter Storm Warnings will be along & just north
of I-94 for locations where they will remain all snow.

What we don`t know for Tuesday`s Winter Storm: the finer details
that ultimately impact the gradient between little snow & several
inches. Current forecast splits the Twin Cities metro in half with
locations in the north & east metro expecting 3-5" of snow while
locations in the southwest metro may only see 1-3". The finer
details are always important but much more so when they impact the
core population in the Twin Cities. We do not know how much rain
will fall across southern Minnesota. This is important because
strong northwest winds will pick up Tuesday night and could bust up
the crust on the existing snow pack & lead to ground blizzard
conditions. We have coordinated with DMX & FSD to issue a Winter
Storm Watch for potential of ground blizzard conditions along I-90
and back into western Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday.

So what will happen Tuesday? Tuesday will see a potent, quick-moving
Alberta Clipper exit the Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains.
The SFC low will track along interstate 94 (I-94) from the Dakotas
through central MN into WI by Wednesday morning. Strong WAA will
increase ahead of this system and allow temperatures to warm into
the 30s across portions of western and southern Minnesota Tuesday
afternoon. The biggest change over the last day is the trend back to
the south/colder for most members of guidance. Certain CAMs remain
north/warm but those also deepens the SFC low to 980mb, which feels
too deep for a clipper-type system in this scenario. Most global
solutions now match up with the ECMWF AIFS solution that has been
steadfast the past few days. This scenario places more snowfall into
the Twin Cities metro than previous forecasts as it tracks a 990mb
low along I-94 with the heaviest snow falling just north of the
track. This matches up with the conceptual model given the vast snow
pack across the region that should support colder surface
temperatures despite strong low level warm advection. There is still
some uncertainty given how far north & intense certain CAMs are like
the HRRR. Everyone in the Twin Cities should expect to see an
inch or two of new snow Tuesday but they should not be surprised
to see several inches of new snow, especially north and east
metro.

Strong winds Tuesday night may lead to potential ground
blizzard conditions over W/S MN. There is uncertainty given warm
temperatures & potential for FZDZ/DZ Tuesday afternoon - likely
crusting over the snowpack. However, strong wind gusts over
45 MPH will likely be enough to break through the crust & loft
the remaining snow pack. This is highly uncertain and ground
blizzard conditions may not occur if more rain/thicker crust can
build up. Overall, a busy day is in store with heavy snow,
wintry mix, freezing drizzle, and strong winds on tap.

Once our Tuesday system clears out, we`ll be left with some
gusty winds and lingering snow showers through Wednesday
morning. As the low continues to pull away to the eastern Great
Lakes, winds will diminish and strong northwest flow returns
aloft. A weak trough looks to swing through sometime Thursday
into Friday, leading to another chance of light snow. Have stuck
with broad brush 30-50 PoPs and QPF on the order of a few
hundredths. This event would likely be similar to ones we had
over the past weekend and today with a half inch to maybe an
inch of snow total when all is over. The bigger concern in the
long term is the Arctic high that will settle in over the Upper
Midwest. High temperatures will be in the single digits through
Sunday with Saturday currently looking the coldest. Friday could
end up being gusty as a surface low over Lake Superior and our
incoming Canadian high approaches from the west. These winds
will lead to some very cold wind chills during the day (10 to 20
below). We will be flirting with Extreme Cold headlines as
apparent temperatures range from 25 to 35 below zero Friday and
Saturday night. Another disturbance may skirt to our south over
the weekend, but uncertainty is high at this point in time.
Temperatures begin to moderate by Monday and we should see highs
in 20s (above zero!) through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Ceilings are generally IFR/MVFR across the region, with pockets
of flurries early this afternoon. Cigs are expected to only
lower throughout the day as a Clipper tracks through northern
Minnesota. There is potential for light snow at sites north of
I-94, dropping visibilities to around 2-3SM for a few hours.
There could be a period of patchy freezing drizzle behind this
snow overnight, around 02-08z, though confidence and extent is
too low to include at this time. Low clouds will become more
scattered Tuesday morning, resulting in some pockets of VFR
conditions for a few hours. A stronger Clipper is forecast to
move in by Tuesday afternoon, bringing potential for heavy snow
(rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour) to the north and mixed
precipitation and gusty winds to the south. This is not quite in
the current TAF period as it starts around 18z in western MN and
21z in eastern MN and western WI.

Winds could gust to around 20kts this afternoon, otherwise
generally stay at or below 10 kts through the period. There will
be a few directional shifts as the Clippers move through,
switching from the south this afternoon to the northwest tonight
and then back out of the south again by tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Main changes to the latest TAF was a slight increase in
confidence for a period of light snow this evening (around
23z-03z), and the introduction of snow as the Tuesday Clipper
moves in during the afternoon. There is high confidence that MSP
will see precipitation with this system, though the exact start
time and precipitation type may need to be adjusted as we get
closer to the event.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...MVFR/IFR with -SN, chc -FZDZ. Wind S 10-15G30 kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
THU...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for Douglas-Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Pope-
     Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday
     for Anoka-Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Sherburne-Todd.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-
     Sibley-Waseca-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST
     Wednesday for Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Ramsey-Rice-
     Scott-Steele-Washington.
WI...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday
     for Polk.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-
     Pierce-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hewett/Dye
AVIATION...BED