155
FXUS63 KMQT 191959
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
259 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain with some snow mixing in for the high elevations
  tracks west to east tonight through Thursday.

- Benign, low impact weather looks to continue this weekend into
  the early part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery increasing clouds across the
UP as a shortwave drops south through the Canadian Prairie. This wave
will support a weak sfc low pressure reflection set to track through
Ontario tomorrow. Radar returns show an uptick in light rain/snow
shower activity in northern MN and far western Lake Superior, forced
by mid-level warm air advection. Expecting shower activity to spread
into the northwestern UP tonight and progress eastward across the
rest of the UP through Thursday. Snow may briefly mix in at times as
temperatures cool tonight just below freezing, mainly in the higher
elevation areas. Rainfall amounts remain rather meager as both the
latest NBM/HREF point to low probability <50% for amounts >0.1"
by Thursday night. Heading into Friday morning, the system`s
surface cold front will swing west to east, kicking out synoptic
precip and ushering in cooler midlevel temps that will be
sufficient enough for lake effect clouds / precip development
over the NW wind snowbelt, particularly the east half. Bufkit
profiles continue to be unimpressive, with dry air within the
DGZ, a small inverted V at the surface, and lake inversion
heights only 5-6 kft (highest east). This suggests some light
lake effect rain/flurries with graupel mixed in.

Upper Michigan then settles into a low impact, zonal flow pattern
this weekend into the early part of next week as daytime highs
remain slightly above seasonal norms in the low 40s. A few embedded
shortwaves will bring occasional chances for light precipitation,
but do not see anything particularly noteworthy on the horizon at
this time. Ensembles and their deterministic counterparts are honing
in on active weather returning mid-week with a pair of waves working
through the Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday, but differ on the speed
and potential phasing of said systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR holds until late this evening when a cold front brings primarily
rain showers in from the west. MVFR cigs return between 3-6Z
Thursday at IWD/CMX and 8-9Z Thursday at SAW when at the same time
IWD is lowering further to IFR. IFR cigs are also expected at SAW
late Thursday morning while there is a ~30% chance for IFR cigs at
CMX and LIFR cigs at IWD. The only site with anticipated vis
restrictions is at CMX down to MVFR with a 20-40% chance for IFR.
Improvement looks to be slow and more toward late in the day
Thursday. Otherwise light southwest winds persist between 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

Winds will begin to increase out of the southwest across Lake
Superior as the surface pressure gradient is squeezed between high
pressure to the south and low pressure approaching from the west.
This will result in winds increasing to 20-25 kt and spreading
eastward tonight into Thursday as waves build to 3-5 ft west of the
Keweenaw and 2-4 ft in the east. Winds shift westerly and
northwesterly later Thursday into Friday, with the passage of a cold
front, increasing NW winds between 25-30 kts and waves building to 4-
7 ft over the eastern half of the lake. Ensemble probability for
Gales to 35 kts are low, with the Euro ENS suggesting a 10-30%
chance across the eastern lake Friday afternoon and HREF/NBM only 10-
20%.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...77
MARINE...BW