Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
794 FXUS64 KMRX 271138 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 638 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 634 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Dry and colder through Saturday. - Rain returns by Sunday, with active/rainy weather continuing into the first part of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 Cold and dry weather is expected through Saturday as high pressure brings Canadian air into the Southeast. The deep trough over the Eastern U.S. will start to move out on Friday. Temps will be much colder today through the weekend. Friday will be the coldest day with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s for much of the Valley. Dry weather will continue on Saturday with nearly zonal flow aloft. Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday as a low moves through the Great Lakes bringing a cold front through the region Sunday night. The bulk of the energy with the shortwave will be to the north in the Ohio Valley. Mostly rain is expected with this system but with cold temps in place some mixed precip or light snow is possible at onset in the higher elevations and northern areas. Strong winds are possible again in the East Tennessee Mountains and foothills Saturday night ahead of this system with a wind direction favorable for downslope. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the mountains with a low level jet moving into the region bringing 850 mb winds around 40 knots. NBM has low precip chances Monday through Tuesday night. It looks to me like the best chance for precip will be Monday night into Tuesday as a low moves either along the Gulf Coast or through the Southeast. Ensemble probabilities are low for snow accumulation but we will definitely have to monitor the track and strength of this system since we will have cold air still in place early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR conditions prevail for the TAF cycle. Mid-level clouds and west to northwest winds around 10 knots can be expected through the afternoon. Occasional gusts around 20kts possible at TRI/TYS. Skies clear out with winds becoming less than 10 knots later this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 49 28 46 26 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 45 24 42 23 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 45 23 42 22 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 42 21 37 19 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...99