486
FXUS63 KMQT 130525
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1225 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patches of black ice could form on untreated roadways tonight
  over the central and western U.P where snowmelt occurred
  during the day.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for parts of Lake Superior for
  northwest 34-40 knot winds through tonight.

- Lake effect rain and snow showers are expected into Thursday with
  little to no impacts.

- A gradual warm up to above normal temperatures is expected by this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

This afternoon satellite and model analysis showed the Great lakes
under northwesterly flow aloft with an upper level low over Labrador
and upper level ridging over the intermountain west. A weak
shortwave had brought a round of more widespread lake effect
showers, mixed with snow at times, this morning to the central and
eastern U.P. Lake effect rain showers continued this afternoon over
the east. Temperatures were in the 30s to 40s.

Tonight through Thursday expect northwest flow to continue with
850mb temps sufficient for lake effect showers (mainly rain) over
the eastern U.P. Some snow could mix in overnight for inland areas
but little if any accumulation is expected with temperatures
remaining above freezing.

For those looking to view the aurora tonight low clouds will be in
place over much of the U.P this evening except for areas along the
MI/WI border where there had been clearing through the day. The
southern edge of the clouds should erode further near sunset as
diurnal instability drops off. Across the norther tier of the U.P
and the east cloud cover will be more stubborn as northwest flow
continues to pull lake effect clouds and showers inland. A better
chance for clearing will come after midnight across the central U.P,
with ensemble probs of >50% cloud cover dropping off to around 30%
west of a line from Copper Harbor to Marquette to Escanaba. There is
little if any chance of clearing over the eastern U.P.

Inversion heights over Lake Superior will fall on Thursday as the
midlevels warm and drier air filters into the area. It probably
won`t be enough to shut the lake effect showers off all together but
coverage should diminish through the day over the eastern U.P. Over
the central and western U.P expect sunshine with temperatures
moderating into the low to mid 40s across the U.P.

The western ridge will shift east through Friday bringing southerly
flow back into the region and further moderating temperatures with
highs in the mid 40s to near 50. A cold front will sweep across the
U.P this weekend through there are still some differences in timing
among the guidance. The most likely solution is the that the front
moves through Saturday late morning to early afternoon with rain
showers and falling temperatures behind the front. As showers
associated with the front push east additional lake effect rain and
showers will form in the northwest wind snowbelts. With cold air
advection Saturday night through Sunday night expect lake effect
rain and snow shower chances to continue, diminishing from west to
east on Monday. At this time impactful snow accumulations do not
look likely.

There is the chance for rain and snow showers over the entire U.P
Monday night into Tuesday as a weak system moves through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR prevails at all sites through the forecast period. Skies remain
clear at IWD, and patchy lake clouds should continue to clear out at
CMX and SAW. Westerly winds remain elevated at CMX, gusting to
around 20-25kts tonight and for most of Thursday before falling back
Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Northwesterly gales continue over much of the central through
eastern part of the lake late this afternoon.  Expect winds to fall
below gale, 25 to 30 kts, late this evening in the central but
continue until morning over the east-central, downwind of the
Keweenaw. Winds fall below 20 kts over all of the lake Thursday
evening and become southerly on Friday, increasing to 30 kts by
Friday night ahead of the next cold front. A period of stronger,
cold unstable flow is expected behind the cold front as a broad low
pressure moves through Northern Ontario to Quebec which will result
in gusty northwest winds with a moderate chance (50-60%) for gales
Saturday night through Sunday night, especially over the central
portion of the lake.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 1 AM EST early this morning for LSZ243>251-
     264-267.

  Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LSZ265-266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...NL