716
FXUS63 KMPX 120827
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry remainder of the week, with weekend chances for
  precipitation dwindling.

- Mild temperatures for the remainder of the week. Highs in the
  upper 50s through Thursday and upper 50s to 60s Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Aside from the aurora borealis show many were greeted with last
evening, all remains quiet in the southern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin region. Winds will be the only concern today, and a
minor one at that. Gusts will increase to 20-25 MPH during the
afternoon before slowing down in the evening as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes. Area temperatures will be mild in the
50s (upper 40s central MN and NW WI). The airmass will remain
stagnant through tomorrow until surface high pressure slides
east into the Great Lakes. This will turn flow southerly
across the Northern Plains, causing WAA and a strong thermal
ridge to eventually move over the Upper Midwest by the end of
the week. All of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin can
expect to see 50s on Thursday, but the warmth really builds in
by Friday. On Friday, areas south of I-94 have a good chance
of seeing 60s, potentially mid to upper 60s in SW MN. The
warmth is expected to shift east and linger through Saturday,
although to a lesser degree. Albert Lea and other cities along
I-90 have the highest likelihood of seeing 60 degrees both
Friday and Saturday. It is quite possible this could be the
warmest period we`ll see until next Spring.

A cold front and associated trough is forecast to move through
the Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and will cool things down
back to normal. Precipitation chances have really dropped off
over the last 24 hours of model runs. Both the GFS and European
Ensembles have trended mostly to completely dry. However, some
deterministic models and individual ensemble members show light
QPF over eastern MN/western WI with the cold front, so a trace
to few hundredths cannot completely be ruled out. But, forecast
soundings look pretty dry giving low confidence in actual
precipitation. NBM PoPs have reduced to non-mentionable for the
entirety of the weekend, with the next chance now arriving
Monday into Tuesday. This being said, forecast confidence in the
precipitation realm really begins to decline next week as
models try to develop a messy upper-level pattern. A wide
variety of solutions evolve within the models as each has their
own take on weak systems moving through the central CONUS.
Taking all of this into account, it seems that any potential
for a significant storm system is not on the horizon until after
at least mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR stratus is currently departing to the east of EAU, with
clear skies observed to the west over the other six terminals.
Should be a quiet night ahead with continued westerly flow.
Satellite shows high clouds moving east out of SD and guidance
displays these high clouds continuing to drift east over
southern MN through tomorrow. Westerly gusts are forecast to
approach 25 knots Wednesday afternoon, prior to significantly
diminishing during the evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW bcmg NW 10-15G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Strus