345
FXUS63 KMQT 131953
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
253 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After warmer temperatures on Friday a cold front will bring
falling temperatures Saturday afternoon along with the chance for
showers.

- It will be breezy Saturday night into Sunday along with lake
effect snow showers for the northwest wind snowbelts. Only minor
accumulations are expected with minimal impacts.

- There is a high risk for gales over the central and eastern part
of Lake Superior on Saturday night into Sunday evening.

- Lake effect snow showers continue into Tuesday, mainly in the
eastern U.P. Only minor accumulations are expected with minimal
impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

This afternoon satellite water vapor imagery and model height
analysis showed troughing over eastern Canada extending south into
New England and ridging upstream over the intermountain west. Dry
air and subsidence, evident in the water vapor imagery, helped
maintain sunny skies for much of the U.P today except for the far
east where lake effect cloudiness was still streaming off Lake
Superior along with an area of passing high level cloudiness.
Temperatures had warmed into the mid 40s to low 50s.

Tonight, expect light winds with lows in he 20s and 30s. The coldest
temperatures will be near the WI/MI border, over the northern areas
weak isentropic ascent will result in some mid-level cloudiness and
help keep limit radiational cooling.

Above average temperatures are expected for Friday with warmer
southerly winds ahead of a cold front associated with a low pressure
tracking through northern Ontario. Warmer low levels along with
abundant sunshine should push temperatures well into the 50s except
for areas that still have snowpack, which will help keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler.

On Saturday the cold front will push through the area bringing
falling temperatures in the afternoon and scattered rain showers,
with the best chance in the central and east. Behind the front
northwesterly flow will develop again with 850mb temps falling to
the -10C by Saturday night. Lake induced instability will result in
snow showers over the northwest winds snowbelts Saturday night
through Tuesday (especially in the eastern U.P). At this time it
still appears that the snow showers should be limited in intensity
with low inversion heights and a classic inverted-v sounding due to
dry air in the low levels. Light accumulations can be expected,
mainly during the overnight hours with temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s during the daytime. Rain may also mix in during the
afternoon hours, especially along the Lake Superior shoreline.

Overall expect highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Sunday through
Wednesday with lows in the 20s. The NBM keeps precipitation chances
going in the east on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR prevails at all sites through the forecast period. Gusty west
winds 15-30 kts prevail, with the highest gusts at CMX. Tonight,
winds begin to fall to 10 kts or less before eventually becoming
light and variable at all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Northwest winds to 30 kts this afternoon will fall below 20 kts this
evening with winds shifting southeast overnight. Southeasterly winds
will increase ahead of a cold front on Friday with winds up to 30
kts east of the Keweenaw by Friday evening. The cold front will pass
over the lake on Saturday morning into the early afternoon with
northwesterly winds to 30 kts behind it. There is a high risk for 35-
40kt gales on Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, especially
over the central and eastern part of the lake.

Winds fall below 30 kts by Monday morning and they may stay below 20
kts through Wednesday, NBMv5 probabilities for winds >20 kts are
generally less than 20 percent during this period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...NL