982
FXUS63 KMQT 011127
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
727 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered lake effect rain and snow showers continue today.
  Snow showers will be confined to the higher terrain areas of
  the west and central UP.

- Windy on Sunday into Monday with wind gusts of 30-40 mph
  likely (>70% chance) over much of the area, strongest near the
  Keweenaw.

- Temperatures remain near normal today before rebounding
  slightly above normal into the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Early morning GOES Satellite imagery reveals a trough digging south
of the UP across the Upper MS River Valley while an upstream
positively tilted ridge builds behind it from the Canadian Prairies
into the N Plains. At the surface, high pressure floats south across
the Plains while a deep ~975mb low pressure moves from Maine into
Nova Scotia. This places the UP within light northerly flow. As 850
mb temps have cooled between -6 to -9C across Lake Superior, an
uptick in lake effect rain / snow showers has been seen over the
last several hours. Here at the WFO, persistent snow showers may
bring us our first measurable (>= 0.1") snowfall by daybreak.
Suspect these snow showers are mainly confined to the high terrain
of the central and western UP where temps have fallen into the low
to mid 30s and lake effect showers are able to receive a boost from
terrain enhancement and frictional effects. Accumulating snow isn`t
expected to be much more than a dusting on grassy surfaces, though
persistent showers may lead to a few tenths for the luckiest
individuals of the Michigamme Highlands. Adjacent lakeshore
communities remain in the upper 30s to low 40s, hindering snow from
reaching the surface.

Through the rest of today, the aforementioned trough
continues its southward journey while the encroaching ridge noses
into the Upper Great Lakes, continuing chilly northerly flow and
scattered lake effect precipitation. Precip will remain on the
lighter side as model QPF depicts amounts upwards of 0.1-0.15",
highest coinciding terrain enhancement of the west and central UP.
With temps climbing into the low 40s by the afternoon, expecting
snow showers to continue through the morning hours before becoming
all rain or at least a rain/snow mix. This evening and tonight, lake
effect precip will begin to taper as winds back to the S/SW ahead of
a fast moving system set to traverse across Ontario on Sunday.

Early Sunday, a strong 150+ kt 300mb jet streak works its way along
the US/Can border, supporting a fast eastward moving sfc low that
should be nearing the Manitoba/Ontario border by 12z Sunday. The
increased pressure gradient and strong SW winds aloft will begin to
increase SW surface winds between 30-40 mph by Sunday afternoon,
strongest in the Keweenaw and favored SW downsloping areas of the
west/central UP. On Lake Superior, model soundings continue to
suggest mixing into a 40-50 kt low level jet (some nearing 55-60
kts), however, given ongoing WAA capping over the lake, thinking
frequent SW gusts 40-45 kts will be the case beginning Sunday
afternoon through early Monday morning before backing west Monday
morning with the system`s cold frontal passage. Ensemble and NBM
guidance support this notion, painting high probability (>70%) for
gusts >40 mph from Isle Royale to the Keweenaw and central Lake
Superior Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. We may be flirting
with Wind Advisory criteria for Houghton/Keweenaw counties should
trends continue over the next 24 hrs. The sfc low lifts through
Ontario Monday, precipitation along the cold front will move west to
east early in the day. At this time, models suggest light QPF
generally less than 0.20".

Medium range guidance continues to point to a progressive, quasi-
zonal flow pattern developing across the northern CONUS for the rest
of next week, with a series of embedded shortwave troughs bringing
periodic chances for precipitation and breezier conditions mid and
then late next week. Still do not see signals for any particularly
impactful weather with this pattern, but will continue to refine the
forecast in the coming days as the details of these features come
into better focus. Generally expect temperatures to run in the upper
40s to low 50s across the area, slightly above seasonal norms
through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 727 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

CIGs have been bouncing between VFR and MVFR at CMX and IWD with
passing lake effect clouds and a few showers. This will continue
through the morning but drier air should bring CIGs to VFR this
afternoon. At SAW lake effect rain and snow showers were more
concentrated with consistent MVFR CIGs. There were brief periods of
MVFR VIS along with CIGs down to 1 kft with the heavier showers.
Conditions at SAW should improve to VFR late this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Northerly winds 15-25 kts decrease today, falling 15 kts or lower
this evening. Southwest winds begin increasing early Sunday as a
strong system approaches from the Canadian Prairie and moves across
northern Ontario. Gale probabilities have continued to increase to
70-90%. Anticipating the ongoing Gale Watching will be upgrade to
Gale Warnings will today`s afternoon forecast package.

Gales will happen in three phases, as southwest winds transition to
westerly Sunday night and then eventually northwesterly on Monday
behind a surface cold front. Probabilities for high end Gales of 45
kts have increased some between 60-80% for much of the western arm
of the lake, especially near Isle Royale and between the Nat`l Park
and the Keweenaw Peninsula. Probabilities for 45 kts remain ~40-60%
for the over the eastern half of the lake for Sunday and Monday.
Waves will also build to 8-12 ft over the western half of the lake
on Sunday then over the eastern half of the lake on Monday, leading
to hazardous conditions for any mariners through early next week.
Winds settle back below 25 kt on Tuesday, with waves responding
accordingly in the wake of the system. Additional systems mid week
and late week will bring additional chances for headlines in the
long term.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
     LSZ162.

  Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for
     LSZ240-241.

  Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for
     LSZ242>244.

  Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
     LSZ245>251-265>267.

  Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Monday night for
     LSZ263-264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW