Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 301641
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1141 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS LONG SINCE CLEARED THE MPX CWA THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT THERE IS A 1032 HIGH OVER SW MANITOBA. THE IMPACT
OF THIS CANADIAN HIGH HAS BEEN MOST EVIDENT IN THE 24 HOUR
TEMPERATURE CHANGE PLOT...WITH THE ENTIRE MPX CWA 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WE WILL SPEND THE
MORNING SLOWLY PUSHING MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN 5 TO 15 MPH NORTH WIND. CHANGED
FORECAST HIGHS LITTLE...THOUGH MIXING TO H85 ON THE GFS/NAM WOULD
SAY WE COULD SEE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAVE.
STILL...IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL LATE MAY DAY...SO LONG AS YOU DON/T
MIND HIGHS BEING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER TO LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT...SAVE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVING LATE IN WRN MN OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS. STILL EXPECTING LOWS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 32-42
DEGREE RANGE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO ISSUE
A FROST ADVISORY...JUST DID NOT DO IT TONIGHT AS DULUTH WAS HOLDING
OFF ON ISSUING ANYTHING IN NW WI UNTIL THEIR CURRENT HEADLINES IN
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPIRE...SO WILL GET THOSE SORTS OF HEADLINES OUT
WHEN THE REST OF NW WI WILL GET THEM AS WELL. AS OF NOW...MOST
LIKELY COUNTIES FOR NEEDING AN ADVISORY WOULD BE BARRON...RUSK...AND
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES IN WRN WI. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST TO
THE WEST OF THERE INTO CENTRAL MN...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UP WEST
OF THESE THREE COUNTIES /FARTHER FROM THE HIGH CENTER/...WHICH WILL
MAKE IT A BIT MORE DIFFICULT TO GET FROST FORMATION GOING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM ANY FROST POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR EARLY IN THE LONG TERM IS
WHETHER WE CAN SHAKE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN MN. A DISORGANIZED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE PLAINS AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. VERY DRY AIR AROUND
800 MB AND A FAIRLY THIN STRATUS DECK ABOVE 700 MB WILL GREATLY
LIMIT CHANCES FOR RAIN. STILL...THERE MAY BE A DROP OR TWO IN
SPOTS SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
MAY DROP THEM COMPLETELY.

THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS PRETTY ACTIVE AS A BOUNDARY STALLS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND LONGEVITY WILL DEPEND ON
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ. SUBTLE SHORT WAVES AND POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC
CONTAMINATION FROM EARLIER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAKE PICKING OUT
PERIODS WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR PRECIP VERY DIFFICULT...IF NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. THUS...MAINTAINED MEDIUM POPS IN THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN
SPOTS NEXT WEEK IF WE CAN GET MULTIPLE PERIODS OF CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MVFR CLOUD DECK ALONG THE ST CROIX RIVER AND EAST...SHOULD
GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH AND ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA. THEN CLEARING/VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES TO 21KTS OR INTO THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THROUGH 01Z SUN AND BECOMING LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...
SOME STATOCU INTO THE HE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING THROUGH 01Z SUN.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 21KTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SE 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. CHANCE -TSRA LATE. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE


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