Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
013 FXUS64 KMRX 022335 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 735 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 733 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 - Dry weather can be expected through the weekend. Rain chances return next week. - Temperatures will hover near normal or just above normal through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 112 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 After looking at the latest data, no changes were needed during the morning forecast update. We will remain under the influence of high pressure that will continue to enforce a cooler and drier airmass over the area with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds today. The previous forecast remains on track. A dome of high pressure currently sits over Quebec, expected to sink further south with time. Meanwhile, what was once amplified ridging overhead, will broaden across much of the country. We will sit under this influence of broadened ridging and surface high pressure that will eventually center over the Mid-Atlantic region. A developing trough will deepen and move eastward, compressing the ridge and potentially change our weather pattern next week. Today will be notably cooler than yesterday, with valley highs remaining in the lower 80s instead of the mid to upper 80s. It will also feel a bit drier out too. Temperatures will continue the "cooler" trend or what`s normal for October, as well as drier air settling in for at least part of the weekend, before moisture return. With that said, expect quiet and calm conditions weather- wise through early Sunday or so. Sunday into Monday time frame, a Gulf Coast frontal boundary may try to send moisture northward towards our area, returning the chance for precipitation. The aforementioned trough will march across the country with a developing cold front that may impact the area around the end of the forecast period or the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025 The question for this forecast period is fog potential at TRI. Some guidance takes vis down to 1/4SM, and based on afternoon dwepoints and forecast low temps, this seems reasonable. However, we expect to see falling dewpoints overnight as high pressure east of the Appalachians build southward and drier air moves into NE TN. With at least a 50% chance of fog, will mention LIFR conditions in a TEMPO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...HUN AVIATION...DGS