925
FXUS63 KMPX 241114
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
514 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential is increasing for first winter storm of the season
  Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Corridor of heaviest snow continues to shift south with
  several inches possible across portions of central Minnesota,
  where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued.

- Strong northwest winds gusting 40 to 45 mph will result in
  blowing snow and difficult travel conditions.

- Much colder with additional snow chances later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Skies remain clear at the moment across much of the Upper
Midwest with mild temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s. An
upper level low over western Kansas will continue east to
Missouri by this evening. Moisture advecting north ahead of it
has reached southern Iowa early this morning with low clouds and
areas of fog developing. Southerly flow will bring this
moisture to MN later this morning. A few rain showers are
possible this afternoon and tonight across southern/eastern MN
and WI, but amounts will be rather light.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over Washington state will
progress east to the northern Rockies this evening and the
Dakotas late tonight. It will dig appreciably on Tuesday as it
reaches southern MN. Rain will become more widespread Tuesday
morning, then as the upper low reaches maturity Tuesday
afternoon, a well-defined deformation band will be in place on
the northern and western quadrants of the low. Colder air will
advect in quickly after the low passes and rain will turn to
snow, which may be heavy at times. The TROWAL will wrap around
the low to the south, spreading a period of light snow as far
south as southern MN Tuesday evening. Snow totals are increasing
as the latitudinal placement of the deformation band continues
to shift south. Several inches are possible. It shouldn`t take
long to begin sticking with decent rates and temperatures
dropping into the 20s, but strong winds may stunt snow ratios
some and lead to compaction. Positive snow depth change maps vs
Kuchera or 10:1 ratio maps highlight this potential well.

Steep low level lapse rates with strong CAA and a northerly low
level jet of nearly 50 kts on the backside of the low will
increase surface winds markedly. In fact, forecast soundings
show 40-45 kts toward the top of the boundary layer. Peak surface
gusts of 35-40 kts are probable. Combined with the falling
moderate to occasionally heavy snow rates, travel conditions
will become difficult. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for parts
of central MN, mostly north of a line from Morris to Mora. This
is where the highest snow totals are expected and where travel
will be most difficult.

Overall, the trend of the swath of heaviest snow continues to
shift south with the numerical models due to a more aggressively
digging trough and deeper upper low. Ensemble means are also
beginning to show better definition with smaller scale features,
signaling the spread is decreasing. AI output has shown only
slight signs of further strengthening of the trough, otherwise
there has been little change in the last several runs. The AI
output has been farther south compared to the numerical output
for a while, so it appears the latter is beginning to catch up.
With all of that said, NBM is lagging behind the trend a bit so
expecting snow totals to again increase today, barring any
significant reversal of recent trends.

The winds will ease Wednesday as high pressure build in. Quiet
weather is expected into Friday, but another system over the
northern Rockies will track to the central Plains Friday night.
A band of light snow may stretch from the Dakotas to central and
southern MN by early Saturday. Beyond Saturday, there remains
considerable spread with any subsequent system and confidence is
very low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

This period will include gradually falling CIGS amidst chances
for -SHRA and BR, with CIGS/VIS falling to MVFR/IFR at times.
The overnight stratus approaching from the south has been
significantly slower than expected, leading to a general
increase in early cloud levels and VFR for all sites. This has
also delayed the onset of MVFR/IFR a bit today, with winds light
and variable throughout. It will end up being a day where
amendments may be needed due to the poorly handled progression
of the morning cloud cover in the short-range guidance, with a
reliance on some of the shorter term observations to adjust the
timing of the CIGS/VIS and -SHRA.

KMSP...In general, went with a slower pace for the onset of
MVFR/IFR compared to prior TAF due to the slow progression of
the cloud cover in Iowa right now. Once we begin to see CIGS and
eventual MVFR/IFR, we are not going to improve until we begin to
clear out by late Wed to early Thu. The CAM guidance has not
handled the morning cloud cover well at all, thus we may need
some additional amendments throughout the day as we rely more on
observations from where the cloud cover is progressing from than
the model guidance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR/-SHSN early. Wind NW 15-20G30kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW to SE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for Douglas-Pope-Stevens-Todd.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
     morning for Benton-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff/TDH
AVIATION...TDH