822
FXUS63 KMQT 201955
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
255 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to isolated lake effect rain/snow showers are
  possible tonight through Friday across the eastern U.P.

- Benign, low impact weather this weekend into the early part of
  next week.

- Confidence is increasing that lake effect snow may impact
  Thanksgiving holiday weekend travel. Travelers and interested
  parties should continue to monitor the forecast as details
  become more clear over the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Cloudy skies hang over Upper Michigan this afternoon as a shortwave
presses through Ontario. WAA driven showers have largely moved
through the CWA, tracking across the eastern UP as of writing this
discussion. Knocking on our door to the west is the sfc cold front,
where veered NW winds are currently reaching the western arm of Lake
Superior. As this front continues east into the UP tonight, another
round of light showers is possible, though increasing dry air aloft
will limit shower potential. As colder air aloft filters in overhead
Lake Superior tonight into Friday, scattered lake effect rain / snow
showers will be seen in the eastern UP. Model soundings remain
unimpressive with dry air within the DGZ and sub-cloud layers, and
low lake inversions only 5-6k ft, so not expecting anything more
than a few hundreths of QPF through Friday unless persistent showers
linger over one area between Munising and the SOO. Lake effect
showers diminish Saturday as winds back ahead of a weak wave. With
dry antecedent air in place and weak forcing for ascent, low impact
scattered showers may be seen across the N and E UP Saturday
afternoon.

We then settle into a more zonal pattern Sunday / Monday, keeping
things dry and mild with daytime highs in the 40s and lows in the
20s. More active weather looks to return during the midweek,
following into the extended forecast of Thanksgiving weekend,
however, deterministic models and their ensemble counterparts still
show their disagreement in the fine scale details. Two shortwaves, a
southern stream trough lifting north from the southern Plains, and a
northern stream trough emanating out of the Rockies take aim at the
Great Lakes Tuesday/Wednesday, phasing and producing a surface low
that brings widespread precip, potentially accumulating snow, to the
region. Despite differences in timing and low strength, this low
then deepens and lifts northeast into eastern Canada, allowing cold
NW flow on the western flank of the trough to return into the Upper
Great Lakes, suggesting potentially impactful lake effect snow may
affect holiday travel. At this timeframe, its too early to tease out
the details, but Thanksgiving travelers should continue to monitor
the forecast as things become clearer over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Abundant low level moisture and transiting rain showers will
continue in this TAF period ahead of a cold front. This front will
progress west to east through the region this evening. Ahead of the
front, LIFR/IFR conditions are expected, where LIFR is most likely
at KCMX in rain showers. Additionally, gusty southwest to westerly
winds near 25 kts are expected ahead of the front at KCMX. After the
front, conditions will gradually improve to VFR at all sites. Gusty
winds at KCMX will persist behind the front, but shift to the
northwest as they increase to 25-30kts by morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

South to southwest winds 15-25 kts continue this afternoon ahead of
a cold front, which is set to press west to east across the lake
tonight. Winds shift west-northwesterly tonight into Friday behind
the passing cold front, gusting to 25-30 kt and maintaining small
craft headlines in the east through Friday afternoon as waves build
to 4-7 ft over the eastern half of the lake. Winds will diminish to
10-15 kt Friday night into Saturday before another weak disturbance
brings the chance for another round of 20-25 kt westerly winds and 2-
4 ft waves later in the weekend.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...BW