372
FXUS63 KMQT 142333
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
733 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid weather through early next week.

- Areas of fog possible again tonight; fog could be dense.

- Cooler air moves back in for the late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The upper level ridge, omega block, continues to get squeezed as it
slowly pushes east, with the axis now extending from the lower
Mississippi Valley to the U.P and into Ontario. The closed low over
the west was starting to open up as it merged with an approaching
trough along the Pacific Northwest. Over the east a trough extended
through eastern Canada down into New England with weak troughing all
the way down into Florida. The ridge was keeping the U.P dry though
ample low level moisture, light winds and favorable radiational
cooling conditions resulted in a foggy start to the day for most
across the U.P. It was warm this afternoon with highs reaching into
the 70s.

The main forecast challenge through tonight will be the possibility
for fog redevelopment. Low level moisture, light winds and radiation
cooling will be conducive for fog development. Expect fog, possibly
dense, to form late tonight into early tomorrow morning. A light
southerly downslope wind could limit fog development in the lower
elevation near Lake Superior, especially in the west.

Through Monday night the upper level ridge will continue to slowly
migrate east as a broader trough develops in the west with multiple
short waves ejecting from the Rockies north through the northern
Plains. Most of the forcing from these systems will stay west of the
U.P continuing the dry weather. Temperatures will remain warm with
highs in the 70s today and 70s to lower 80s Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

The upper level ridge will hold on through Tuesday and begin to
break down as a trough moves through the Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come back
for midweek with the passage of the trough and a cold front. Models
are coming into better agreement that a low will cut off from the
trough as it pushes from the Rockies into the Midwest late this week
and take its time tracking through the Great Lakes through the
weekend. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be 10 to 15 degrees
above average with highs in the 70s and 80s. Cooler weather will
arrive for Thursday through the weekend with highs falling back into
the low to mid 60s, just a bit below average for this time of year.
For Friday through the weekend models keep a majority of the
precipitation south of the U.P through at least a slight chance for
showers is maintained through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

VFR will start off the 0Z TAF period at all sites, but some BR/FG
development is anticipated similar to last night. Confidence in the
intensity, coverage, and timing is still not high given the slightly
higher winds expected tonight and not as much low level moisture
present in the region. IWD only has around a 25% chance of BR
reducing flight categories, so carried the MVFR TEMPO group for the
early morning hours. CMX and SAW are more likely (40-70% chance),
thus continued the IFR/LIFR mentions; CMX may have a brief reprieve
from LIFR or lower conditions near the start of the 6Z TAF period.
Once the morning BR/FG clears out, VFR returns with SE winds around
10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Mainly light winds, less than 20 knots, are expected through mid-
week for most of the lake. However, northeast flow over the far west
will result in winds up to 25 knots through tonight. Expecting fog
to become dense and more widespread again tonight over the far west
where a dense fog advisory has been hoisted. Over the remainder of
the lake there is some indications that developing southeasterly
flow could bring slightly drier air out over the lake and limit the
fog potential. Monday through Wednesday winds will be mainly below
20 knots. Northeast winds to 25 knots are expected for late Thursday
into Friday as the area will be between a strong high pressure
moving south into Quebec and low pressure over the midwest. NBM
continues to maintain low probabilities for for gales, 25%, for the
late week period.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Monday for
     LSZ162.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...Jablonski
MARINE...NL