003
FXUS63 KMPX 272057
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
257 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler & dry Thanksgiving night into Friday afternoon.

- A long duration winter storm will begin to Friday night across southwestern
  Minnesota. Snow will spread over southern and eastern
  Minnesota on Saturday. Several inches of snow likely,
  especially along I-90.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm
  Warning across along I-90 in southern Minnesota Friday night
  thru Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued
  from W MN thru E MN late Friday night through Saturday
  evening.

- Temperatures turn colder behind the early weekend system, with highs
  in the teens and lows a few degrees on either side of zero
  Sunday and Monday. Wind chills will drop below zero both
  mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A quiet Thanksgiving day has played out across southern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 20s
with broken stratus overhead. Skies remain scattered to broken
overnight with lows in the teens. Our attention turns to a long
duration snow storm Friday night through Saturday evening. The
overall trends in guidance has been a slightly further south nudge
over the last 24 hours. That has led to a decrease in QPF by a tenth
or so - thus decreasing forecast snow amounts. Neither change is
"significant" given this is a long duration light to moderate snow
event outside of I-90.

An initial band of snowfall develops upstream over the Dakotas on
Friday driven by a broad area of WAA overrunning the cold air,
promoting a region of FGEN across the Dakotas Friday afternoon. This
band of snow will move into SW MN Friday evening and slowly turn
eastward Friday night as a sfc low ejects out of Colorado Saturday
morning. Our low pressure will move into the Plains and the Midwest
by Saturday Afternoon. This will allow for a broad area of precip to
develop ahead of the low pressure. Precipitation moves back into
southern Minnesota Saturday morning and continues through the
evening hours. Snow will taper off Saturday night as cold air
plunges into the Upper Midwest behind the sfc low. This system will
be driven by the an inverted trough that allows for isentropic
upglide to occur during much of the day Saturday. Snowfall will be
heaviest over southern Minnesota, along I-90, where we`ve upgraded
to a Winter Storm Warning beginning Friday evening. 5 to 8" seems
likely over the course of 24  hours between Friday evening to
Saturday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the
north from Lac Qui Parle county through Washington county and
locations south to the WSW. Amounts in the advisory are likely to
exceed 2" but fall short of 6". Probabilities here drop off after 3"
at 10:1. SLRs are likely to be between 15 to 18:1 that should
support a broad area of 3 to 6" with 2 to 4" on the northern
perimeter of the advisory. There is high enough confidence to say
the highest amounts of snow will likely fall along & to the south of
the I-90 corridor with this event - supporting the decision to go
WSW earlier than later. Northeast winds look like a non-issue with
speeds 10 to 15 mph for the most part. This shouldn`t be strong
enough for any blowing snow concerns.

One concern shared across staff is the track of the sfc low through
Chicago and into central Michigan is not one historically favored
for significant winter storms across the MPX CWA. This will
certainly limit snow rates to the lighter end in the absence of any
mesoscale features. This combined with a sprawling Canadian high
pressure to our north may introduce enough dry polar air to cut into
the northern edge of precipitation at times Saturday. Forecast
soundings still support snow - but it`s something to keep in mind as
we near the event. Behind our system comes a potent Canadian high
pressure will support our first real taste of cold air this season.
High temperatures struggle to warm into the mid teens with lows at
or below zero Sunday and Monday night. We`ll gradually warm up into
Wednesday when there is a signal for another weak system. This
doesn`t look like we`ll see any precipitation but instead another
shot of colder air into the Upper Midwest. The next chance for any
light precipitation appears to be Friday as a clipper system tracks
across the region. Happy Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Satellite captures a broken deck of MVFR stratus ~2-2.5k feet
over south central MN/western WI. While it may not be a
continuous stretch of MVFR observations, the overall theme will
be for MVFR cigs to stick around into this evening before
lifting from northwest to southeast. Forecast soundings reveal
that the stratus is aligned with the snow-growth layer across
western WI, so can`t rule out a few snowflakes. No impacts are
expected. Northwest winds remain gusty, say between 20-25kts
through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Westerly
winds will be on the lighter side tomorrow morning prior to a
turn out of the southeast ahead of an incoming weather system
that will bring snow chances heading into the weekend. Should
see mid to high clouds building in towards the end of the TAF
period ahead of the incoming storm system.

KMSP...Upstream obs indicate that MVFR cigs will prevail
through much of the afternoon, though brief breaks in the
stratus are possible. Northwesterly winds decrease this evening
and MVFR cigs look to scatter out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR/-SN. Wind NE 5-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for Brown-Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sibley-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to midnight
     CST Saturday night for Carver-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-
     Kandiyohi-McLeod-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to midnight CST Saturday
     night for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele-
     Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Strus