851
FXUS63 KMQT 051909
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
209 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Off and on light snow is mostly expected this weekend.

- Stronger band of lake effect snow from Lake Michigan could impact
  eastern Upper Michigan, including US-2 and M-28, on Monday.

- Widespread snow opportunities exist Monday night into Tuesday
  and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Colder than normal temperatures continue through the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Mostly cloudy skies have been observed across Upper Michigan behind
this morning`s weak shortwave. Light precip has also been noted,
mostly across the east and south with temperatures across the
forecast area climbing through the teens and low 20s. Periodic
precip will continue to be possible for the rest of today, but with
mid-level dry air in place per model soundings, precip should
continue to be light and possibly mixed with freezing drizzle.

Mid to upper level ridging is currently noted building up the west
coast while a downstream trough is positioned extending south from
Hudson Bay. This is resulting in northwest flow aloft and exposing
the forecast area to any clipper system transiting southeast across
middle Canada and the Northern Plains. Deterministic and ensemble
system guidance don`t really deviate much from this pattern until at
least mid-December. This will support continued shots of colder
airmasses alongside clipper or clipper-like systems.

The next such system drops through the region tonight into early
Saturday. Latest HRRR shows a band of snowfall developing along the
system`s cold front pushing southeast into Upper Michigan tonight,
followed by lake effect snow showers. Limited moisture with the
front, as well as a pronounced dry inversion beginning near 5k feet
in the shower activity afterwards, suggests mostly light snow.
However, amplified low level convergence associated with a lingering
surface trough across eastern Lake Superior may help focus shower
activity into eastern Upper Michigan. In addition to the lowering
DGZ due to increased colder air moving overhead, stronger bands
capable of producing faster snowfall rates into portions of eastern
Alger and northern Schoolcraft counties tonight into Saturday can`t
be ruled out. Overall though, HREF and REFS suggests probabilities
of >0.5 inches per hour are mostly below 20%. Given this and total
snow likely to remain below 4 inches for most, opted not to issue a
Winter Weather Advisory for Alger/northern Schoolcraft. Across the
western traditional northwest wind snowbelts, the same may occur
into Gogebic and the higher terrain spots along the spin. However,
lower inversion heights and the slower snowfall rates don`t prompt
the need for an advisory.

Another wave moves through the lower Midwest Saturday night into
Sunday while another moves over Lake Superior. Together, these will
continue the snow shower potential downwind of Lake Superior into
eastern Upper Michigan into Sunday. Weakening gradient flow may
support mesolow development on Lake Superior, which could result in
brief stronger periods of snowfall into Alger/Luce/Schoolcraft
Sunday morning. Also can`t rule out light snow elsewhere in Upper
Michigan, especially if the system to our south trends a little more
northward. Afterwards, surface high to the southeast with another
mid-upper level wave moving southeast through the Great Lakes may
help to focus convergent flow on Lake Michigan Monday into Monday
night before a surface low deepens on Lake Superior by Tuesday
morning. Guidance is suggesting a strong convergent band could lift
into eastern Upper Michigan, impacting the US-2 and M-28 stretches
Monday afternoon/evening before widespread snow moves through Upper
Michigan overnight into Tuesday morning. From there, the next
clipper and widespread snow opportunity looks to move through
Tuesday night/Wednesday. Clustering of this low is modest at the
moment, suggesting there is room for the system to take a more
northern or southern track. This will impact snow amounts, wind
speeds, and potential lake enhancement off Lake Michigan and or
Lake Superior.

Temperatures will continue to land on the chillier side in this
forecast period. Overnight lows in the teens to single digits are
mostly expected, although below zero lows look likely Sunday night
for most of the interior west half. Daytime highs each day are
expected to be in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions continue across the TAF sites for the period
as another couple of disturbances pass by the region this evening
through Saturday morning. That being said, could see VFR conditions
at SAW this afternoon before lowering MVFR cigs return this evening.
Expect winds to pick up from the NW tonight, especially across CMX
where the winds look to be the gustiest; blowing/drifting snow could
be an issue at times. When snow showers move in tonight through
Saturday morning, we could see degradations down to IFR at times
across IWD and CMX. Meanwhile, thinking any snow that makes it to
SAW will be too light to drop conditions to IFR tonight through
Saturday morning. Lake effect snow showers look to continue across
the NW wind snow belts Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

The expected pattern across the region in this forecast period will
continue to supply colder shots of air and periodic transiting
clipper or clipper like systems through Lake Superior. This will
result in off and on periods of elevated winds and waves, and
freezing spray.

Gale conditions lightened this morning, leaving behind winds mostly
below 20kts, per latest observations, on Lake Superior. This
southwest flow will become northwesterly tonight after a cold
frontal passage. Winds increase in the postfrontal airmass to near
30kts north and east of the Keweenaw. Near or the occasional gale
force wind gust can`t be ruled out, but latest guidance has trended
this potential down: mostly 20-30%. Opted not to issue a gale
warning because of this.

Winds settle through the day, falling below 20kts lake-wide by
evening. Another ramp up is expected late Saturday night into Sunday
to 25-30kts across the east half before settling overnight. Monday
night into Tuesday, another system will try to move through the
Great Lakes, but guidance is a little mixed on whether this will
result in a deepening surface low over northern Lake Superior
overnight into Tuesday morning. Should this occur, wouldn`t be
surprised if low end gales end up being realized. A more potent
low drops southeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday night/Wednesday.
Right now ensemble clustering is modest as deterministic guidance
brings it through Wisconsin. This suggests guidance isn`t quite sold
on the exact track and it may trend further north or south. Should
the low take a more northerly track through Upper Michigan, gales
would be certain, but if it trends further south, gales may not be
realized.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW/JTP