159
FXUS63 KMPX 252112
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
312 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Late November winter storm underway across the Upper Midwest.
   Several inches of heavy snow, strong northwesterly winds, and
   rapidly falling temperatures will create significant travel
   impacts this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

- Snow will continue to blow and drift Wednesday. Much colder air
  settles into the region for the rest of the week.

- Additional snow chances arrives late Friday into Saturday. A
  few inches of accumulation appear possible south of I-94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT...Rain will transition to snow from west to east
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Winds will
intensify as the transition occurs, creating periods of white-out
conditions and slick travel. Please avoid any non-essential
travel.

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... The well
advertised late November storm system is rapidly circulating over
the eastern Dakotas early this afternoon. The appearance of the
dynamic processes the compact storm is currently undergoing is
stunning on GOES-IR satellite! The system`s closed upper-low is
progged to advance east across central MN this afternoon and
continue eastward towards central WI by mid-morning tomorrow,
eventually taking on a bit of negative tilt aloft. In response,
~1008mb surface low pressure will undergo cyclogenesis over eastern
MN/western WI and deepen into a mature low-990s mb surface cyclone
over the northern Great Lakes by midday tomorrow. Given this
evolution, an intense deformation band of snowfall supported by a
TROWAL and mid-level frontogenesis will yield heavy snowfall rates
and several inches of snowfall accumulation. As a result of a
southerly jog in the storm system over the past 24-36 hours,
locations along and north of I-94 across central MN remain the focus
for the greatest snowfall amounts (6-8" from roughly Alexandria to
St. Cloud to Ladysmith). A more widespread wrap-around shield of
snowfall will expand across southern MN, supporting a forecast of 4-
6" from Lac Qui Parle east towards the Twin Cities. Farther south, a
couple inches of snow accumulation can be expected. There are two
other players in this forecast -- Strong northwesterly winds, which
will sustain between 20-30 mph and gust upwards of 40-45 mph
(possible near 50 mph in isolated instances!) in tandem with
falling snow and rapidly falling temperatures. It`s the
combination of heavy snow and strong winds that prompted the
Winter Storm Warning across the majority of central/southern MN
and portions of western WI north of I-94 through 9 AM Wednesday.
Additionally, a Winter Weather Advisory continues across far
southern MN (along I-90), Goodhue (MN), and Pierce, Pepin, Dunn,
Chippewa, and Eau Claire (WI). Travel conditions will be
significantly impacted as rain transitions to snow and continues
to fall/blow through the night. Slick travel conditions will
likely continue into the Wednesday morning commute.

APPROXIMATE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION TIMES:

**SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN INITIAL AFD ISSUANCE AT 1 PM**

WEST CENTRAL MN (ALEXANDRIA) - Heavy snow is already reported
    early this afternoon.

    CENTRAL MN (ST. CLOUD/WILLMAR/MORA) - 4-6 PM

    TWIN CITIES - WEST METRO (7-9 PM), EAST METRO (8-10 PM)

    SOUTHERN MN (MANKATO/FAIRMONT/ALBERT LEA) - (9-11 PM)

    WEST CENTRAL WI (LADYSMITH/EAU CLAIRE) - (MIDNIGHT - 2AM)

TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF THE SNOW FORECAST...The heaviest snowfall rates
will occur in the first 2-3 hours after the transition from rain to
snow. Forecast soundings across central MN reveal a saturated DGZ
that is roughly 3-5k feet deep. Strong omega forcing, conditional
slantwise instability, and mid-level frontogenesis will support
snowfall rates of 1"/hr, with a narrow corridor of 1"+/hr rates
possible. Given the swift moving nature of this system, the
residence time for the heaviest rates is of a shorter duration,
however a longer period of 0.5"/hr snowfall rates will persist into
the night. Snow character/SLR`s will run on the wetter side during
the initial transition (say, roughly 7-10:1), however the strong CAA
and dynamic nature of this system will allow for a SLR`s in the ~13-
15:1 range to be more of a commonplace through much of the event.
Cameras across the eastern Dakotas reveal a large flake size, which
certainly is understandable given the depth of DGZ -- However, the
expected magnitude of the wind fields below the DGZ may be somewhat
of a negative aspect to snowflake size tonight due to fracturing
(This is why we`re not running with higher SLR`s despite the
magnitude of CAA).

We have high confidence in the evolution of this winter storm over
the next 18 or so hours. One potential "failure mode" for snow
amounts is associated with the system`s dry slot currently observed
on water vapor imagery wrapping in from NE/IA. We do not think this
feature is going to have much of an impact on the snowfall scenario
across central MN/western WI. However, it is possible that the dry
slot may cut snowfall totals across southern MN by about an inch or
so. *While this is an area of uncertainty, it will not have much
of an impact on the sensible conditions, as the strong winds will
only need a few inches of falling snow to create a very challenging
travel situation.*

Snow ends from west to east heading towards daybreak Wednesday.
Crashing temperatures and breezy winds on the backside of the system
will keep the potential for blowing snow around through at least mid-
morning (this is why the headlines are in place through 9 AM).
Morning wind chills will dip into the single digits and will only
reach the mid-teens tomorrow afternoon. The storm system will have
ushered in a much colder airmass that aims to stick around for the
foreseeable future -- look for highs in the 20s and lows in the teens
through the upcoming weekend.

REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND...High pressure will build over the
north central CONUS heading into Thanksgiving Day. Anticipate a
rather tranquil day of weather, with mostly sunny skies and
highs in the 20s. However, the brief break in the active pattern
will be short- lived, as an active upper-level pattern will
send another storm system through the central CONUS heading into
the upcoming weekend. Driving this storm system is a shortwave
trough that aims to dig from the Pacific Northwest towards the
central Plains. The wave will track along a remnant baroclinic
zone that is forecast to setup across the central Plains
following today`s storm system/southward expansion of the cold
Canadian air mass. While we`re still a couple of days out (and
the forecast is likely to fluctuate in some capacity), that 12z
guidance paints a picture that is rather snowy across southern
MN to open this weekend. Latest consensus depicts a mid-level
frontogenic band of snow developing over the Dakotas/SW MN later
Friday, followed by a more expansion shield of precipitation
heading into early Saturday. Following surface cyclogenesis over
the Plains early Saturday, the cyclone is progged to advance
northeast through the Great Lakes. Depending on the track, the
system`s region of deformation snowfall may also pass over
portions of the CWA. The setup supports the potential for
several inches of accumulating snow over southern MN, with
perhaps a longer duration light snow event towards I-94.
Guidance reveals no shortage of moisture, as a prolonged fetch
of southerly flow aims to advect PWATs nearly ~150 percent of
normal by late Friday across southern MN. Latest NBM PoP`s are
very impressive at this distance, with 80-90 PoPs across south
central MN Friday evening and 50-70 PoPs along the I-94
corridor. Still some pieces to put together with more specific
timing, duration, and amount of snow...but the slower moving
"slider" nature of this winter storm archetype may make for a
longer duration light to moderate snow event that could result
in travel challenges following the holiday.

A reinforcing shot of Polar air, characterized by 850 mb temp
anomalies of roughly -15C, will send surface highs into the teens
and lows into the single digits to close the weekend and open the
upcoming work week. Of course, the localized effects of a fresh
snowpack may send temperatures below blended guidance. It looks like
a very cold start to December!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The winter storm is still on track and already looking
impressive on IR satellite imagery and road cameras across the
Dakotas. LIFR/IFR conditions continue across much of Minnesota
into western Wisconsin with ceilings hovering around 300-600ft.
Visibilities have improved, though there are still pockets of
1/2sm fog/mist along the Minnesota river valley and into
eastern Minnesota. Light rain is starting to fill in across
central Minnesota, with snow moving into parts of western
Minnesota (including at AXN already). As the system shifts east,
rain will quickly transition to heavy snow. Expect visibilities
to drop rapidly as winds begin to gust up to near 40kts out of
the northwest.

The snow will end overnight for western and central Minnesota,
and then taper off during the morning for eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Winds will still be gusting to near 35 kts
tomorrow, so periods of blowing snow will be possible though
visibilities are not expected to drop below MVFR.

KMSP...This will be a rough TAF period with impacts from heavy
falling snow, strong northwest winds leading to periods of
blowing snow, and low ceilings lasting through tonight. Rain will
transition to snow around 02z, and will become heavy at times
with hourly rates approaching 0.5 to 1 inch/hr. Have
introduced a 3 hour window of 1/2sm vis as confidence in heavy
snowfall rates has increased in combination with the strong
northwest winds blowing snow around. Snow will taper off by
early tomorrow morning, with lingering impacts from blowing snow
possible through the rest of the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN late. Wind NW to NE 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN early. Wind NE to NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Douglas-Lac
     Qui Parle-Pope-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Benton-
     Chippewa-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-
     Redwood-Renville-Stearns-Yellow Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-Hennepin-Isanti-Le Sueur-
     McLeod-Nicollet-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Watonwan-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Dakota-Ramsey-Rice-Steele-Waseca-Washington.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Goodhue.
     Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Faribault-Freeborn-Martin.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for Polk.
     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Barron-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST
     Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...BED