352
FXUS63 KMPX 191151
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning in Western Wisconsin, with
  below freezing temperatures this freezing fog could lead to
  slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces.

- Mild with slightly above normal temperatures and no
  significant precipitation chances over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today... Clear skies and calm winds over western Wisconsin this
morning has allowed for a radiational fog to develop. With the
cool temperatures this is a freezing fog which could lead to
slick spots on untreated roads and surfaces this morning. This
fog will burn off after sunrise as temperatures start to warm.
Farther to the west over Minnesota cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer and dense fog is not expected. Saturation is
high enough that some fog could still form in the typical low
lying spots and near bodies of water. Looking ahead to later
today, a shortwave will pass to our north and provide for
another chance for precipitation. Chances for accumulating
precipitation will be best over northern Minnesota where there
is better forcing. Despite the lack of forcing down here, there
does look to be a deep enough layer of saturation that we could
see some drizzle today into tonight. This is shown in high
resolution models with saturation generally from around 800 mb
down to the surface. With temperatures staying above freezing
tonight no impacts are expected.

Thursday through Monday... Continued northwest flow aloft
through this period. There are a few shortwaves riding along
this flow, but little moisture present to provide any good chances
for precipitation at this time. This is also reflected in
global ensemble systems with little to no precipitation present
among membership. These same systems also suggest continued mild
temperatures in the 40s to maybe even a few lower 50s. With
normal highs now around 40 this is 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
This makes sense as there is no snowpack yet over the Canadian
Prairies, where our northwest flow is coming from.

Tuesday towards Thanksgiving... By the middle of next week it
looks like there will be a change in the pattern just in time
for the holiday travel period. A larger wave looks to move
through the central CONUS in the global deterministic guidance.
Still far enough out that many of the details are uncertain,
which is reflected in spread among ensemble systems. While the
precipition impact around the holiday remains uncertain, what
is more certain is the colder air to follow this system and an
end to our mild temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Dense freezing fog with visibilities a slow as 1/4SM will
persist through 8-9 AM across western Wisconsin. Elsewhere IFR
stratus this morning may see gradual improvement to MVFR during
the afternoon, but ceilings are expected to fall back to IFR
tonight. Southeast winds this morning become more southerly by
the afternoon with speeds increasing to around 10 kts. A wind
shift to westerly/northwesterly is expected towards the end of
the period across western & central Minnesota.

KMSP...Ceilings will hover around 1000 ft this morning but
should stay predominately IFR. Gradual improvement is expected
through the late morning & afternoon with ceilings above 1000 ft
likely by mid-afternoon. There could be a few hours overnight
where the stratus scatters out to VFR conditions, but most
likely we will see MVFR stratus stick around through most of
Thursday as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...MVFR ceilings. Wind WNW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...ETA