840
FXUS63 KMQT 011909
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
309 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow showers diminishing this evening and tonight.

- Windy on Sunday into Monday with wind gusts of 30-40 mph
  likely (>70% chance) over much of the area, especially over
  the west half and Keweenaw.

- Gale force winds are expected across Lake Superior Sunday and Monday.

- Temperatures remain near normal today before rebounding
  slightly above normal into the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Off and on rain and show showers have been observed across Upper
Michigan for most areas outside of the south-central. Snow
accumulations have been light or non-existent thanks to ground
temperatures after sunrise warming into the 40s and 50s per MDOT
ground temperatures. Daytime temperatures have also warmed into the
low to mid 40s under mostly cloudy skies and northerly to
northeasterly flow.

The forecast area is currently under the influence of lingering
cyclonic flow in the wake of a closed low spinning to our south and
mid to upper level ridging building into the region from the
northwest. A surface high is also noted over the Central Plains. For
the remainder of the day and tonight, ridging will continue to build
into the region, resulting in ongoing lake effect to diminish and
lift offshore as southwesterly flow establishes itself. Increasing
winds aloft tonight are expected ahead of a stronger shortwave and
deepening surface low progressing eastward through Manitoba. By
Sunday, these winds will begin mixing to the surface as the
deepening low, now near 988mb, moves into western Ontario and the
core of a 40-50kt LLJ moves over western Lake Superior and Upper
Michigan. These southwesterly winds are expected to produce 30-40
mph gusts across the west half by Sunday afternoon. >45 mph winds
(wind advisory criteria) aren`t out of the realm of possibility per
mixing suggested in model soundings. Latest HREF probabilities climb
above 50% for most of the west half while the NBM confines this
potential mainly to the Keweenaw Peninsula Sunday afternoon. Will
hold off any Wind Advisory headlines for another cycle. Overnight
lows tonight should dip into the mid to upper 20s for areas removed
from the lakeshore but stay more mild, in the low 30s by the water.
Daytime highs Sunday climb into mid to upper 40s Sunday.

Cold front associated with the Manitoba/Ontario low will swing west
to east through the forecast area Sunday night. Pre-frontal rain
can`t be ruled out, mainly over Lake Superior, but the best chances
for rain come with the cold front across the east half as the nose
of a 170kt 300mb jet streak inches into the Upper Great Lakes,
providing more synoptic forcing for ascent into Monday morning. In
addition to the precip, continued strong gradient forces will linger
over the region with an 850mb airmass cooling to near -1C. This will
support another day of stronger winds over the forecast area, but
from the west. The gradient relaxes Monday night, allowing winds to
settle.

High pressure ridging emanating from a high over the Southeast will
keep the region dry through Tuesday afternoon. By then medium range
guidance continues to point to a progressive, quasi-zonal flow
pattern developing across the northern CONUS by then, allowing a
shortwave and surface low to move through the Upper Great Lakes.
There`s still questions about the exact placement of this low, with
large differences noted among the various deterministic guidance
packages. Should this system impact the forecast area, rain looks to
diminish Wednesday into Wednesday night. From there, another wave
looks to move into the region late Thursday/Friday. Eyes then fall
to the late weekend period, when a vigorous wave has the potential
to bring snow and wind impacts to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Scattered lake effect rain/snow showers continue to produce mainly
MVFR cigs with periods of VFR at Upper Michigan terminals as of 18z
Sat. Expect conditions to trend prevailing VFR through 22-23z as
showers taper off this evening. Quiet VFR conditions with winds
below 5 kt expected tonight, then increasing southwest winds Sun
morning ahead of the next approaching system. Winds increasing to 15-
20 kt with gusts to 25-30kt in the west including KIWD 10-12z Sun,
spreading east to KSAW by 15z Sun. Opted against inclusion of LLWS
for this package given unidirectional profiles and strong mixing to
surface depicted by model soundings, but LLWS will remain a
consideration for the next TAF package as 60 kt LLJ arrives between
FL020-040 after 18z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Northerly winds near 15 knots have been observed for a majority of
the day, with isolated to scattered lake effect showers progressing
south into Upper Michigan. These winds become southeasterlies
tonight as a high in the Central Plains continues eastward. Further
upstream, a deepening low pressure will move from Manitoba into
Ontario through Monday, allowing a strong 40-50kt LLJ to move over
western Lake Superior late tonight and Sunday. Guidance continues to
suggest the strong pressure gradient and low level mixing will be
able to support these winds near the surface and have opted to
upgrade the inherited Gale Watch to Gale Warnings. Latest NBM
guidance suggests ~30% chance for storms between Isle Royale and the
Keweenaw Peninsula and GEFS/EC suggest slightly higher probabilities
near 50% by Sunday afternoon. Given the warm air advection aloft
likely limiting mixing depth over the lake, opted not go higher than
Gales in this forecast. Cold front will swing west to east through
the lake Sunday night, enabling winds to shift to westerlies and
continue blowing at least 35-40kts into Monday night.

Winds settle back below 25 kt on Tuesday, with waves responding
accordingly in the wake of the system. Additional systems mid week
and late week will bring additional chances for headlines in the
long term.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday to 5 PM EDT /4 PM
     CDT/ Monday for LSZ162.

  Gale Warning from 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Sunday to 1 AM EDT
     /midnight CDT/ Monday for LSZ240-241.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ242>244.

  Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LSZ245>251-265>267.

  Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ263-
     264.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 7 AM EDT Monday for LMZ221-
     248-250.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...JTP