Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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684
FXUS64 KMRX 171701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
101 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Warm and dry conditions will continue Saturday ahead of an
  approaching system.

- Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, showers and a few
  storms are likely across the region. The threat for severe
  storms remains low. Also, breezy conditions are likely,
  especially across the mountains.

- Drier and cooler conditions return by Monday with little to no
  rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

High pressure and ridging across the region will result in
continued warm, dry conditions on Saturday. Southwest flow begins
to increase in advance of an approach trough across the
Mississippi Valley by Saturday night. With a pressure gradient and
SSW/SW LLJ around 50 kt, strong winds are expected across the
mountains. Lower-end mountain wave winds are possible, but this
does not appear to be a strong mountain wave wind event at this
time.

As the trough shifts eastward Sunday morning, a surface cold front
will move eastward across the region with widespread
precipitation. As stronger jet streak dynamics supporting ascent
shift to our north, precipitation along the frontal boundary is
expected to decrease in coverage and intensity as it moves into
our region Sunday morning. This will also expected to be the
diurnal minimum for instability during the day, so severe weather
and overall thunder chances remain low. While most should see
rainfall with this system, overall amounts are expected to be low
and generally less than one-half inch with localized amounts up to
one inch, especially west of Interstate 75.

Behind the cold front, high pressure builds across the region with
drier and cooler air arriving early next week. Another quick
moving cold front will move across the region on Tuesday night,
but limited moisture should keep us dry with measurable
precipitation not expected. Otherwise, temperatures remain near
normal for most of next week with chances for frost across the
higher elevations and northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions and light winds prevail at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  84  64  71 /   0  10  70  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  56  83  63  70 /  10  10  50  80
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  82  61  67 /  10  10  60  90
Tri Cities Airport, TN              47  79  59  70 /   0  10  20  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB