139
FXUS63 KMPX 072113
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold again tonight, but warmer on Monday & Tuesday.

- Multiple chances for snow the first half of this week, with the
  most significant being Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Cold temperatures return to end the work week with below zero
  temperatures likely at night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Mostly Clear skies & light northwest winds are present across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures remain cold, often in the single
digits, with wind chills a few degrees either side of 0F. Cloud
cover will increase overnight as a surge of warm air advection on
the back side of the sfc high pressure. This will lead to our first
of several precip events this week. Light snow will push east into
western MN by this evening and move southeast into southern MN
through tonight before tapering off Monday morning. We should all be
prepared for these types of events considering the number of them
we`ve encountered over the last two weeks. Snowfall rates will be
light with amounts likely be less than an inch. Snow may reach into
the Twin Cities metro, but accumulations will be general less than
a half inch. Still, partially snow covered roads could lead to
slippery travel conditions Monday morning. Lows Sunday night will
fall in the single digits.

Monday offers a much warmer day than Sunday. High temperatures will
be in the mid 20s with southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. A quick moving
system will move across the International border with the bulk of
precip falling north of our forecast area, but central MN will see
some minor accumulations Monday evening into Monday night. This
system should produce a little more snowfall so an inch or two from
Alexandria to Mille Lacs seems reasonable. Another dusting in the
Twin Cities metro will keep our snow globe active.

On Tuesday, a larger & better organized system will impact the Upper
Midwest. Guidance continues to highlight a classic Alberta clipper
that drops into western MN by Tuesday afternoon, traveling southeast
along I-94 through MN & WI, and into the southern Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. A rapidly deepening surface low will move in
along an impressive shortwave that will bring with it a strong surge
of warm air advect ahead of the surface low. The track of the
surface low will be very important for where and what types of
precipitation fall. It may be difficult to believe, but temperatures
likely warm into the 30s on Tuesday and possibly lower 40s in SW MN.
Precipitation is on tap to begin as snow, possibly heavy, as the
initial band moves in Tuesday afternoon. I-94 will act as the split
for those north/east of the interstate remaining all snow while
those west/south of I-94 will likely see snow turn to a wintry mix
by Tuesday evening. The energy tied to our shortwave remains off the
coast of Canada & has yet to be fully sampled by ROAB network. This
means there will be fine tuning to the surface low`s track over the
next 24 hours so wobbles in guidance shouldn`t lead to drastic
change our messaging. Headlines have been punted for now, but I
would assume watches will be issued overnight or early Monday ahead
of this system. Why will the surface low track be so important?
Guidance highlights an area of strong WAA forecast to occur to the
south and east of the surface low. Our surface temperatures will
warm into the mid to upper 30s in the warm sector. This will likely
result in a period of Wintry mix and possibly plain rain on Tuesday.
If the low nudges further south - those in the Twin Cities metro may
get lucky and remain mostly snow. If it nudges further north, we`ll
likely see more rain & likely melt a good portion of our current
snow pack. For those along & north of I-94, temperatures remain
below freezing such that a rain to snow transition is not expected.
A brief transition to freezing rain is also possible as forecast
soundings show a warm nose overrunning the subfreezing surface
temperatures. Guidance tends to produce about 0.40-0.75" of QPF
within the heaviest swath of precipitation. Snow ratios remain near
climo (12:1 to 13:1), we can expect a swath of 4-6" (locally 6"+) of
snow for those in the "sweet spot" just north of the warm sector.
The heaviest snow would be along and just north of this corridor.
Collaboration with neighboring offices led to a deferral of any
winter headlines for  now, but they will be needed in the near
future for at least our central MN into west-central WI counties.
This is a quintessential clipper system that looks to bring a quick
hit of snow to many along the I-94 corridor from Fargo, ND to
Detroit, MI.

After Wednesday, our forecast will begin to turn drier, but much
colder as a potent cold air mass from northwest Canada slides down
the Rockies into the Northern Plains. The end of the week looks
quite frigid as long-range ensemble forecast highs struggling to
exceed single digits for both Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile,
nighttime lows should plummet well below zero. Some guidance
supports wind chill temperatures in the -20F`s that would likely
require a cold headline at the end of this forecast period.
Something to keep in mind as we thaw out Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Skies are mostly clear this morning, with a VFR mid-level deck
moving into the area. MVFR cigs are to be expected overnight
tonight and will also come with another round of light snow
west of I-35. Any snowfall that is seen tonight will come in at
a half inch total or less. Dendritic growth zones on the order
of 12k feet deep will make it pretty easy for any cloud layer to
make snow tonight. Stayed close to a RAP timing for the snow
potential tonight.

KMSP...Another light snow event overnight tonight, with best chances
at MSP between 2 and 6AM Monday morning. Accumulations will be
generally a half inch or less during the overnight hours. MVFR
cigs likely from snow onset through most of the day Monday.
Winds will become more southerly through the period, increasing
in strength as well.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/VFR cigs. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR late with -RASN. Wind S 10-15 kts, bcmg NW late.
WED...MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...PV