249
FXUS63 KMPX 011202
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few flurries/snow showers are possible in SE MN into W WI
  later today, followed by clipper systems Tue Night into Wed
  and on Fri bringing additional light snow showers for the
  entire coverage area.

- A slower and more organized frontal system may be possible
  late week into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows expansive cold
Canadian-origin high pressure between the Rockies and
Appalachians, while a conglomerate of weak low pressure centers
sits over the Rockies to the West Coast. Aloft, a weak H5 bubble
ridge axis moving into the Great Lakes has a sharp longwave
trough axis on its heels, extending from northern Manitoba
province down to the Four Corners region, while an amplified
longwave ridge sits just offshore of western NOAM.

The clearing skies underneath the large high along with the
fresh snowpack has allowed temperatures this morning to
plummet to the single digits above (and even a few below) zero
over mainly the MN portion of the WFO MPX coverage area while
the WI portion, where lingering clouds are more prevalent, hold
in the teens. Clouds will be on the increase today as the
aforementioned deep trough slides eastward across the region. A
swath of moisture being dragged northeast ahead of the trough
looks to have its greatest concentration within the DGZ per
model soundings across the region. While upper level support is
not all that impressive and surface support is nearly nil, there
may be sufficient dynamics at play to squeeze out some flurries
and/or snow showers for mainly the southern portion of our
coverage area this afternoon. Where snow does occur, a trace
accumulation is reasonable with a half inch of snow at the high
end of the spectrum. Thus, few to no impacts are expected given
what has already occurred recently. With temperatures starting
out quite cold followed by the increase in cloud cover and
widespread snow cover, temperatures will not recover much today
so will only look for highs in the upper teens to around 20.

Clouds will generally stick around tonight through Tuesday,
possibly a few breaks in the overcast Tuesday morning, but
again the cold temperatures will remain in place with lows again
into the single digits to lower teens early Tuesday morning
followed by slightly warmer highs into the 20s area-wide. A weak
clipper system developing over northwest Canada will drive
southeast during the day Tuesday, moving across ND through
northern MN and into the MI UP Tuesday night through Wednesday.
A few more snow showers are again possible late Tuesday into
early Wednesday with this system, but it will again produce
little in the way of more snowfall for the area, likely in the
Trace to 0.5" range.

Behind this midweek system, another reinforcing shot of arctic
air is expected across the north-central CONUS as broad
northwest flow aloft develops atop a 1035mb high pressure
airmass driving southeast from western Canada. This will push
highs on Wednesday into the lower teens to lower 20s, then the
full force of this airmass will be felt Thursday with morning
lows into the teens below zero and highs again in the lower
teens to lower 20s. "Warmer" air returns going into the end of
the week as upper flow becomes more zonal atop a relative warm
sector south of a west-to-east frontal boundary developing near
the international border. Friday also looks to feature a weak
surface trough drifting through the area which could produce
some flurries or snow showers over the eastern half of the
coverage area; again, little to no impacts are expected.

There is a possible more organized system to keep an eye on for
Saturday, along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Both the
GFS and EC models indicate a shortwave trough axis aloft moving
eastward from the PacNW across the Northern Rockies Friday. This
trough axis looks to become sharper over the Northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest Saturday, with a cyclogenesis occurring
along the front and this developing low moving eastward over the
Dakotas and through MN. While there were a few indications of
this scenario the past couple nights, there looks to be better
agreement in this thinking in this deterministic and ensemble
model cycle. Admittedly, this system is still 5-6 days out so
there`s plenty that could vary between then and now, nor can any
specifics be determined at this point, but have opted to nudge
up NBM PoPs from the 10s-20s into the 30s, into the "Chance"
range. Have also collab`d with WPC to increase QPF a few
hundredths of an inch to indicate at least a small amount of
snow with this system.

Another arctic high pressure airmass looks to then follow this
potential weekend system, again plunging lows to the single
digits  above and below zero with highs in the 10-20 degree
range for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Any site that currently has VFR cigs can anticipate those
to lower to MVFR then IFR as the morning progresses. Wind speeds
overall prevail out of the south-southwest between 5-10kts. A
mid-level wave will help advect warmer air aloft combined with
weak lift to generate a potential of a few snow showers late
this morning into early afternoon. Chances for -SNSH extend as
far north as KMSP however the better setup looks to be more so
for RNH and EAU. Regardless, PROB30 timing was adjusted at each
site based off of latest forecast guidance. Once the potential
for snow showers ends late afternoon, IFR cigs will stick around
for the remainder of the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR with -SN possible early. Wind NW 10-15kts.
THU...VFR and cold. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR with MVFR -SN possible late. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Dunleavy