865
FXUS63 KMQT 281719
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1219 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers will bring 2 to 6 inches of snowfall for
the northwest wind lake effect snowbelts of the eastern U.P through
this afternoon. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late
Saturday and Sunday will bring 50-60% chances of 6 inches of system
snow along Lake Michigan, and a reinvigoration of Lake Superior lake
effect snowfall.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Early this morning satellite water vapor imagery and model analysis
showed an upper level low pressure over western Quebec with weak
shortwave ridging upstream over the high plains and Canadian Prairies
ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Surface analysis showed the surface low that brought widespread
snowfall to the U.P now over Quebec with a high pressure over the
Central Plains. A tight pressure gradient remained over the with
gusty northwesterly winds and widespread lake effect snow showers
in the northwest wind snowbelts. Temperatures had fallen into the
low 20s over the interior and 20s to near 30 along Lake Superior.

Today, northwesterly winds will continue across the U.P with lake
effect snow showers in the northwest wind snowbelts, especially over
the eastern half of the U.P where moisture/thermal profiles and
convergence are more favorable for light to occasionally moderate
snow showers. Over the western U.P inversion heights will fall and
somewhat drier air will begin to reduce the intensity and coverage
of any snow showers. Overall additional accumulations today will be
in the 2-4" range over the east and less than an inch over the west.
Localized amounts up to 6" are possible in the east where more
dominate bands set up. Highs today will be in the 20s over much of
the central and west to the low 30s over the east.

Tonight the surface low will weaken as it moves into eastern Quebec
and high pressure builds over the Midwest. This should allow for a
land breeze to develop and push much of the lake effect snow showers
back offshore. Light winds and drier air will help temperatures fall
into the single digits over the interior and teens lakeside.

By Saturday, attention turns upstream to a shortwave trough diving
through the Plains. Ensembles have honed in on a surface low
pressure track from Missouri Saturday evening to the Michigan Thumb
Sunday morning and quickly to Quebec by Sunday night. Models have
trended to a track that would bring light precipitation over much of
the U.P with the heavier precipitation over Menominee and southern
Delta Counties. At this time the most likely scenario would
bring 1- 2" of snowfall over the western U.P and 1-3" over the
east. Lake enhancement could bring heavier snowfall to Menominee
and southern Delta counties where ensemble probabilities for
6+" of snowfall are around 60%. Northeast flow over the northern
half of the U.P could bring lake effect/enhancement to the
northeast wind snowbelts, especially in Marquette County. The
axis of strongest snowfall could also threaten multiple
corridors that will be stressed from the end of Thanksgiving
weekend travel. Those with outdoor and travel plans this weekend
should monitor the forecast for updates and possible headlines.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the
Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows
pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on
the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake
Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all
but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests
50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of
SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at
the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for
single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some
lows near 0 Monday and Tuesday morning (though raw, un-"bias
corrected" model guidance would suggest warmer temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

IWD and CMX remain under generally MVFR restrictions with stubborn
lake clouds over the area, but stray snow showers reaching the
terminals at times are not expected to have any significant impact
on visibility. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected at IWD and
CMX after 00Z as winds back to the SW, but ceilings drop once again
to MVFR at CMX for at least a brief period early Saturday morning.
SAW, meanwhile, has risen to low-end VFR and is expected to remain
there the rest of the forecast period. NW winds continue to gust to
near 20-25kts early this afternoon, but decrease into the late
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Winds are expected to fall below gales this morning as the surface
low lifts through Quebec and the pressure gradient relaxes over the
region. Winds over the eastern half of the lake will remain near 30
kt through the day before falling below 20 kt this evening. Waves
will take some time to relax, only falling below 12 ft in the
southeast by this afternoon and below 4 ft early Saturday morning. A
low pressure passing through the southern Great Lakes basin will
ramp up wind gusts to 20-30 kt Sunday with ensemble guidance
suggesting up to 60% chances of a brief localized gale in the
southeastern region of Lake Superior. Wind gusts will then remain
around 20-30 kt next week as high pressure to the south of the Great
Lakes is opposed by occasional clipper low pressure systems.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006-
     007-014-085.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS/NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS/NL