550
FXUS63 KMQT 180846
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
346 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through Wednesday with highs near normal
in the 30s/40s and lows in the teens/20s.

- Next period of widespread precipitation is expected Thursday,
mainly in the form of light rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Radar mosaic this morning is quiet with lake effect snow showers
even dwindling across the eastern counties. Surface analysis/water
vapor imagery early this morning still shows Upper Michigan under
the influence of high pressure stretching southeastward from
Manitoba. Temperatures, however, seem to be the main focus with much
of the interior west and central dipping into the teens. Farther
east, though, lake effect cloud cover has helped to blanket the area
where temperatures are currently holding in the upper 20s/low
30s. Meanwhile, a shortwave centered over the Central Plains is
still expected to stay south of the U.P., resulting in a dry day
with highs near normal in the upper 30s/low 40s. Significant
radiational cooling will contribute to another cold night as the
ridge of high pressure persists through tonight. Widespread
teens will prevail across the interior west and central with low
20s over the east and Keweenaw tonight. Wednesday, look for
another quiet day before the ridge of high pressure exits the
area.

Wednesday night into Thursday, a northern stream trough will dig
from the Canadian Prairies into the upper Great Lakes. Warm
advection and DCVA is likely to force a band of mainly rain showers
from possibly late Wednesday night into Thursday, although there is
still uncertainty with the timing. If showers can work their way in
as early as late Wednesday night, a few patches of freezing rain (or
more likely, freezing drizzle, based on low-level saturation below a
midlevel dry layer on some forecast soundings) cannot be ruled out
before strong warm advection brings everyone above freezing on
Thursday. The chance of this appears to be only 20-30% at the moment
so not worth messaging at this time, but will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, the bulk of the shower activity should be during the day
Thursday along/ahead of the system`s cold front, with the
postfrontal airmass likely just cold enough to support light lake
effect snow showers over the east Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

SKC skies and light/nearly calm winds hold thanks to ridging today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Encroaching high pressure has already ended gales across Lake
Superior, though northwest wind gusts will remain above 25 kt until
the mid morning hours today. Wind gusts fall below 20 kt
overnight tonight into Tuesday. Significant wave heights this
morning will fall to 4-7 ft for the east half (less in the west)
and below 4 ft overnight tonight into Tuesday lakewide. High
pressure will then keep wind gusts sub-20 kt until at least the
late-week period. Then, attention turns to multiple potential
shortwave troughs that could spawn surface low pressure systems.
Confidence is low in the details, but there is a 15-25% chance
that a low pressure feature could be accompanied by gale-force
gusts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDUD/Thompson
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...Thompson