422
FXUS63 KMQT 230802
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain/snow mix lake effect showers end over the east today.

- Lake effect snow and wind may impact the Thanksgiving holiday
  weekend. Travelers and interested parties should continue to
  monitor the forecast as details become more clear over the
  coming week.

- There is a 50-60% chance for Gale Force and 20% chance for
  Storm Force winds on Lake Superior during the middle of next
  week. Light Freezing Spray is possible during this time period
  too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

A shortwave low over Ontario early this morning is continuing to
dive-down towards the St. Lawrence Seaway today, allowing for light
lake effect rain and snow showers to continue over at least the
eastern U.P. until this afternoon as shortwave ridging builds in.
Temperatures this morning have been warmer across most of the area
than what we saw yesterday morning, with many spots in the west and
east not getting below freezing yet as of the time of this writing
(around 2 AM EST). However, a cold pool that`s developed over the
central U.P. has allowed temperatures to tank into the upper 20s in
the Arnold/Watson area as well as northern Menominee and Delta
counties. As ridging continues to build into the area from the west
this morning, we could see lows drop down to around freezing in the
interior west before sunrise. The rest of the U.P. outside of the
central looks to mostly stay above freezing, preventing any snowfall
from accumulating (and melting any snowfall that stuck around from
yesterday). As skies clear out and warm air advection occurs today,
expect highs to soar into the 40s across the area, bringing pleasant
Fall conditions to the U.P. While a weak shortwave low riding the
ridge looks to pass over the west today, thinking the dry air in the
lower levels will prevent any precipitation from hitting the ground
(90+% chance of no measurable precipitation from this weak
shortwave). While troughing deepens across our region tonight, no
precipitation is expected as the lowest 5 to 10 kft of the
atmosphere looks to be pretty dry. Nevertheless, the mid-level cloud
cover could help insulate the area a tad, keeping lows in the U.P.
in the 30s, with the coldest temperatures just around freezing. Warm
air advection continues into Monday, with high temperatures looking
to be the warmest of the period thanks to 850mb temperatures of 3 to
6C and somewhat dry conditions in the lowest levels of the
atmosphere. However, I do have some reservations on whether highs
into the lower 50s will be realized as mid-level cloud cover is
expected to remain throughout the daylight hours and there may be a
SCT to BKN cloud deck at around 1 kft or less; if the lower cloud
deck is thicker i.e. following the NAM suite, then I`d expect highs
on Monday to be closer to what we will see today; if not, than we
could see some spots around 50F or potentially even a little warmer.

Our attention then turns to two shortwave lows, one lifting from the
Southern Plains/Colorado and the other one digging from southern
Alberta through the Northern Plains, phasing with one another and
creating a deepening low over the Upper Great Lakes by the middle of
next week. Rainfall associated with the phasing shortwaves looks to
begin around Monday night/Tuesday, with precipitation amounts
looking to be pretty light (just a few hundreths every 6 hours or
so) across most of Upper Michigan. Looking at the latest model runs,
it seems like guidance has trended the low a little bit further
south in its track, with most solutions now bringing the sfc low
through southern Lake Superior at around 991mb by Wednesday. In
addition, the low seems to not be as transient in the deterministic
Euro as it previously was, with the low now not leaving the lake for
Ontario and northern Quebec until Wednesday evening. What this
implies is that we may see rainfall initially across the area turn
to lake enhanced snowfall from west to east Tuesday night through
Wednesday, with the dry slot of the low potentially bringing a quick
cessation to precipitation over the central and east (and
potentially west if the low moves further north and west) late
Tuesday night into Wednesday before a transition over to lake
enhanced snowfall. Some the snowfall could be heavy at times as the
TROWAL moves overhead in addition to the cold air advection cycling
in from behind the low increasing latent heat release from Lake
Superior, allowing for potential precipitation banding to occur.
This looks to be greatest over the NW wind snow belts, particularly
over the west where upslope flow may also come into play (the
European ensemble is highlighting anomalously high snowfall amounts
for the western U.P. Tuesday night and Wednesday). In addition to
the snowfall, strong winds are expected behind the low, with NW
gusts up to 40 mph or greater possible (40 to 50% chance according
to the NBM, with the highest probabilities over the Keweenaw and
east near Lake Superior). As the snowfall goes from wet to dry and
fluffy with time Tuesday night through Wednesday and Wednesday
night, the high winds may create visibility problems in the NW wind
snow belts, especially near Lake Superior and over the Keweenaw. As
the low leaves the region, cold air advection and troughing continue
across the Upper Great Lakes through Thanksgiving into Friday,
allowing for lake effect snow showers to continue impacting the NW
wind snow belts. With winds looking to remain fairly gusty through
Thanksgiving, people traveling for Thanksgiving may want to keep an
eye on the forecast as heavy snowfall and blowing snow could create
hazardous driving conditions leading up to, during, and just after
the holiday.

While lake effect snow showers are expected to lighten up for this
upcoming weekend after Thanksgiving, expect the colder than normal
temperatures to persist as high temperatures are projected to remain
below freezing. We also could see another system hit us with
additional accumulating snowfall late this upcoming weekend or early
next week as polar air moves towards the Desert Southwest and Gulf
air tries to move north towards the Central and Eastern U.S.
However, with the track of the jet stream trending further south
than previously predicted, potential snowfall chances from any low
pressures are increasing at the expense potential rainfall chances.
Be sure to keep an eye on the extended forecast as another
accumulating snowfall event could hit the U.P. sometime near the end
of the extended period or just beyond it.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR conditions are expected through the night at CMX with lake
effect clouds pushing across the Keweenaw. Drier air moving into the
area should scatter out the lower cloud deck Sunday mid-morning with
VFR conditions thereafter. For IWD and SAW guidance has been
suggesting MVFR this evening but it has not been materializing. The
latest NBM has decreased the probabilities for MVFR, so have handled
this with a TEMPO at SAW for the next few hours behind the passing
front. Gusty winds (25-30kt) will continue at CMX into Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Northwest winds of 25 kts over the western lake to gales of 35 kts
(occasionally up to 40 kts) over the eastern lake early this
morning slowly dwindle back down to light winds of 20 kts or less
again by late this afternoon as shortwave ridging skirts back over
the area. However, as troughing deepens over the lake tonight into
Monday, expect winds to pick up from the south and southwest to 20
to 25 kts, before dwindling back down to 20 kts or less again by
late Monday as very weak ridging moves back overhead. Don`t expect
the weaker winds to last all that long, as two shortwave lows, one
digging from southern Alberta through the Northern Plains and the
other lifting from the Southern Plains/Colorado, phase with one
another over the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday.
As this occurs, expect the winds to increase from the northeast to
north Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the low moves through and
immediately behind the low on Wednesday, expect the winds to back
to the north-northwest to northwest, with strong cold air advection
potentially bringing gales of 35 to 45 kts across the lake (around a
60% chance); some Storm-Force gusts up to 50 kts cannot be ruled
out, with the NBM already showing a 20% chance of this occurring
(highest over the open eastern lake). In addition, the high winds
and strong cold air advection may be enough to bring some early-
season light freezing spray across the lake late Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

With northwest gales potentially continuing across the lake until
late Thursday (Thanksgiving), mariners will want to keep a close eye
on the forecast, as significant wave heights of 12 to 16 ft are
possible in this event, not to mention the poor visibility in the
lake enhanced/effect snow showers too.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ265.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP