729
FXUS66 KMTR 180027
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
427 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

 - Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will
   gradually decrease through Monday night before drier weather
   returns Tuesday.

 - Next system brings more beneficial type rain late Wednesday
   through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Isolated to scattered rain showers persist over the region this
afternoon with thunderstorms showing up to our east. A surface low
pressure is currently positioned over the North Bay with a mid/upper
level aloft. This will result in increased instability with surface
based and most unstable CAPE forecast to be up to 500 J/kg through
the afternoon. Any heavier rain showers and/or thunderstorms will be
capable of producing 0.25"-0.50" of rainfall per hour, yet these
rates will be isolated in nature. Conditions begin to dry out by
late tonight and more so into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will generally be in the low-to-upper 40s across the
coldest spots across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s along
the San Francisco Bay Shoreline and the City of San Francisco.

This drying trend will occur as the aforementioned surface and
mid/upper level lows shift southward through the day on Tuesday. A
short-wave ridge will build across the Bay Area and Central Coast
through Tuesday with temperatures warming to near normal across the
Bay Area and North Bay while up to 10 degrees cooler than normal
across the Central Coast. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected
beyond the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1242 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Light to occasionally moderate rain returns late Wednesday night
across the North Bay and then increase in coverage and intensity
through Thursday early afternoon across of the remainder of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This system is forecast to move through
rather quickly producing 0.50"-1.00" in the coastal ranges and
higher elevations across the region, 0.25"-0.33" in the North Bay
Valleys and around San Francisco, and generally less than 0.25"
elsewhere. However, as things become increasingly saturated, the
risk for shallow land/rock/mud slides will also increase.

Friday through the rest of the upcoming weekend look to be dry with
temperatures rebounding closer to seasonal averages. This is
captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center
showing conditions leaning below normal for precipitation and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 426 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

Currently a mixed bag of MVFR-VFR at the terminals with rain showers
churning around the surface low. High-end MVFR/low-end VFR with rain
showers in the vicinity can be expected through the night. Order is
restored tomorrow in the form of dry conditions and diurnal wind
patterns.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. Low-end VFR/high-
end MVFR with westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will
prevail through the night. Winds will veer to become northerly until
the afternoon sea breeze kicks in.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southerly flow at MRY
and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Low-end VFR/high-end MVFR with
westerly flow and rain showers in the vicinity will prevail through
the night. Conditions improve by mid-morning with the sea breeze
returning in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

Scattered shower and storm chances last into the night with
shifting winds as a low pressure center moves southward along the
coast. Winds will continue to shift and increase to a strong NW
breeze through the day, building rough seas across the coastal
waters. Breezy winds and rough seas will persist through Tuesday
before conditions improve for a short window Wednesday through
Thursday. A high WNW swell will arrive late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Murdock

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