605
FXUS63 KMQT 282103
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
403 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories wind down this evening as lake effect
snow showers decrease in coverage and intensity.

- A low pressure system tracking through Lower Michigan late
Saturday and Sunday will bring 50-60% chances of 6 inches of system
snow along Lake Michigan, and a reinvigoration of Lake Superior lake
effect snowfall. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for both
the system snow and the lake effect snow.

- Lake effect snow showers persist along with cool overnight lows
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

KMQT radar returns show the once-proud northwest wind lake effect
snowbands breaking apart into a more cellular convection mode, and
while a few of these cells are capable of brief spurts of 1"/hr
rates, their residence time over any given location will be brief,
so the threat posed by the lake effect snow continues to wane. As
such, with 6-hr snowfall accumulations now sub-1.5"/6 hr, Winter
Weather Advisories will be allowed to expire in the east this
evening. Aloft, RAP analysis still shows a vertically stacked closed
low over eastern Quebec with primarily northwesterly flow over much
of the central CONUS, though a shortwave trough is diving
through the Rockies of Montana and Wyoming towards Colorado,
where a namesake Low is developing at the surface, deepening
from 1008mb to 1004 mb throughout the day today.

That Colorado Low will not be in Colorado forever. Ensembles have
honed in on a surface low pressure track from northern Missouri
Saturday evening to Central to Lower Michigan Sunday morning and
quickly to the Ontario/Quebec line by Sunday night. The synoptic
precipitation will be limited to the counties along the Lake
Michigan shores plus Luce County. However, with the passage of the
low comes another shot of cold air aloft and the cyclonic wind
pattern will help reinvigorate lake effect snowfall, first out of
the north and becoming northwest. CAMs are starting to hone in on a
large northeasterly band during the day Saturday that washes ashore
over the west as winds become north to northwest, and if that band
retains much of its dominant, long-lake axis intensity, some brief
travel hazards cannot be ruled out, however the uncertainty is high
in how well that band will hold together as the winds shift, so no
Winter Weather Advisories over the west for now. The more noteworthy
travel hazards will be in the south-central to east where the
synoptic snow gets lake-enhancement from Lake Michigan and for
Baraga, Marquette, and Alger Counties, which will get decent lake
effect snow showers despite the lack of synoptic snow. HREF LPMM
snow plots show a reasonable "worst case scenario" of 6-7 inches of
snowfall along the M-35 corridor from Menominee to Escanaba, which
would make for some late holiday weekend travel headaches if it
verified. However, more reasonable solutions come out to around 5
inches, which is still significant enough to warrant an Advisory,
and if the 00Z CAM suite shows continued improving confidence in 6+
inches, an upgrade to a warning cannot be ruled out. To the north,
while the depth of the inversion is not overwhelming (~7.5 kft), the
DGZ is potentially up to 5 kft deep and the depth of saturation in
the column could reach up to 25-30 kft. This, along with the
aforementioned cyclonic surface flow and orographic support from the
terrain along Lake Superior will lead to some 4-6 inch snowfall
totals for Baraga, Marquette, and Alger Counties, with the
wilderness north of US-41 from Ishpeming to Marquette Township
potentially seeing up to 7 inches. As the low quickly exits the
region to the east on Sunday, high pressure wastes no time
reestablishing its presence over the Midwest and only light lake
effect snow showers remain Sunday evening into next week.

Uncertainty grows into next week as high pressure skirts around the
Great Lakes in the wake of the low and then one or more clipper lows
pass near the area next week, though ensembles are highly spread on
the track, intensity, and timing of such a feature. With Lake
Superior around 5 C, 850mb temperatures of around -10 C should all
but guarantee at least some presence of LES, and the LREF suggests
50-90% chances of that temperature or cooler, even with periods of
SW flow next week. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail at
the surface as well, especially overnight, where the NBM calls for
single-digit lows for many interior UP locations, including some
lows near 0 (though raw, un-"bias corrected" model guidance would
suggest warmer temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

IWD and CMX remain under generally MVFR restrictions with stubborn
lake clouds over the area, but stray snow showers reaching the
terminals at times are not expected to have any significant impact
on visibility. A gradual improvement to VFR is expected at IWD and
CMX after 00Z as winds back to the SW, but ceilings drop once again
to MVFR at CMX for at least a brief period early Saturday morning.
SAW, meanwhile, has risen to low-end VFR and is expected to remain
there the rest of the forecast period. NW winds continue to gust to
near 20-25kts early this afternoon, but decrease into the late
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Wind gusts are already sub-20 kt in the west half this afternoon,
though northwest wind gusts prevail at around 25-30 kt. The
weakening trend in those gusts continues, with gusts falling below
20 kt lakewide tonight. Waves will follow in the decreasing trend,
falling below 3 ft early Saturday morning. As a low pressure passes
over the southern Great Lakes basin, northeast winds pick up to 20-
25 kt in the west Saturday evening, with northerly wind gusts of 25-
30 kt across the lake overnight into Sunday morning. As winds become
northwesterly Sunday, a brief, localized gale to 35 knots is
possible (around 50 percent), but confidence in the timing and
location is too low to issue a watch at this time. Given the fast-
moving nature of the system, high pressure will bring winds back
down to 20-25 kt Sunday night. From there, uncertainty grows as high
pressure to the south of the lake is contrasted by weaker low
pressures to the north, with each potential feature bringing the
potential for gusty winds and perhaps gales (up to 30 percent
chance, highest Monday and Wednesday PM), but predictability is low
at this time.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for MIZ004>006.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006-
     007-014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for MIZ007-014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for MIZ011>013.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...GS