646
FXUS63 KMQT 040812
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
312 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief dry period today gives way to rounds of wet weather the
rest of the week, with measurable snow possible into the weekend.

- Temperatures rebound slightly above normal into most of the work
week, becoming cooler than normal by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Early morning RAP analysis and water vapor imagery indicate
increasingly zonal midlevel flow developing over the north-central
US and Great Lakes, though a subtle shortwave is present over the
Dakotas. Further upstream, another shortwave is moving onshore of
the Pacific NW. Closer to home, surface ridging extending into the
Great Lakes from surface high pressure well to the south is leading
to generally quiet and partly cloudy conditions to start us off.
Satellite does show some mid/upper level cloud cover stretching over
the southern UP from the aforementioned upstream features. Winds
remain elevated over the Keweenaw and over Superior, but will slowly
decrease through the morning. Meanwhile, temperatures are hovering
in the mid/upper 30s across most of the UP, and in the lower 40s
where cloud cover has been more persistent. We should see
temperatures bottoming out generally in the mid and upper 30s, but
some of the typically cooler interior spots could fall even further
into the lower 30s. Temperatures rebound into the lower/mid 50s this
afternoon while cloud cover thickens.

Tonight, the wave over the Pacific NW ripples through our zonal flow
while deepening, moving over the UP around 06Z. Though the system
will reach maximum intensity well to our east, it appears that an
area of frontogenesis to the north of the low track will force a
period of rainfall tonight into Wednesday, with a brief period of
trailing lake effect rainfall mainly for the east half on Wednesday.
We are not looking at a washout by any stretch, with most of the
area only picking up on rain totals of around 0.10-0.20in. It will
get fairly breezy in the wake of this system as it strengthens to
near or a bit below 1000 mb while moving east of Lake Huron on
Wednesday; expect NW wind gusts of 25-35 mph.

After ridging builds in briefly for Wednesday night/Thursday,
another clipper system looks to bring light precipitation Thursday
night into Friday. In the wake of this system, there is increasing
consensus that an extension of the Hudson Bay upper low will dip
south into the Great Lakes, likely resulting in the coldest airmass
of the season thus far. Cluster analysis shows that there is
uncertainty with the depth of this trough especially in the Sun/Mon
timeframe, which could be the difference between a seasonably cool
airmass and a bit more significant of a cold air outbreak, which has
implications for lake effect rain and snow. For now, NBM mean values
show highs/lows in the 30s/20s by the weekend, with lake effect rain
and snow showers common.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail under high pressure, with winds falling below
10 kt at SAW and IWD, though still gusty at CMX with gusts over 30
kt as of this TAF issuance. As the next disturbance approaches,
cloud cover will increase in coverage and decrease in cloud base
height. Chances of -SHRA at IWD and CMX around 40-50 percent between
00Z and 06Z Wednesday and 30-40 percent at SAW for the same period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Winds generally out of the west continue to gust to around 25-30kts
across much of the lake, and up to 20kts in the western arm. Winds
continue to slowly fall back throughout the daytime hours. After a
brief period of winds less than 20 kt tonight, winds quickly
increase behind a strengthening low on Wednesday. Currently
probabilities for gales over the eastern half are around 40%, but
bearing in mind that we are looking at a good shot of cold air
moving in, have decided to issue a Gale Watch for Wednesday
afternoon and evening. There is around a 30% probability of gales
returning Friday into Friday night as even colder air arrives over
the lakes.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
     for LSZ250-251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...BW/GS
MARINE...LC