171
FXUS63 KMPX 152328
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming, with temperatures peaking on Tuesday in the upper
  30s and lower 40s on Tuesday.

- Mixed precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday. Colder
  temperatures to follow on Thursday.

- Light snow possible Thursday afternoon post-frontal passage.
  Minor accumulations up to half an inch are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

A surge of much warmer air has arrive across the central US as we
appear to place Winter "on-hold" for the next two weeks. Jokes
aside, our temperatures have warmed into the 20s with an uptick
in sunshine as we head into the afternoon hours. Overall - a
much more pleasant stretch of weather than the previous several
days of Arctic cold. Tonight`s low temperatures will be some 30+
degrees warmer than Sunday morning`s with most of us starting
in the mid to upper teens. Winds remain light but will increase
on Tuesday as the torch begins. Cloud cover may limit how warm
it will end up on Tuesday, but Td`s look at or above freezing
for a few hours so some snow pack loss is likely. Wednesday &
Thursday will be mild but Td`s are lower and that should allow
our snow pack to hang on until cooler temperatures arrive
Thursday afternoon. The primary weather concern this period
falls between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon with some
frontal precipitation that appears to be a rain to
rain/sleet/snow mix Wednesday. Falling temperatures & snow melt
may lead to a flash freeze scenario on Thursday. Any QPF that
falls here appears to be a few hundredths at best - far from a
big rain, sleet, or snowfall event but enough to be annoying.
The day shift continued to remove any mention of freezing rain
as forecast soundings do not support it. Thursday afternoon has
a signal for another several hundredths of QPF that will fall as
snow in a cold air advection regime. Temperatures bottom out 5
to 15 below zero Thursday night as a brief punch of Arctic cold
hits us before quickly moving eastward on Friday.

Temperatures will trend back to a cooler, but seasonable range
Friday into next week. High temperatures should fall in the 20s with
lows remaining mild(er) in the mid to upper teens. The over night
low temperatures will likely remain very warm when compared to
climatological averages & why we`ll see everyone promote a stretch
of high confidence above normal temperatures, except during the day
it`s still what we conceptualize as Winter. We`re not breaking out
the t-shirts and shorts but it will not be dangerously cold. This
pattern change will be driven by strong -WPO ridging over the Alaska
Aleutian islands & a Scandinavian block set up. There is some hope
by the new year we`ll begin to transition toward a more active
pattern but there is a lot of "low confidence" beyond day 5 given
the blocking previously mentioned. Locally, there is higher
confidence that we will remain quite dry outside of our one
precipitation event in addition to the warmer temperatures.
Shortwave clipper-type systems may pop up as we near closer,
similarly to Thursday`s system, but for now there isn`t a big storm
on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mid/high clouds will
increase Tuesday morning, then decrease in the afternoon. Winds
will shift south and increase Tuesday. Gusts will be subdued due
to a strong inversion, however strong winds aloft could lead to
wind shear.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR to MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
THU...MVFR. Wind S early, bcmg NW 15-20G30kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...Borghoff