641
FXUS63 KMPX 050837
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
237 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow and slick travel conditions likely along
  I-94 Friday. Snow amounts of 1-3" are expected.

- Another storm system will produce accumulating snow and
  travel impacts across southern MN on Saturday.

- Sub-zero morning lows return for the end of the weekend,
  followed by yet another storm system with the potential for
  mixed precipitation early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

None of our CWA has yet to see snow from this morning`s approaching
clipper system. But, a swath of light snow should begin within the
next couple of hours over western MN and gradually spread east into
central MN and then WI throughout this morning. Onset of snow for
the Twin Cities will begin near 7 AM while WI will be closer to 8-9
AM. Latest CAMs have trended slightly farther south such that the
snow swath looks to track along I-94, with most areas within the
swath looking to receive 1-2". Areas very close to I-94 have the
potential to see amounts closer to 3" if some frontogenetical
forcing can produce briefly heavier snowfall rates. This system
should exit to the east of MN by late afternoon and our WI counties
this evening. This morning`s commute shouldn`t be impacted too
significantly but this afternoon`s commute will likely be quite slow
with the freshly fallen snow. Farther south, a dusting to a half
inch is possible. Even some spurts of freezing drizzle may occur
over southwestern MN as forecast soundings show loss of saturation
within the DGZ. Temperatures will continue to climb into this
afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 20s with even some
lower 30s in southwest MN.

Cold air following today`s clipper will cause Friday night`s lows to
drop into the single digits. Highs Saturday will only be in the
teens as the next wave within our clipper train arrives later in the
day. Latest guidance has trended a bit farther south with this
shortwave (the 00Z HREF shows the 700 hPa low near FSD/SUX by
Saturday evening) such that the heaviest snow potential is looking
to be more confined FSD and DMX`s CWAs. Still, longer-range CAMs and
deterministic models do show the northern periphery of the clipper`s
snow band passing over our southern MN counties Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Guidance consensus snowfall amounts range
between 1-3" with a possibility of up to 4", particularly along I-
90. A Winter Weather Advisory has not been issued yet but could see
one being warranted in future updates.

Cold air will once again follow Saturday`s clipper system with
negative single digit lows likely over western MN Saturday night and
then area wide Sunday night. While highs Sunday will reach the mid
single digits to mid teens, just enough north/northwesterly flow
could mean wind chills struggle to exceed 0 as surface high pressure
moves overhead. Highs Monday will rebound into the 20s as WAA occurs
ahead of the next forecast shortwave within the northwesterly flow.
This next wave should arrive during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
and looks quite interesting for our region. This wave will have more
of a Pacific origin such that EPS mean forecast PWAT anomaly reaches
200% of normal as the shortwave passes through the Northern Plains.
This system will need monitoring as it will be essentially a clipper
system working with the remnants of an atmospheric river. Greater
amounts of QPF would be more likely with this system, but surface
low placement will also be important as temperatures could get
pretty warm on the south side of the low leading to possible precip
type uncertainties. After moderating temperatures mid-next week,
long-range guidance favors another shot of cold air late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Forecast trends remain on track, with light snow expected to
spread eastwards across the area overnight across western
Minnesota & through tomorrow morning across eastern Minnesota &
western Wisconsin. Visibility should drop to IFR as the snow
begins, with several hours of light snow accumulating to 1-2"
across central Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin & a dusting to 1"
across southern Minnesota/western WI. The snow will end by early
afternoon across western & southern Minnesota, but linger into
late afternoon/early evening across western Wisconsin.

MVFR ceilings look to scatter out for a few hours overnight
before the snow begins, primarily across Minnesota terminals. Ceilings
are expected to fall to IFR once the snow begins & should
remain there until the snow ends, with gradual improvement to
MVFR likely through the late afternoon & evening. Latest
guidance trends indicate clearing to VFR is possible tomorrow
night as drier air accompanies the northwest winds.

South winds gust to 20-25 kts tonight but speeds drop below 10
kts by midnight. Winds gradually turn to SSW/SW as the snow
begins, & eventually to W/NW as the snow ends tomorrow
afternoon.

KMSP...Dry air near the surface is expected to limit the snow
start time until tomorrow morning, with 8-10 AM appearing most
likely. There is a low chance for light snow to begin as early
as 5-6 AM, but the bulk of the impactful snow is expected
between mid-morning & mid-afternoon. Light snow should wrap up
by mid to late afternoon (3-4 PM), before the evening rush.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/-SN, chc IFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
SUN...MVFR/-SN early, bcmg VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR, chc MVFR w/-SN. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...ETA