672
FXUS63 KMQT 161933
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
233 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy today, especially along the Keweenaw and near Lake
Superior. Northwest gales to around 35 knots are expected over
central/eastern Lake Superior into tonight.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Luce County
through Monday morning. An additional 1-3 inches of snow is
expected, heaviest tonight. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates in
conjunction with gusty winds could make travel difficult along the M-
28 corridor for end-of-weekend travel and for the Monday morning
commute.

- High pressure brings quieter weather for most of this week with
highs above freezing and lows below freezing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Afternoon RAP analysis shows deep low pressure over the Gulf of
Maine, with sprawling surface high pressure over the Plains. In
between, the Great Lakes remains under chilly NW flow with 850mb
temperatures at around -8 to -10C. Surface temperatures over
Superior hover at around 7-8C, resulting in delta-T certainly steep
enough to keep the lake effect going in the NW wind snow belts.
However, we`re combating dry midlevel air over the region (as
evidenced both in water vapor imagery and in observed and model
soundings), so lake effect continues mostly over the far eastern
portions of the UP given a longer fetch over the water. Even then,
soundings remain quite dry, with just a few thousand feet of
moisture within an elevated DGZ, very dry air just above it, and an
inverted-V below the DGZ. Satellite and radar are showing LES over
Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce counties turning more cellular compared
to the one or two dominant banding structures favored by much of the
hi-res guidance. Perhaps this is due to the aforementioned dry air,
or gusty winds and more breaks in the clouds lending some turbulence
and somewhat better destabilization. With that, light snow totals
below an inch are expected across our eastern zones the rest of the
daytime hours.

As we head into tonight, guidance still hangs onto the potential for
a couple of more dominant bands to extend into the eastern UP,
perhaps with some Lake Nipigon connection. HREF also continues to
indicate around a 20-30% chance for snowfall rates in excess of
1in/hr in Luce county late tonight into the early hours of Monday.
Though additional snow totals across the eastern UP are only
expected to top out in the 1-3in range, will hold onto the Winter
Weather Advisory in Luce county given the potential for some travel
impacts into early Monday morning. Lake effect snow then is expected
to diminish throughout the day Monday as dry air intrudes and
ridging aloft/surface high pressure encroaches on the UP. Additional
light snow accumulations below an inch will be possible in the
eastern UP.

Meanwhile, we continue to watch lake clouds erode across the western
half of the UP with the dry airmass working in. Temperatures are
rising into the mid 30s across most of the UP, but where skies are
clearing, it wouldn`t be a surprise to see some spots climb into the
upper 30s under our weak November sun. Winds remain gusty as well,
with 25-30mph gusts common especially across the eastern UP.
Stronger gusts up to 40mph will be possible nearer to the Superior
shoreline. Expect winds to gradually diminish overnight, though some
20-25mph gusts will still be possible over the Keweenaw and the
shorelines into early Monday. As skies clear and winds in the
interior UP turn lighter, temperatures may be able to turn rather
chilly, bottoming out in the lower/mid 20s while to the east
temperatures peak in the upper 20s to near 30. After rebounding into
the 30s to near 40F Monday afternoon, temperatures turn even colder
Monday night. Expect lows in the 20s for most, and possible into the
teens in the interior-central UP.

For Tuesday, the closed low currently over Nevada is expected to
progress through the Plains and eventually the Lower Midwest. This
will be too far south for much, if any impacts across the UP, with
just a slight chance for some rain/snow showers to graze our WI
border zones. Uncontested ridging then takes hold, giving quiet
weather for the Wednesday period. For the Thursday-Friday timeframe,
models begin to diverge as they try and get a handle on a trough
that is currently just off the Pacific NW. Latest deterministic
guidance favors, in some form, the trough splitting into a closed
Four Corners low and a Canada/US border-riding shortwave that may or
may not eventually phase, or for a more simple textbook Colorado Low-
type setup. Ensemble members also show quite a bit of spread.
Additionally, shortwaves in the vicinity of the Hudson Bay could
further complicate the forecast. Therefore, confidence in the
details of the forecast into next weekend is low. For now, highly
impactful weather is not expected outside of an ensemble outlier or
two, though given the sheer number of potential features, a wetter
pattern is expected around that period. For this week, expect highs
above freezing (mid 30s to low 40s), and lows below freezing (20s to
low 30s).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR prevails during the 18Z TAF period as lake effect clouds scatter
out at the sites and all measurable precip remains well to the east;
flurries at times may be seen at SAW. The main concern will be
elevated northwest winds 10-15 kts into this evening. While left out
of the TAFs, IWD/SAW may observe stray gusts to 20 kts yet this
afternoon (25% chance). Gusts at CMX start around 30 kts, gradually
lowering into tonight. Lighter 5-15 kt northwest winds are expected
tonight through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 448 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Northwesterly gales continue across eastern Lake Superior this
morning as cold air aloft brings down gusts to 35-40 kt down to the
surface. Long duration winds along the long NW/SE fetch of Lake
Superior will support significant wave heights of 12-14 ft from
Caribou Island to Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore, with waves
across the central lake around 10 ft and around 4 ft in the west.
Winds will fall below gales tonight, below 25 kt Monday morning, and
below 20 kt Monday evening. Waves will similarly fall with time,
with waves falling below 8 ft Monday morning and below 4 ft by late
Monday night. With high pressure expected for much of the next week,
winds look to remain below 20 kt. Late in the week into the weekend,
a complex weather setup may support a low pressure passing through
the Great Lakes. Confidence is low in the details, but there is a 10-
20% chance that a low pressure feature could be accompanied by gale-
force gusts.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ007.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ249>251-266-
     267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC