669
FXUS63 KMQT 110516
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1216 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers will shift from the north to
  northwest wind snow belts this evening and persist through
  Thursday. Additional snowfall totals through Thursday peak at
  around 2" over the north-central U.P. and 2-4" over the
  eastern U.P.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for eastern portions of Lake
  Superior through this evening.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through early next
  week. Low temperatures in the single digits to below zero are
  possible this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Radar and satellite imagery show numerous lake effect snow showers
ongoing across the central and eastern U.P. this afternoon as a
strong low pressure system departs Lower Michigan into southeast
Ontario. Snow will shift from the north to northwest wind snow belts
this evening and then persist through Thursday across the east as
winds continue to back around to the northwest in the wake of the
low. Drier air working into the mid levels of the atmosphere will
continue to hamper accumulations, with generally another 1-2" inches
expected across the north-central U.P. and as much as 2-4" for
favored snow belts from Alger County eastward through Thursday
afternoon. Lake effect will dwindle late Thursday into Friday as
inversion heights come down to around 5 kft and the bulk of the
available moisture becomes confined below the dendritic growth zone.
Temperatures will continue to hover slightly below seasonal norms
with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens through Friday.

Another weak clipper looks to move across Lake Superior late Friday
into early Saturday, but models continue to downplay snowfall
amounts with another 1-2" across most of the U.P. and perhaps
slightly higher amounts in the Keweenaw with this system. Another
shot of arctic air then moves into the area this weekend behind the
system as 850 mb temps plummet to -20 to -25C by early Sunday. This
will correspond to daytime highs in the single digits to low teens
and overnight lows flirting with below zero readings over much of
the area for Saturday and Sunday. Also expect breezy northwest winds
to develop on the backside of the Friday system, contributing to sub
zero wind chill values across much of the U.P. through the weekend.

Models continue to hint at another clipper approaching the region
late Sunday into Monday, but also continue to differ greatly with
respect to strength, progression, and timing of this feature as some
solutions would result in impactful snowfall while others would miss
the U.P. completely to the north. Looking farther out into next
week, there is then some indication that a slight warm up may be in
store mid to late week as daytime highs potentially climb above up
above freezing for the first time since prior to Thanksgiving. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at all sites with scattered lake effect
-SHSN observed at SAW and IWD. IWD will see the lowest ceilings
 tonight with a 20-25 percent chance of IFR ceilings around 09Z.
 IWD is 75 percent likely to return to VFR in the morning while
 SAW is around a 50/50 chance of MVFR/VFR and CMX`s chances of
 VFR is only 1-in-3 at most today. Expect primarily NW winds
 throughout the period at all sites, occasionally gusting to 20+
 kt at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwesterly gales will linger over eastern portions of Lake
Superior through later this evening as strong low pressure to the
south continues to depart into Canada. Small Craft headlines will
persist over the nearshores tonight and then drop off from west to
east through the day on Thursday as winds diminish below 20-25 kt
and waves subside from 8-12 ft tonight to less than 4 ft by Thursday
afternoon. Then expect a brief period of lighter westerly winds
below 20 kt into early Friday before winds increase again ahead of
the next system. This will bring renewed gale chances with a 30-50%
probability of gales over central portions of the lake during the
weekend, with freezing spray concerns also increasing as a frigid
air mass moves over the region.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...CB