427
FXUS64 KMRX 161747
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1247 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Dry and breezy conditions are expected today with a Fire Danger
  Statement for all of East Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
  Monday will have lighter winds but even lower relative humidity
  values.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday and
  Wednesday with chances for showers and possibly a few storms
  Tuesday, especially north of Interstate 40.

- Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the period
  with widespread rain likely Friday evening to Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Currently this afternoon, troughing is centered to our northeast
with a front pushing south of the area. High pressure centered near
Iowa continues to expand from the northwest. Despite light morning
rain, this setup has brought fire weather back into focus with
breezy conditions being caused by the strong MSLP gradient and 850mb
flow near 30 kts in northeastern portions of the area. When combined
with increasing subsidence and deep mixing, RH values are expected
to drop well into the 20s area-wide with a Fire Danger Statement
expanded to include all of East Tennessee. Tonight into Monday
morning, the surface high will become centered just north of our
area. This will create even more ideal subsidence conditions with
RH`s likely to drop to 20 percent or less. But, the weaker MSLP
gradient and 850mb flow will limit winds. On Tuesday, a weak
shortwave will track to our northwest with surface high pressure
receding to our east. This will provide a return of rain chances,
mainly in northern portions of the area. Based on the latest
guidance, mid-level lapse rates reach around 6 C/km with elevated
instability sufficient for embedded convection.

By Wednesday, the shortwave will lift well to our northeast with
broad ridging taking shape across much of the eastern U.S. High
pressure to the northeast will also enhance southerly flow and pull
the frontal boundary back northward, producing broad WAA with
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. On Thursday, a
negatively-tilted shortwave will eject out of the Rockies with a
deepening surface low expected to track towards the Great Lakes
Friday to Saturday. This will lead to a return of rain chances,
especially Friday evening to Saturday. There are still uncertainties
with how the system will evolve, but it will likely bring
instability and moisture sufficient for convection. However,
anything more organized looks to stay south and west of our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Mostly clear aviation conditions are expected to continue with the
main impact being strong northwesterly winds. Gusts to 20 to 25 kts
are likely with TRI having the strongest winds. These surface winds
will subside after sunset with 25 kt winds 2,000 feet above TRI
continuing but not quite to LLWS criteria. On Monday, mostly clear
conditions will continue with lighter winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  62  41  72 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  35  58  38  68 /   0   0   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       34  58  38  65 /   0   0  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              30  54  34  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW