014
FXUS63 KMQT 221122
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
622 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing cold front will bring chances for rain and snow
  showers today, lingering into the evening.

- Lake effect snow and wind may impact the Thanksgiving holiday
  weekend. Travelers and interested parties should continue to
  monitor the forecast as details become more clear over the
  coming week.

- There is a 50% chance for Gale Force and 25% chance for Storm
  Force winds/light freezing spray on Lake Superior during the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Early morning water vapor and RAP analysis show deep troughing
digging into new England, weak ridging over the Great Lakes, and
another shortwave dropping into the Northern Plains. Closer to home,
stubborn lake clouds remain blanketed over the eastern UP, with
mostly clear skies across the central and eastern UP. Clear skies
and light winds have helped temperatures fall back quite nicely into
the upper teens and 20s so far across the western half of the UP,
and it would not be a shock to see temperatures fall even further
into the lower teens into the pre-dawn hours. Meanwhile,
temperatures may struggle to drop even into the upper 20s under the
aforementioned lake clouds.

Winds back to the south after daybreak as the warm front associated
with the approaching wave lifts through, allowing cloud cover to
fill back in and kicking off a quick batch of precipitation. This
starts off mainly as snow showers this morning, but as temperatures
warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s today, expect a transition over
to mainly rain showers with just a few snowflakes mixing in.
Significant snow accumulations are not expected given marginal
temperatures and generally light QPF. The cold front moves through
late afternoon and evening, turning winds over to the NW. Model
soundings, with plenty of dry air and lowering inversion heights,
are not so supportive of significant lake effect. However, a little
more moisture present in model soundings over the Keweenaw and north-
central, and the longer fetch off of Superior into the eastern UP,
will keep the potential for lake effect rain and snow showers
lingering in those locations into tonight. Lake effect tapers off
Sunday as a ridge begins to build over the Great Lakes once again,
allowing for quiet weather into Monday. This period will feature the
warmest temperatures of the week; look for highs in the 40s to and
perhaps closer to 50 for some Sunday, and well into the 40s and
lower 50s Monday.

Then, we face the potential for more active weather the rest of the
week. Current analysis over CONUS positions an upper level low along
the southern California coast. As this weekend progresses, this
feature will press through the 4 Corners, ejecting into the Southern
or Central Plains by Sunday night. Ridging stretches atop this
feature into middle Canada ahead of a another wave digging into the
Northern Rockies. Guidance is a little mixed on how or if these
waves will interact over the Northern Plains, which impacts the
duration and magnitude of the following lake effect event. The
general idea presented in all guidance packages though suggests that
synoptic rain will spread into the region Monday night and Tuesday
and then transition over to lake effect snow showers in the Tuesday
night to Wednesday timeframe. Main questions we`re still grappling
with are the position and timing of the synoptic surface low, how
fast temperatures will cool Tuesday night and Wednesday, and how
long the lake effect event will persist. These will all impact snow
accumulations. Additionally, the position of the surface low will
impact wind speeds and blowing snow potential. At the very least,
latest deterministic EC, GFS, and Canadian all maintain snow showers
in the northwest wind snowbelts Thanksgiving and into Friday.
Through this period, the EC and Canadian ensembles currently suggest
a 50-80% chance of at least 6 inches for portions of these snowbelts
while keeping the south-central snow free. More clarity in this
should evolve with time. For now, the recommendation for those with
Thanksgiving travel plans in the Great Lakes is to continue
monitoring forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to hold across the TAF sites the rest of
this morning. However, as a shortwave low potentially brings light
snow showers (eventually turning to rain from west to east
throughout the afternoon) across SAW and CMX today, we may see
conditions drop down to MVFR cigs at times this afternoon at CMX;
current LAMP guidance has MVFR condition chances at CMX up to around
30% this afternoon, with the greatest chance of it happening at
around 18 to 19z. As the shortwave responsible for the showers moves
out of the region this evening, some remnant light rain showers
could persist over CMX through this evening. In addition, with cold
air advection creating lake effect cloud cover across the region,
all of the terminals could drop down to MVFR cigs by tonight (30 to
70% chance); the greatest chances for this happening are over CMX,
and the lowest over IWD, although I`m confident enough in the MVFR
cigs over IWD to include it in the TAF for now.

As for winds, light winds this morning give way to S/SW`rly flow by
this afternoon. After the cold front of the low passes, expect the
winds to become W to NW`rly tonight. While we may see some short-
lived marginal LLWS at SAW and potentially even IWD early this
evening, given that the low is moving pretty fast, it won`t stay
around for long. There could be some low-level turbulence across the
terminals late tonight as some of the strong winds aloft could
struggle to reach the sfc. However, given that the winds are all
coming from the same direction, LLWS was not mentioned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

NW winds over the eastern half of the lake continue to gust to near
20kts early this morning, but are expected to continue to fall back
while backing to the south after daybreak. Anticipating these lower
winds to only linger into the afternoon, when pressure falls and
southerlies increase with the passage of an afternoon/evening
surface trough. By early Sunday morning, another shot of colder air
aloft across the east will push winds to near 30kts. A weak
isallobaric component may allow for northwest low end gale after
midnight through around 8am, though ensemble guidance remains
modest, showing only around a 30-40% chance for gales across the
central and eastern portions of the lake. Have therefore held off on
issuing any headlines. Any gale potential quickly falls off Sunday
morning, then NW winds finally fall back below 20kts Sunday evening.
Winds look to remain mostly below 20kts through at least Tuesday.

Next week, a system is expected to move through the Great Lakes.
There`s still a number of questions about how this event will
evolve, including whether or not the surface low will deepen over
the region and how quickly it will move through the region. What is
certain though, is that the airmass moving in behind the system will
be notably colder, which increases the likelihood of gales in the
Tuesday night through Thursday night window. At this point, Storm
Force Winds and pockets of light freezing spray cannot be ruled out.
Given the clustering differences among the EC, Canadian, and GFS
ensemble membership, there`s varying degrees of potential outcomes
at this point. Given this, the latest Gale probabilities near 50%
and Storms near 25% make sense. As we move into next week, some of
this should improve and a clarity on anticipated conditions should
materialize.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP/LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JTP/LC