335
FXUS63 KMQT 030846
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
346 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread west wind gusts of 25-35 mph persist over much of
  the area today.

- A Wind Advisory is currently in effect through this evening
  for Keweenaw and Northern Houghton counties where wind gusts
  up to 45 mph are expected.

- Westerly gales continue across Lake Superior the rest of
  today.

- Temperatures rebound slightly above normal into most of the
  work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Early morning GOES satellite imagery and RAP mesoA reveals the left
exit region of a 150-175 kt 300mb jet streak nosing into the
Upper Great Lakes, reflecting a ~983 mb low pressure lifting
into James Bay. Ascent ahead of and along the system`s attendant
cold front has forced a wave of showers now pressing out of the
E UP. A secondary weak shortwave and associated cold air
advection is beginning to ramp up across the west half where
recent radar imagery has shown an uptick in shower activity,
likely aided by lake enhancement as 850 mb temps have cooled
across the western lake to around 0C or just below. Not
expecting much more precip from these showers as drier air works
in from the west. This is noted on satellite imagery where a
sharp drop off in cloud cover is encroaching the western lake.

Through the rest of the day, this dry slot presses east, clearing
out cloud cover through the early morning. Mixing into a strong 35-
45 kt LLJ will continue westerly gales over Lake Superior and Wind
Advisory conditions in the Keweenaw. NBM guidance continues to
highlight high probabilities for 40-45 mph gusts (>75% chance) for
the Keweenaw and portions of Alger/Luce counties as winds remain
primarily out of the west. Opting to continue the advisory through
00z (7pm local). Another thing to watch for today will be, believe
it or not, limited fire weather conditions as westerly gusts 20-30
mph will be common across the interior.. Model soundings across the
west and interior suggest fairly deep mixing into a very dry
boundary layer, which may lower RHs as low as 30-40% this afternoon.
The latest 00z HREF supports this idea, painting a 50-70% chance for
RHs lower than 35% mainly along the UP/WI border. The limiting
factor today will be the recent stretch of cooler and wetter
weather, as well as temperatures only pushing the low 50s. Gusty
winds begin to settle this evening and into Tuesday as the regional
pressure gradient slackens ahead of increased midlevel ridging and
sfc high pressure sliding south of the Great Lakes.

Heading into the midweek, a mostly zonal pattern keeps Tuesday
rather quiet. An amplified ridge off the US coast forces a
downstream trough and weak shortwave into the Great Lakes late into
Wednesday, squeezing out some light QPF followed by light lake
effect precipitation in the east half. At this time, despite cooling
850mb temps as low as -4 to -7C a quickly building ridge behind the
departing system Wed into Thurs looks to usher in drier air that may
limit any lake effect development.

Potentially impactful and at least more interesting weather makes its
return this weekend into the following week as deterministic
guidance and their respective ensembles are hinting at an active
pattern comprised of persistent troughing and cooler mid level
temps, which may mean an increase in more widespread snow or lake
effect snow showers. No point in teasing out any details at this
point with plenty of time for things to change, but interested
parties should keep an eye on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A cold front pushing through tonight will veer winds from the
southwest to the west, though remaining gusty, with gusts at IWD and
SAW up to 30 kt and up to 40 kt at CMX. -SHRA is around 30 percent
likely at CMX early in this period, and similar chances of MVFR
exist, though they may be SCT. Once the front is through, VFR
conditions then prevail under mostly SKC conditions, though winds
will remain gusty out of the W to NW. There will be a brief period
of LLWS at SAW around 12Z as FL040 winds remain strong there,
perhaps up to 50+ kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Westerly gales 35-45 kts persist today, mainly across the eastern 2
thirds of the lake before diminishing tonight into early Tuesday
below 35 kts. This will yield significant wave heights west of the
Keweenaw between 5-10 ft, while heights climb 10-15 kt across much
of the eastern third.

Light winds of 20 knots or less return for a short while Tuesday
afternoon. However, as a shortwave low moves runs through the
Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through
Wednesday, expect the winds to pick up once again from the northwest
behind the low on Wednesday, with some gales up to 35 knots possible
over the east half (40% chance). As more shortwave ridging moves
overhead Wednesday night into Thursday, expect the winds to die-down
to 20 knots or less again. Active weather returns this weekend with
lake effect precipitation and gusty winds. At this time, gale
potential is low, though probabilities could increase as increased
model clarity comes this week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ001-003.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     LSZ162.

  Gale Warning until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ this afternoon for
     LSZ241.

  Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ242>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW