314
FXUS63 KMPX 030903
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures to persist through the weekend, with
  the first widespread sub-zero morning of the season coming
  Thursday morning, followed by near normal temperatures early
  next week.

- A few chances for light snow through this weekend,
  particularly Thursday night with a warm front and then
  Saturday with a cold front, then potentially a larger system
  mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Surface analysis early this morning depicts a surface low over
western Lake Superior with a cold front sagging SW over eastern-
southern MN into SD, with arctic high pressure centered over
central Saskatchewan province. Aloft, a deep low rotates over
Hudson Bay with a longwave trough axis extended to its
southwest.

This trough axis is helping nudge the cold front off to the
southeast, bringing to an end the overnight light snow which
produced generally around a half inch of snow to much of the WFO
MPX coverage area. As high pressure makes inroads from the
northwest, temperatures will only drop from here on out (a.k.a.
highs for the December 3 calendar day have already been reached
at midnight). Despite an expected decrease in cloud cover
through the day, temperatures will drop to the single digits and
teens by daybreak then plunge to the single digits above and
below zero by sunset later today. The center of the 1035+ mb
high will shift to the SD/MN border tonight, helping promote
radiational cooling conditions which will work in tandem with
the fresh snowpack to force lows early Thursday morning to
around -10F. Winds will not go completely calm, generally in the
2-5mph range, making for wind chills in the -15F to
-20F range. So, although this is not headline criteria, the impacts
of very cold conditions still apply so be sure precautions are taken
if outdoors.

The center of the high will then shift east, just south of
MN/WI, into the Ohio River Valley, allowing for a warmer
return flow on its backside. However, coinciding with this
relative rebound in temperatures will be the arrival of a
clipper low from western Canada and its associated frontal
boundaries. While the low itself will remain north of the
international border Friday-Saturday, its fronts will be dragged
across the Upper Midwest. Modest isentropic lift in advance of
the warm front will spark off snow showers at a minimum, or more
sustained light snow, for areas mainly near and north of I-94
Thursday night. The passage of the warm front will also result
in an upwards bump in temperatures for Friday, going from the
teens on Thursday to the mid-upper 20s on Friday. This warm-up
will be short-lived as the associated cold front will drop
through the region Friday night into Saturday, thus putting
highs back into the teens for the weekend. Saturday is also when
the next chance of light snow comes across the region, with
this swath of snow highlighting mainly along and south of I-94.
Both the Thursday night and Saturday snow events look to have
minor snow accumulations, generally around an inch or less.

More tranquil conditions look to develop behind the front for
the Sunday-Tuesday period as high pressure appears to be the
prevailing weather feature. There also looks to be a more
prolonged rebound in temperatures per model blends, with
temperatures returning to near normal levels for the first part
of next week. There are some indications of a larger, more
organized system on the horizon for the middle of next week,
particularly as model blends put "Chance" PoPs already into the
forecast a week in advance. Many shifts can, and usually do,
occur between now and then but given the heightened blend
agreement this far out, this bears watching to see how it
evolves in the models over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Light snow is ongoing across our TAF sites. Snow totals of half
inch to an inch are likely by day break. MVFR to IFR vsby and
cigs to start - we`ll improve vsby to MVFR to VFR by daybreak.
Cigs will be slower to improve as stratus sticks around behind
the cold front passage tonight. Winds will shift from the SW/W
to northwest with gusts up to 20kts possible on Wednesday.
Conditions return to VFR across all sites by afternoon hours.

KMSP... IFR to MVFR snow will taper off after 07Z. Total
snowfall of around a half inch to an inch possible. VFR flurries
are possible through daybreak. Low MVFR cigs likely through mid
morning before stratus scatters.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW 5-15kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR -SN. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE to SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH