944
FXUS63 KMPX 180900
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures and dew points has lowered the likelihood
  of accumulating snow this morning. Thus we have canceled the
  Winter Weather Advisory.

- Rain could still transition over to a wintry mix of snow &
  sleet this morning over portions of eastern Minnesota &
  western Wisconsin, but any slushy accumulations are expected
  to remain under 1".


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main question mark for the winter weather potential with
this system was whether temperatures would end up a degree or
two above/below freezing, & sure enough we are seeing
temperatures on the warm end of freezing overnight - with all
stations across southern Minnesota reporting rain or a mix of
rain & ice pellets so far. Warmer than forecast dew points have
been the main culprit, with dew points of 33-35 degrees within
the band of rain preventing bulb cooling from reaching the
freezing mark. Thus we`ve removed any chance of snowfall
accumulation across southern Minnesota, with maybe a light
wintry mix of rain, ice pellets, & a few snowflakes through
early morning.

Slightly farther north towards the US 212/I-94 corridor
(mainly the far-southern Twin Cities metro through Eau Claire),
we still can`t totally rule out some wintry weather this
morning where dew points are currently much cooler & thus could
lower wet bulb temperatures to near freezing as the band of
precipitation spreads northwards. Any chance for multiple
inches of snowfall accumulation looks very unlikely, but a few
hours of slushy snow & sleet with accumulations of half an inch
to an inch still appears possible once the rain changes over to
a wintry mix, generally between 7-10 this morning. Any travel
impacts this morning would likely only be limited to lower
visibility once the changeover to snow/sleet occurs, so we have
opted to drop the Winter Weather Advisory as as surface
temperatures will be warm enough to prevent any freezing on the
roads.

Precipitation could continue to near noon across southeast
Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but rising temperatures will
likely changeover any light snow or sleet back to rain by late
morning. Highs will then warm into the low to mid 40d across
central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin, to the upper 30s across
southern Minnesota. For Wednesday, light rain could skirt across
central Minnesota during the evening but the bulk of any
precipitation will remain over northern Minnesota. Looking
ahead, another extended stretch of warm & dry weather looks
likely with ensemble guidance suggesting temperature anomalies
of 5-10 degrees above normal & low chances for precipitation
well into Thanksgiving week. Highs will generally be in the
upper 40s to low 50s with lows in the 30s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

With the exception of RWF/MKT that are already seeing rain
showers by the start of the TAF period, we have delayed the
onset of -RA and by proxy -RASN at MSP/EAU as the line of
showers has been slow to push northwards. The scenario continues
to remain initial rain eventually transitioning to snow, with
RWF/MKT still the most likely to see accumulating snow with a
lower chance for MSP/EAU. STC/AXN/RNH should remain dry with
mainly mid level VFR CIGS.

For the locations where precip is possible, this may end up
being a TAF period with multiple AMDs as high resolution
guidance has performed poorly thus far both in regards to timing
and intensity of precipitation, with intensity being lower than
expected so far a big deal when it comes to dynamically cooling
the atmosphere and increasing snow chances. Regardless, we do
expect MVFR if not IFR CIGS as the precipitation moves through,
with periods of IFR VIS due to precip as well.

KMSP...We have delayed the onset timing of -RA to 09z with a
weaker -RASN mix within the TEMPO from 11-15z based off how the
system has progressed so far this evening. Dew points are a
large concern, with surface dew points still in the mid teens at
MSP which is a significant amount of low level dry air to
overcome in order for precipitation to start reaching the
ground. Unless the strongest portion of the band moves over the
airport, it is looking less likely to see mixed rain/snow and
impacts from snow, with anything but the strongest portion of
the system going to result in a lot of the precipitation
evaporating/sublimating before reaching the ground due to the
very low dew points. We will have to pay close attention to the
line of showers as they approach Scott/Dakota counties
overnight, with short term AMDs possible based on how the radar
looks within the first 6-8 hours of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR, IFR CIGS possible. Wind S 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR, -SHRA possible. Wind SW to NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Brown-
     Carver-Dakota-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sibley-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for
     Goodhue.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for Eau
     Claire-Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH