836
FXUS63 KMQT 150523
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1223 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures through Saturday morning will give way to
  a cooling trend later this weekend as a cold front brings
  falling temperatures along with increasing chances for
  showers.

- Breezy Saturday into Sunday, especially along the Keweenaw and
  near Lake Superior. Northwest gales to around 35 knots are
  expected over eastern Lake Superior Saturday afternoon through
  Sunday.

- Lake effect snow showers return to the northwest wind
  snowbelts late this weekend and continue through early next
  week, mainly in the eastern U.P. Only minor accumulations are
  expected with minimal impacts through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Satellite imagery shows mostly sunny skies across the U.P. this
afternoon save for some cirrus clouds hanging around in the upper
levels of the troposphere. As ridging continues to bring in warm air
advection the rest of this afternoon into this evening, expect
temperatures to continue climbing across the area, with some spots
in the far west potentially approaching 60F for a high this
afternoon. Everywhere else, highs in the 50s are expected, save for
maybe some remaining snow-covered parts of the north-central and the
far east by Newberry where temperatures may peak just shy of 50F.

As we head into the overnight hours, a LLJ of around 35 to 40 kts at
around the 925mb level moves across Upper Michigan. With anomalously
warm temperatures (thinking around +10C at 850mb) moving
overhead at the same time as well as cloud cover, thinking the
higher winds will not mix down to the sfc ahead of an
approaching cold front. However, downsloping winds towards Lake
Superior could bring some southerly gusts up to 20 mph down to
the lakeshores this evening. Given the warm air advection and
cloud cover overhead, thinking lows tonight will be warm for
this time of year, ranging from around 40 to the mid 40s, with
temperatures either being fairly static or slightly increasing
a couple of hours after sunset.

A shortwave low lifting from the Canadian Prairies towards Hudson
Bay the rest of today into this evening is projected to bring a cold
front across our area Saturday morning. With the arrival of the cold
front, expect some light rain showers and breezy conditions behind
it; expect the winds to progressively pick up throughout the day
from the northwest as 850mb temperatures drop down to as low as -10C
by the evening hours (around a 20C change in temperature in 24
hours); we could see even a few gusts up to 40 mph in the
Keweenaw and along the lakeshores east of Marquette by the
evening hours as a secondary cold front drops down south across
the region (10 to 50% chance according to the REFS, with the
highest chances east of Munising). With the initial cold front
moving through early in the day, expect the highs Saturday to
only get up into the mid 40s in the north central and west to
upper 40s to lower 50s in the south central and east (front
moving through later over these parts). While it`s possible we
may see a short break in precipitation across the area late in
the day Saturday, with the secondary cold front moving through
Saturday evening, expect lake effect showers to pick back up
across the northwest wind snow belts Saturday night; expect the
precip-type to be snow, although some rain may be mixed-in over
the east early. With delta-Ts being in the teens but ridging
already building in shortly after the secondary cold front`s
passage, expect the lake effect snow to be light with minimal
impacts and accumulations; expect the lake-effect snowfall to
generally be limited to the eastern half of the U.P. through the
rest of this weekend into early next week as remnant cold air
behind the secondary cold front keeps temperatures around to
just below normal (highs in the 30s and lows in the mid-teens to
20s). Expect the lake effect snowfall to end by Monday or Tuesday
as the center of the sfc high finally makes it to the Upper
Great Lakes by Tuesday.

Expect a trend back to around/above normal temperatures for the
latter half of next week as an upper-level low pressure sets up
over the vicinity of the Desert SW/Rockies, allowing for warm
Gulf air to mix into the Upper Midwest. Could see rainfall
return late next week via a shortwave or robust low lifting
through the region, but confidence is low on precipitation
chances at this time due to model spread.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions continue for most of the forecast period with high
cirrus streaming through the area ahead of an approaching cold
front. An exception will be at KSAW, where southerly upslope flow
will result in periodic flight categories of IFR/LIFR overnight. The
front moves through early this morning, with Prob30 groups for
showers at all sites between ~09-16z. Some drops down to MVFR are
possible as showers move through, followed by clearing skies as
drier air moves in. Behind the front, gusty NW winds 25-30 kts are
expected, especially at CMX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

As warm air advection continues and a LLJ approaches ahead of an
incoming cold front the rest of this afternoon to this evening,
expect the southeasterly winds of 20 to 25 knots over the central
and eastern lake this afternoon to increase to southerly winds
around 30 knots tonight over the eastern lake. While a few gale
force gusts up to 35 knots could be seen from time to time along the
international border and near Whitefish Bay (up to as high as 40% in
some ensembles), given the strong inversion aloft, winds will at the
very best struggle to reach the sfc, meaning that the winds will be
driven exclusively by the pressure gradient and height falls.

Once the cold front moves through Saturday morning, expect a quick
reprieve in the winds before they pick up from the northwest;
currently there is around a 70 to 80% chance for northwesterly gales
to occur over the eastern lake beginning Saturday mid-afternoon and
continuing through Sunday. Thus, a Gale Warning has been issued for
the most eastern third of the lake, as the gusty winds aided by the
cold air advection behind the cold front continue to mix down to the
sfc throughout most of the weekend. However, I`m not so confident in
gale chances over the central lake; while sporadic low-end gale
chances up to 30 to 50% are being seen in the ensemble guidance, I`m
not so confident that gales will occur over this portion of the lake
given the smaller fetch, marginally weaker pressure gradient (more
ridging), and slightly warmer temperatures aloft. Therefore, kept
the Gale Watch going for the central lake for Saturday afternoon
through Sunday.

Expect the gusty northwesterly winds to continue through this
weekend until ridging begins to force its way into the Upper Great
Lakes Sunday night into Monday, with the center of the high pressure
ridge looking to arrive around Tuesday; the winds dwindle to 20
knots or less late Monday in response. With remnant ridging
remaining over the area into the middle of next week, expect the
light winds to continue across Lake Superior until possibly near the
end of next week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from this afternoon through Sunday evening for
     LSZ243>248-264-265.

  Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...JTP/LC
MARINE...TAP