868
FXUS66 KMTR 110442
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
842 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Warm and dry conditions through Tuesday

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through Thursday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 841 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Another warm day on the books for the Bay Area and Central Coast.
Inland locations were running several degrees above normal with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Bay Area. Temperatures were
even warmer across the interior Central Coast where interior highs
peaked in the mid 80s to low 90s. Notably King City peaked at 91F
which is just one degree short of the record for November 10th of
92F. One more day of warm, dry weather is in store for the region
with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s on Tuesday. This will
be the last dry day before a weak to moderate atmospheric river
moves in late Wednesday. This system will bring moderate rain
between 1-1.5" across the lower elevations and 2-3" across the
higher elevations. The more significant impacts from this system
will be widespread strong winds with gusts between 35 to 50 mph
possible. Locally stronger gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible
along the coast, mountain peaks, and mountain gaps and passes.
Tuesday is the time to secure any outdoor objects so they do not
blow away when this system reaches us.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Another warm and dry day is forecast as afternoon temperatures reach
the low-to-mid 80s across the interior and approach (may exceed) 90
degrees F across typically hotter spots across interior Central
Coast. Elsewhere, expecting upper 70s to low 80s away from the
immediate coast where mid-to-upper 60s are likely. The ridge axis
will shift eastward in the next 24 hours ahead of an approaching
trough.

High cloud cover will become more widespread tonight and is likely
to limit the amount of cooling overnight. Thus, much of the region
tonight into Tuesday morning will cool into the 50s, potentially the
upper 40s in the wind sheltered valleys. There remains weak offshore
flow in the higher elevations where temperatures are forecast to
cool into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Low clouds are also forecast to
return to coastal areas and into the Salinas Valley.

Tuesday will begin the cool down, some 2 to 7 degrees as onshore
flow becomes more widespread. However, these temperatures are still
5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. Again, passing high level
clouds will persist through much of the day along with mid level
clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 223 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is when we are expecting
light to moderate rain to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay
Area and Central Coast. This will be the result of orographic lift
as the atmospheric river approaches and southerly winds begin to
increase. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity throughout
the day and especially so into Wednesday night. Ahead of the front,
southerly winds will increase with gusts to 35 to 45 mph with
stronger gusts along the coast and at the higher elevations
(potentially in excess of 60 mph), especially through favored gaps
and passes. The stronger gusts will be just ahead of the frontal
passage between 10 PM Wednesday and 10 AM Thursday. There will be
some instability ahead of and in wake of the frontal passage with
surface based CAPE reaching between 100-300 J/kg by Thursday late
morning and into the early afternoon.

Isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible throughout the remainder of the day on Thursday
before tapering off by Friday morning. From 4 AM Wednesday through 4
AM Friday, the regions coastal ranges can expect the see 2-3" of
rainfall, 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and the
North Bay, 1-1.5" in the City of San Francisco, and generally less
than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay region.
There is the potential for less rainfall within the typically rain
shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less rainfall).

Saturday looks to be mostly dry as a weak shortwave ridge builds in
across the region. A troughing pattern returns by Sunday and into
the next week. This is captured by the 6-10 Day Outlooks indicating
precipitation leaning toward above average and temperatures leaning
below average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 352 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR with ample high clouds, light to moderate winds, and a bank of
clouds lurking along the Central Coast. 20-30% chc for visby less
than 1 mile for STS late tonight and added a tempo for that. KHAF
will flirt with MVFR to VFR because of haze and mist.

Vicinity of SFO...Light winds with a NW push during the evening
rush. Didn`t happen last evening, but will keep it in for this
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...VFR.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. 30-40% chc of clouds along the coast
sneaking into SNS overnight. If it does happens, cigs will be low.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 841 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

Northerly flow will prevail over the coastal water tonight with a
moderate northwest swell. Winds remain light to moderate on
Tuesday before switching more southerly. A potent storm system
will arrive Wednesday into Thursday bringing rain, chance of
thunderstorms, and very strong winds. These winds, combined with
a building NW swell, will generate hazardous seas across the
waters. Winds are expected to decrease Friday, but the larger
swell continues to build with seas up to 15 feet before
diminishing through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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