649
FXUS64 KMRX 070536
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

- Beneficial rainfall likely as the day progresses through the
  overnight hours.

- Mild fall temperatures and dry weather to dominate from Thursday
  onwards through this weekend. A slight warming trend Sunday into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

The headline feature of the week is the cold front that will sweep
across the Eastern US today into Wednesday. Locally the heaviest
rainfall will exist across the Cumberland Plateau north to locations
bordering Kentucky. Outside of an elevated thunderstorm, only light
amounts of precipitation are expected in far southeastern Tennessee
into North Carolina. Overall QPF, especially with the latest 00z CAM
suite in, doesn`t look concerning, especially with the nice dry
spells we`ve been having between bouts of rain the last few weeks.
Main FROPA is Wednesday morning, with the last gasp of the bulk of
the rain and maybe a few thunderstorms in the overnight hours
tonight. Could see a few sprinkles or light showers hanging on after
sunrise on Wednesday, sounding profiles have a saturated low level
atmosphere under a midlevel inversion, with decent CAPE profiles.
Otherwise it`ll be pretty cloudy to start the day, before clearing
skies progress in the PM hours.

The other benefit of the cold front will be the high pressure moving
in on the backside accompanied by drier air. Classic physics based
and AI guidance both keep Thursday onwards through the weekend as
near or completely dry. Temperatures will sink a little cooler, but
nothing drastic, just enough to float near or slightly below
longtime averages again. Might even see a few sub-40 degree
temperatures Friday morning around Abingdon to Wise VA areas.

Sunday a coastal low should be on the Eastern Seaboard, ensemble
consensus keeps us dry during that period with high pressure still
sneaking down into Tennessee, but just something to keep an eye on
as moisture availability may be on the increase by next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Will see some showers, especially late in the period, and a few
rumbles of thunder will be possible mainly CHA and perhaps TYS as
well late in the period. Will see VFR conditions much of the
period, but MVFR conditions likely to occur with showers at CHA,
and then a trend toward more prevailing MVFR late in the period
at CHA and TYS as showers increase frequency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  68  80  59 /  40  80  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  67  75  55 /  30  90  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  65  75  53 /  60  90  20  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              80  64  71  49 /  30  90  40   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99