487
FXUS64 KMRX 151817
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Winds will be gusting to 30 mph during the PM hours in the
  valley, westerly wind gusts near 45 mph in the mountains
  Tonight. Windy Advisory is in effect for the far east Tennessee
  mountains for this evening and tonight.

- Light rain showers Tonight and early Sunday morning, primarily
  for northern TN into VA and the mountains.

- Drier and slightly cooler conditions arrive later on Sunday into
  Monday. Dewpoints dropping into the upper teens and 20s will
  produce low afternoon relative humdity.

- Two potential rounds of rain later into next week with the
  greatest chance of significant rainfall for Friday and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Currently, a good deal of cloudiness across the area will diminish
in coverage late this afternoon and evening.

An upper trough and fairly deep surface low will move from the
Great Lakes to the northeast United States overnight and Sunday
morning. Associated frontal boundary will move across the region
by early/mid morning Sunday.

Latest HREF/REFS/and determinstic models show a strong 850mb
westerly jet of 40-50 knots moving across Tennessee and southwest
Virginia. The higher elevations, generally above 3kft, of
southwest Virginia and far east Tennessee mountains will likely
experience advisory criteria. REFS probabilities of 40 mph or
greater is highlighting the far east Tennessee mountains.

As the frontal boundary moves through early Sunday morning
scattered showers with light rain will move across the northern
sections of Tennessee, Plateau, southwest Virginia, and far east
Tennessee mountains. Forecast soundings depict a faily shallow
moisture layer so rainfall amounts will be light at best.

Vertical profile and surface dewpoints dry out quickly Sunday with
clearing sky and low afternoon relative humidity. RH values
dropping into the upper 20s to 30s.

For Monday, surface ridging and dry airmass. REFS show high
probabilities of afternoon relative humidity dropping into the
20s. Wildfire danger concerns.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, a quick moving short-wave and jet
dynamics will move across the Ohio valley with increasing 850mb
jet producing some isentropic lift and chance of showers
especially along and north of interstate 40.

For the latter half of the week into next Saturday, an upper
trough and energy injecting from the southwest United States
toward the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will increasing the chance
of showers. The ensemble cluster analysis shows varying solutions
so confidence is quite low on how this system evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Main concern during the forecast period will be developing strong
850mb westerly jet of 40-50kts this evening and overnight. LLWS
conditions are expected at TRI and possible at TYS and CHA
overnight. Sustain westerly winds of 12-15kts with gusts in excess
of 25kts expected this afternoon through the overnight period at
all TAF sites.

VFR conditions will become marginal MVFR at times at TRI and TYS
early Sunday morning as a frontal boundary and scattered showers
move across the area. Ceiling will drop to 2500 feet at times with
visibility restrictions from showers.

VFR conditions and continued breezy northwest winds anticipated
by late Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             60  70  39  62 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  65  35  58 /  40  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  65  34  58 /  40  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  60  30  53 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-
     Northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH