


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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737 FXUS66 KMTR 180008 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 508 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 - Warming and drying trend this weekend with light, offshore winds in the higher elevations through early next week. - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents to the coastline tonight through Saturday night. - Weak cooling trend next week with unsettled weather potentially returning late week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 (This evening through Saturday) With the exception of some patchy clouds along the coastline, satellite shows clear skies across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Clear skies are expected to continue through the overnight hours with a low potential for fog development tonight. Current thinking is that light, offshore (east to northeast) winds overnight will bring enough drier and warmer air into the interior to prevent fog from developing. That being said, there is the potential for localized pockets of fog to develop across the interior North Bay Valleys (particularly within Sonoma County). Early morning commuters should be prepared for drops in visibility and to slow down if they encounter any localized pockets of fog. High temperatures will warm approximately 2-4 degrees on Saturday as the upper level pattern splits into weak ridging and a cut-off low. Upper level ridging will strengthen over California tonight into tomorrow while a cut-off low develops off the coast of far southern California. By Saturday, upper level ridging will be the predominant driving factor for our weather and will be the reason temperatures warm by a few degrees. Most interior locations will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, coastal areas will be in the 60s to 70s, and far interior Central Coast will be in the low to mid 80s. For coastal areas, high temperatures on Saturday will be seasonal to slightly warmer than normal while interior areas are running on average 5 (but up to 10 in spots) degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. If you have felt a bit chilly the last few mornings this warmup will help with that. Morning lows today (Friday) were in the 40s to low 50s and are forecast to be in the 50s on Saturday. As a reminder, a Beach Hazards Statement goes into effect at 8 PM this evening and will remain in effect through Saturday evening due to an elevated risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. Sneaker waves are defined as waves that run significantly further up the beach than normal and can result in unprepared beachgoers from being swept off the beach. Remember - never turn your back on the ocean and take && .LONG TERM... Issued at 146 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Warmer and drier weather continues through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the Western United States. High temperatures will remain seasonal to a few degrees above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior and 60s to low 70s along the coastline. Temperatures start to cool Tuesday as the cut-off low to our southwest moves inland into Southern California. This system will not have any major impacts for our area except to lower temperatures across the region into the 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. Weak offshore flow is expected to continue across the interior into early next week which will keep conditions drier across the interior mountain ranges. Impacts to fire weather concerns are minimal given recent wetting rains and high fuel moistures across the region. Looking farther out, the CPC is continuing to advertise a potentially significant Atmospheric River impacting the West Coast 10/25-10/27. The major changes since the overnight update was to expand the high risk of heavy precipitation into the North Bay and a moderate risk of heavy precipitation into the the rest of the Bay Area and majority of the Central Coast. The CPC is additionally highlighting a moderate risk of high winds for the North Bay and a slight risk of high winds for the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast with this system. This system is still over a week out so the exact system of the track and QPF totals are likely to fluctuate as we get closer. Residents should stay up to date on the forecast as this system approaches in order to have the most accurate information as to what weather to expect. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR through the TAF Period. Expect moderate winds to turn light into the evening and stay light through the night. LVK and SNS will see some easterly winds into the mid morning but become light and variable for LVK while SNS turns more northwesterly for the afternoon. Expect mostly light to moderate winds for Saturday. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate winds linger into the late evening before becoming light and variable through the night and much of Saturday. Expect moderate west winds to return in the late afternoon on Saturday, but reduce into that late evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect winds to reduce through the evening becoming light and variable for the night. Southeast winds affect SNS in the mid morning but these winds turn northwesterly for the afternoon as MRY`s winds turn westerly. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 507 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Breezy to strong northwest gusts will are expected for the northern outer waters into the late night. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15 seconds. Northerly winds should become fresh to strong late Sunday into Monday, with near gale force gusts expected for the outer waters north of Point Pinos. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1249 AM PDT Fri Oct 17 2025 A long-period northwesterly swell with periods of around 15 to 17 seconds is approaching the coast through the day and will begin impacting the coastal waters tonight. The long-period swell increases the risk of sneaker waves and rip currents across the Pacific coast, potentially catching unaware swimmers off-guard. Never turn your back to the ocean! Swim near a lifeguard if possible! If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore until you escape its influence. DialH && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea