676
FXUS63 KMQT 292109
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
409 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low pressure system passing south of the UP through Sunday will
bring system snowfall to the southern and eastern UP, with lake
effect snowfall kicking up for the northern and western UP. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for virtually all of Upper Michigan
through Sunday afternoon.

- Gusty northerly to northwesterly winds expected in the wake of the
low pressure. Gale Warnings in effect for the east half of Lake
Superior, with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected over the land.

- Light to moderate lake effect snowfall expected to continue
through next week as a cooler than normal airmass resides over the
UP.

- The next chance of widespread snowfall comes with a fast-hitting
Clipper Low late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Radar mosaic shows lake effect snowfall having fully shifted
offshore over the east half of Lake Superior and light radar returns
shifting north over the south-central UP, lining up with KMNM METARs
showing light snowfall beginning this afternoon. This snowfall
arrives ahead of a RAP-analyzed 1010mb low pressure centered over
northern MO this afternoon with neutrally tilted troughing aloft
lagging not far behind. This neutral tilt will limit the potential
for this low to deepen like the previous one did. The path of the
low is mostly certain at this point, with ensembles honing in on a
track that brings the low through Chicago tonight, the Saginaw Bay
Sunday morning, and to the southern Ontario/Quebec line Sunday
evening. The fast-moving nature of the low will limit synoptic
snowfall accumulation potential, though the cool air aloft over a
still relatively warm Lake Michigan will give a lake enhancement as
easterly flow will be over the south-central while the synoptic
portion of the snowfall occurs. Given the additional cyclonic
surface flow with the low in the region, lake effect snowfall is
expected to reinvigorate this evening, first with a dominant
northeast-wind band over the west part of Lake Superior and then
with northerly multibands overnight becoming northwesterly by Sunday
afternoon. The northeasterly dominant band will move onshore over
the western UP overnight, bringing a quick burst of 0.5"/hr (30-50%
chance) to 1"/hr rates (10-30% chance), though as the stronger band
will be replaced by shorter-fetch bands as well as the arrival of
drier air at the surface and aloft and shrinking inversion heights,
so total accumulations in the west should remain sub-Warning
criteria. Over the counties adjacent to Lake Superior outside of the
west, orographic support will help boost the forcing. Rural high
terrain areas near the Baraga/Marquette line may see snow totals up
to 8 inches, though the populated areas will see around 3 to 6
inches of snowfall. Thus, the current Winter Weather Advisories look
to remain on track, and while the snow totals are not extreme, this
will cause some slick road conditions during a crucial holiday
travel period as people return from their Thanksgiving destinations.
Adding to the hazards will be the wind, which in the wake of the low
will gust to around 20-30 kt, especially near the shores of the
Great Lakes. This may cause some localized blowing and drifting
snow, which could make corridors such as M-28 in Marquette and Alger
Counties and US-2 in Schoolcraft County even more treacherous.

By Sunday evening, ridging approaches quickly from the west,
bringing down the intensity and coverage of lake effect showers, as
NBM QPF struggles to break 0.05"/6hr, even in the strongest forecast
NW wind LES bands. LES will continue to some extent, as
thermodynamic support for LES will be abundant considering 50-90%
chances within the LREF ensemble of 850mb temperatures being at
least -10 C or colder over around 5 C temperature Lake Superior all
week. This will allow for the potential for some rare SW-wind LES
over the Keweenaw Peninsula Monday, though accumulations exceeding 1
inch by Tuesday morning are only above 50% north of Laurium.
Otherwise, the next system threatening to bring widespread snowfall
to the UP will come with a weak Alberta Clipper low passing through
northern Ontario late Tuesday into Wednesday. While snow totals look
unimpressive with the trailing cold front, chances of multiple
inches of accumulating NW wind LES climbs to 30-60 percent for
Wednesday. Additionally, the cool NW winds behind the front will
allow for Thursday morning low temperatures to fall to the single
digits for much of the UP, with 20-40% chances of sub-zero lows
along the MI/WI state line. Uncertainty then grows in the forecast
as a high pressure takes place over much of the Midwest Thursday and
ensembles have a wide range of solutions on when a low pressure
might pass through the region to break up the high pressure. The CPC
outlooks through at least the month of December prefer higher than
normal precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures, so hopes
for a White Christmas for the UP remain high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Mainly VFR conditions continue to prevail across Upper Michigan as
of 18z Sat, but look to trend down to MVFR later this afternoon as
snow spread into U.P. terminals from the south 21-00z. Expect
further deterioration to IFR 00-03z as heaviest snow moves into the
area tonight. Snow transitions to more of a lake effect regime on
Sunday, with variable IFR/MVFR conditions and increasing north winds
gusting to 20-25 kt through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

A low pressure passing through southern Lake Michigan tonight and
through Lake Huron tomorrow will kick up northeast winds to 25-30 kt
over the west half tonight. As winds turn northerly and
northwesterly behind the low, chances of gale force gusts to 35 kt
remain around 40-60 percent for Sunday, so Gale Watches have been
upgraded to Warnings over the east (though the Watch over the north-
central has been cancelled as chances of gales over that zone
have fallen below 20 percent). Approaching high pressure will
quickly drop winds to near 20 kt Sunday evening as they become
westerly and southwesterly. Monday, chances of a brief
southwesterly gale are around 30 percent over the west half as
the pressure gradient compresses with a Clipper Low approaching.
In the wake of that low, northwesterly wind gusts ramp up to 30
kt with chances of gales around 40-60% on Wednesday. Winds fall
back down to 25-30 kt for Thursday with the resumption of high
pressure near the Great Lakes, though uncertainty increases late
in the week into the weekend as models differ on when the
arrival of the next system will be and how strong that system
might be.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Sunday for
     MIZ001>006-009-084.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for MIZ007-014-
     085.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for
     MIZ010>013.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ245>248-265.

  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Sunday for LSZ249-250-266.

  Gale Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LSZ251-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...GS