693
FXUS63 KMQT 151121
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
621 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front brings falling temperatures along with increasing
  chances for showers today.

- Breezy today through Sunday, especially along the Keweenaw and near
  Lake Superior. Northwest gales to around 35 knots are
  expected over central/eastern Lake Superior this afternoon
  through Sunday.

- Lake effect snow showers return to the northwest wind
  snowbelts tonight into Sunday morning and continue through
  early next week, mainly in the eastern U.P. Only minor
  accumulations are expected with minimal impacts through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Early morning surface analysis depicts a cold front over Minnesota
poised to enter the western end of Lake Superior, signaling an
impending change to a cooler and more active weather pattern across
Upper Michigan beginning today. The front will be accompanied by a
chance of showers as it sweeps across the U.P. during the first half
of the day, though do not expect any heavy precipitation as model
QPF generally remains limited to a few hundredths of an inch in most
locations. Temperatures will mostly be in the 40s today as colder
air begins to filter into the region, save for a few locations
warming into the low 50s near Lake Michigan prior to arrival of the
front. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the front and
make for breezy conditions across the area this afternoon as Gales
develop across central and eastern portions of Lake Superior. Model
probabilities for gusts as high as 40 mph remain around 30-40% from
the Keweenaw to eastern portions of the Lake Superior shoreline this
afternoon through tonight and into Sunday, with other parts of the
U.P. likely to see gusts in the 20-30 mph range through the weekend.

Temperatures will start to fall off more markedly tonight into
Sunday as 850 mb temps plummet to -5C this evening and then to -10C
by Sunday morning, resulting in lows in the 20s in most locations
tonight and highs only getting into the mid to upper 30s for most
locations on Sunday. Cold air advection will yield increasing lapse
rates over the lake and touch off another round of lake effect snow
showers in the northwest winds snowbelts from tonight through the
early part of next week over the eastern half of the U.P. Still do
not expect any significant accumulations or impacts as relatively
meager low level moisture and shallow inversion heights remain as
limiting factors. Still, could see around an inch or so of
accumulation from tonight through Sunday night in some spots from
Alger County eastward.

Expect benign, low impact weather through at least the middle of
next week, with high temperatures slowly moderating back into the
40s by Wednesday as broad high pressure builds in from the west. The
next chance for meaningful precipitation looks to come late in the
week as medium range guidance depicts a system potentially lifting
towards the Great Lakes from the Four Corners region, but confidence
remains low for now given the degree of model spread.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light rain will move through Upper Michigan terminals this morning,
followed by a cold front and increasing winds. Ahead of the front,
rain and increased moisture may result in MVFR conditions at
KCMX/KIWD. Continued IFR or LIFR should be expected at KSAW until
the rain ends later this morning. After the frontal passage,
categories become VFR and winds shift to northwesterly and increase
afterwards to 20-30kts, with the higher winds expected at KCMX.
These winds are likely to persist through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

 Southerly winds of 20-25 kt over the eastern end of Lake Superior
will continue to diminish through this morning as a low level jet
departs to the east. Winds will shift northwesterly across the
western half of the lake this morning and across the eastern half of
the lake by early this afternoon as a cold front sweeps across the
region. Gale warnings remain in place over the eastern half of the
lake from this afternoon through Sunday evening as strong cold air
advection allows 35 kt gusts to mix down to the surface and wave
heights build to 8 to 13 ft over the eastern half of the lake. Opted
to cancel the Gale Watch for the waters north of the Keweenaw as
probabilities for gales have diminished in recent model runs,
however still could see a few sporadic low end Gale force gusts over
the central part of the lake this afternoon into tonight. Gales come
to an end by Sunday night, with northwest winds gradually
diminishing below 20 kt through Monday as high pressure starts to
build in from the west. This will maintain lighter winds over the
lake through the end of next week, with wave heights generally
staying in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

  Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     LSZ265.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...CB