016
FXUS66 KMTR 022152
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
152 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Gusty offshore winds still slated for late tonight through
   Wednesday morning. Generally 25-35 mph with isolated gusts to
   45 mph along higher terrain in eastern Napa county.

 - No major fire weather concerns as fuel retain good moisture
   after early November rains.

 - Dry and quiet weather persists through the weekend into early
   next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

I would like to formally welcome the sun back to Santa Rosa. What
a long, strange Tule it`s been.

Anyways, down to brass tacks. Beautiful weather today thanks to
weak offshore flow and drier air in place compared to the last
several days. This trend continues through midweek, and we`re
still looking at a stronger push of offshore flow overnight
tonight. Timing remains the same with offshore pressure gradient
peaking around mid-morning, so our strongest winds are still
expected before 10 AM, but breezy conditions will likely last into
the afternoon. Only notable change with this forecast update is a
slight decrease in the magnitude of winds. Best forecast
probability now depicts only a 30% chance of winds greater than 45
mph along the Mayacamas. For other lower elevations of Napa county
and the interior East Bay there is a 50-70% chance of winds 30 mph
or greater. Wrapping up probabilities, there is about a 60%
chance of winds greater than 20 mph nearly across the board for
the Bay Area and North Bay. We will see some notable drying with
this event as daytime RH dips into the 30-40% range, but given
non-critical wind/RH and moist fuels from the rain earlier this
month, we do not have any major fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Quiet weather is restored again after the offshore winds on
Wednesday. A boring pattern ensues once again into the weekend as
a very resilient, some say "ridiculously resilient", ridge builds
over the West Coast. There is high confidence in dry weather and
above average temperatures through at least the early half of next
week. Looking at longer term trends, there is a good chance that
the West Coast will enter a more stormy pattern by the middle of
the month, but there is high uncertainty in where exactly those
storms would impact in latitude.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

It`s a great day for VFR pilots to get up! Outside of some
lingering patchy morning fog spilling over from the Central
Valley, clear skies will dominate today. Winds will be gentle and
shift from offshore to onshore in the afternoon. The synoptic pattern
becomes drier through the TAF period. Strong high pressure is
building over northern Nevada while coastal CA troughing
strengthens. This offshore, high-to-low pressure gradient will
bring dry offshore flow that will discourage any low level
clouds. This dry air should also mix down to limit radiation fog
Wednesday morning. Although even with low dew points that`s not a
guarantee with enhanced surface cooling under clear skies and long
December nights.

Vicinity of SFO...Guaranteed VFR conditions through the day. The
biggest question mark is when exactly surface winds will shift
from offshore to onshore and back. The TAF currently has onshore
winds driven by the sea breeze from 23Z to 10Z, but with weak
forcing, there is a lot of wiggle room there.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions across the region today.
Winds will remain light and variable at MRY. SNS will have
moderate drainage flow continue through the early afternoon before
a weak sea breeze should flip the wind direction. There is a
better chance for ceilings to form at MRY and SNS overnight as
the offshore wind is focused further north and a weak marine
layer may have a brief chance to develop there.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 928 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

Persistent high pressure over the Eastern Pacific will cause the
moderate to strong northerly breeze to continue through the week.
Rough sea heights will subside by Thursday as westerly swell
abates.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 534 AM PST Tuesday Dec 2 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for the coastline
from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Wednesday
evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20
minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Some of the
favored break points may exceed 20 feet at times. Forerunners
will be 18+ seconds with heights of 2-5 feet into tonight
resulting in the greatest risk for sneaker waves. This combined
with high astronomical tides in the morning hours will increase
the aforementioned risk. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

RGass

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-
     529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Wednesday for SF Bay
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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