099
FXUS63 KMPX 021154
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
554 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder than normal temperatures to continue through and beyond
  the first week of December, with the first widespread sub-
  zero morning of the season coming Thursday.

- A few chances for light snow/flurries this week, particularly
  tonight with one weak wave and then Friday through Saturday
  with a pair of weak clipper systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows relatively north-
south oriented high pressure over the central CONUS, including
an inverted trough extending northward into MN, along with a low
pressure center over southern Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a
longwave trough is just east of MN/WI, extending SSW from Hudson
Bay to the Mississippi River Delta while prolonged northwest
flow stretches all the way to the Gulf of Alaska. This trough is
evident on IR/GeoColor satellite imagery with much of western
MN in clear skies while far eastern MN through much of WI still
has low stratus in place. This is creating quite the temperature
difference in that western MN already has temperatures in the
single digits while those sites under the stratus hold in the
teens.

Even with partial clearing later today, cold temperatures will
remain in place due to the long pathway for arctic air to drop
into the region. Highs will remain in the 20s area-wide. The
first of several weak clipper-type waves will drop southeast
through the region tonight. The aforementioned low over western
Canada will slide into northern MN this afternoon then drive ESE
into northern WI this evening. Its associated fronts and modest
swath of moisture may be just enough to produce scattered snow
showers this evening into the early morning hours Wednesday.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected with this system.

Behind it, an appreciable surge of frigid air is expected to
plunge into the Upper Midwest. Even with clearing skies for
Wednesday- Thursday with high pressure moving in, H85 temps late
Wed into early Thu drop to as low as -15C to -20C. This will
then translate to highs on Wed in the single digits to the teens
followed by possibly record-low minimum temperatures early
Thursday morning down into the negative middle teens.

Some temperatures recovery will take place Thursday through
Friday as another clipper system approaches from the northwest
Friday, placing the Upper Midwest in a relative "warm" sector.
That said, chances increase a bit for additional scattered snow
showers Friday as that low drifts across Northern MN, only to be
followed by another low from the Dakotas into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. This second low has taken
a weaker look among the models from this time yesterday, but
still warrants "Chance" PoP mention for light snow over mainly
the southern half of the WFO MPX coverage area. Same as the
system for today, little if any accumulation is expected from
these weak systems Friday-Saturday.

Highs to drop back into the teens Saturday-Sunday with the
passage of these weak waves, then slowly recover back to the
20s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR stratus has been reluctant to move hardly at all over
the last several hours and is only expected to fill back in to
BKN/OVC as we proceed through the day. Suspended ice crystals are
creating patchy areas of FZFG this morning which is expected to
filter out later this morning ~16-17z. An progressive cold front
moves across all sites from NW to SE beginning this evening around
00z near AXN, MSP by ~02z, and EAU by ~05z. Light IFR snow showers
can be expected to accompany the FROPA. Ceilings expected to improve
slightly back into MVFR near the end of the period. Light southerly
winds will veer to the NW as the front approaches. Sustained winds
will increase between 12-15kts with gusts approaching 18-20kts
overnight.

KMSP...MVFR/IFR Fog is expected to pester the field up until about
15z. FROPA timing with IFR -SHSN is expected to reach MSP as early
as 02z. Snow threat should diminish after 08z. MVFR cigs will linger
for the remainder of the TAF period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR late. Chc -SN late. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Dunleavy