962
FXUS66 KMTR 210833
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1233 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025

 - Drier conditions beginning today through midweek

 - Temperatures remain near or slightly above seasonal averages

 - Next chance for rain arrives the day after Thanksgiving

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025
(Today and tonight)

Radar returns continue to show isolated showers lingering across
interior San Benito County as an upper level low exits to our
south. Those showers should continue to diminish through the rest
of the night and dissipate entirely by sunrise today, which will
be drier and clearer than the last couple of days. The morning
should dawn clear and bright across the Bay Area, with lingering
clouds and potentially fog over the South Bay and Central Coast
dissipating before the afternoon. High temperatures today reach
the upper 50s to middle 60s in the lower elevations, barring the
North Bay valleys where highs reach the upper 60s, while the
higher elevations drop into the lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

The exiting upper level low will allow a ridging pattern to settle
in across the western United States, ushering in a drier pattern
that should persist into the middle of next week and the
Thanksgiving holiday. A shallow marine layer should redevelop on
Saturday, but weak easterly flow aloft will keep marine layer
stratus from coming inland. High temperatures continue to hover
in the upper 50s to middle 60s for the lower elevations through
the middle of the week, near or up to 5 degrees above the seasonal
average for this time of year.

The next chance for rain arrives towards the end of next week,
particularly the day after Thanksgiving into the following weekend.
Ensemble member cluster analysis hints at an upper level trough
developing off the West Coast and bringing rain chances to the
state. As of now, the ensemble members are split roughly 50-50
between those showing a more pronounced trough over the West Coast
and those that show more zonal flow or possibly even a ridge over
the region. The CPC`s 6-10 day outlook shows a lean to precipitation
totals near the seasonal average for a period from the 26th to the
30th. For context, looking at the historical averages, around half
an inch of rain would fall in downtown San Francisco during this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 932 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

It`s VFR-MVFR with lingering showers tonight otherwise expect
patchy fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing late tonight and Friday morning.
Patchy morning fog will mix out by late Friday morning otherwise
VFR.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming
north-northeast 5 knots early Friday then shifting to northwest 10
knots Friday afternoon and early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. A few lingering showers through the
evening otherwise dry tonight and Friday. West to northwest winds
5 to 10 knots decreasing to light and variable winds tonight and
Friday morning. Westerly winds 5 to 10 knots Friday afternoon and
early evening then light southeasterly Friday night and early
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 924 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Hazardous marine conditions continue through the weekend as winds
and swells build. Moderate to strong winds continue to build with
strong to near gale force gusts. Winds diminish early Friday with
moderate northerly winds expected into next week. Seas are
building to 10 to 15 feet and remain elevated into early next
week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the arrival of two
distinct rounds of long period northwesterly swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 327 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A
long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk
for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18
feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

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