485
FXUS63 KMQT 082115
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
415 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Southern Schoolcraft
and Luce counties where lake effect snow transitioning to system
snow will bring 3-8" tonight through Tuesday morning. Highest
amounts are expected closer to the Chippewa/Mackinac county borders.

- Lighter snow amounts expected over the rest of the U.P. tonight as
a weak clipper moves through.

- A stronger system is expected to pass south of the U.P. Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, bringing another round of light snow.
There remains a possibility that the system will take a more
northerly track and bring heavier snow amounts. The highest
probability for snow amounts greater than 4" will be along the WI
border, especially across Menominee County.

- Cooler than normal temperatures continue through this week and
beyond. Low temperatures in the single digits to near zero are
possible late this week into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 414 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Latest surface observations show southerly surface flow increasing
across the region ahead of the next system, helping temperatures to
jump up into the 20s across much of Upper Michigan this afternoon.
GOES water vapor imagery reveals a weak shortwave trough upstream
over the Canadian Prairies, with an associated surface low crossing
into southern Manitoba. The aforementioned south-southwest flow
ahead of this system will help to focus a dominant lake effect snow
band off of Lake Michigan into parts of the far eastern U.P.
tonight, evidence of which is already starting to show up on
regional radar imagery along the Schoolcraft/Mackinac County line.
Hi-res models continue to depict this band strengthening through
this evening, with probabilities for snowfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour increasing above 60% after midnight. The Winter Weather
Advisory thus remains on track for southern Schoolcraft and Luce
Counties, with expected snowfall amounts ranging from 3-8" through
early Tuesday morning and the heavier amounts mainly expected to be
found along the Mackinac and Chippewa County lines. Meanwhile, the
Clipper over Manitoba will track east across the U.P. and Lake
Superior overnight, bringing a round of lighter snow on the order of
1-3" across the rest of the area through early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday will feature highs in the mid to upper 20s and bring a brief
lull in precipitation between systems, save for a few light lake
effect showers snow in the northwest wind snow belts. Attention then
quickly turns to the next, much stronger, Clipper system moving out
of Canada Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Guidance continues
to show a notable split with regards to the track of this system.
The bulk of the global models depict a track across south/central WI
which would spare much of the U.P. from the heaviest snow while the
NAM and various Hi-res guidance continue to stick to a more
northerly track closer to the MI border which would bring higher
snow amounts across our area. The official forecast continues to
favor more of a southern solution due to good run to run consistency
and relatively tight clustering of global ensemble members, which
would result in another lighter snowfall of 1-3" across most of the
area, with the highest amounts found along the WI border.
Probabilistic guidance currently depicts around a 25% chance for 4"
or more along the WI border, with a 40-50% chance over Menominee
County and only single digit chances across the rest of the area.
However, will continue to leave the door open for the potential for
a northern shift in the track in the next few forecast runs, which
would bring a quick increase in snow totals across the rest of the
U.P. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, medium range guidance continues to point to cold
temperatures persisting across the region through the period as
highs fall back into the teens and overnight lows again flirt with
sub zero readings by the end of this week. Models continue to hint
at another Clipper system approaching during the weekend, but differ
greatly on strength, progression, and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

A clipper system will move through Upper Michigan tonight, bringing
with it lowering ceilings, gusty winds near 20kts, and snow. Ahead
of the system, increasing clouds this evening will gradually lower
bases, resulting in the development of MVFR prior to snowfall. Once
the snow sets in, expecting mostly IFR conditions at all sites from
the lowering ceilings, but also from higher snowfall rates. This is
expected to begin mainly after midnight. By morning, the synoptic
snow should end, followed by lake effect snow and MVFR conditions.
Expecting the showers to end through the morning at KIWD and KSAW,
with these terminals trending toward VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Southwest winds will continue to increase into the 25-30 kt range
across Lake Superior and far northern Lake Michigan this evening,
allowing wave heights to build to 3-6 ft. Expect winds to peak below
gale force, leaving small craft headlines in place through early
tomorrow. Wind will decrease to around 15 kt across Lake Superior by
Tuesday afternoon as we see a lull between systems. Winds will then
quickly increase again out of the northeast Tuesday evening as the
next system passes south of the area, with winds turning northerly
overnight. Opted against issuing a Gale Watch at this time as models
depict only a 25-35% chance for gales between the Keweenaw and Isle
Royale for a relatively short period Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Will also have to watch for moderate to locally heavy
freezing spray in these area Tuesday night. Winds then turn
northwesterly and drop below 20 kt for much of the rest of the week.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007-014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...CB