426
FXUS66 KMTR 191844
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

 - Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers
   being possible.

 - More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday.

 - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

No significant morning updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Today and tonight)

Cloudy and cool to start the day around the Bay Area and Central.
Today will be a transition day weather wise as one storm system
exits SoCal and another storm system approaches from the
northwest. Initially the region will be in a squeeze play with
shortwave ridging overhead. Despite some ridging overhead, areas
that are starting off cloudy have a high likelihood of remaining
cloud through the afternoon. Through the afternoon the upstream
storm system will inch its way closer to the coast. The associated
cold front will also inch closer.

Latest forecast timing brings some pre-cold frontal showers to the
North Bay just in time for the evening commute. The leading edge
of precip will be warm sector scout showers. The main moisture
push is still expected later tonight and early Thursday. Expect a
rather wet overnight period as the fropa begins. The fropa will
bring a brief period of moderate to locally heavy rain. Not
expecting any rates to be high enough to cause issues on the
Pickett Burn Area. Unlike the last system as the front slides S
through the forecast area rainfall intensity will diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 314 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025
(Thursday through Tuesday)

Wet start to the day Thursday as the aforementioned cold front is
traversing the forecast area. Biggest impacts will be to the
Thursday AM commute. Minor ponding and a lower chance for
nuisance urban flooding. By late Thursday afternoon precip will
taper off from N to S behind the departing front. While there are
some high PWATs associated with the fropa AR guidance doesn`t
appear to be high enough to be an AR. Overall, still looking like
more beneficial rain than hazardous. Amounts are still roughly
the same a tenth or two most areas and up to a half inch N Bay Mts
and coastal mts. Weak instability will be present with the fropa,
but current thinking is any thunder chances will be less than 15
percent so no thunder is in the forecast.

Outside of precip, the front will bring an uptick in winds, but no
where near the wind conditions with the last two systems. Gusts
of 30-40 mph will occur along the coast and higher terrain.

Drier conditions develop by early Friday. Dry and warm develop
lasting into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Cloud cover lifts to VFR-levels into the afternoon but mid-level
clouds remain overcast through the day. Expect light to moderate
winds through the afternoon and evening. Winds lighten and turn more
southerly into the night wind MVFR CIGS building ahead of a weak
cold front. Showers arrive in the late night along the front and
spread south and east through the morning. Visibilities will be
slightly affected by the rainfall. Expect light scattered showers in
the wake of the front with winds turning more westerly into the mid
to late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Mid-level clouds scatter and rebuild around SFO
through much of the day with southeast winds turning more southwest
into the mid afternoon. These winds turn more southerly as the front
arrives with light to moderate showers. Winds turn to the northwest
behind the front with some lingering shower activity. CIGs erode as
the last few showers exit into late Thursday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Mid-level clouds build through the day.
Light winds turn more moderate and westerly in the mid afternoon and
last into the evening before becoming light southeasterly. Expect
light rain and MVFR CIGs into early Thursday as the front arrives.
Wind turn northwesterly as the front exits, and shower activity
becomes spottier.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1044 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

Conditions improve across the marine environment today with winds
diminishing and seas abating. Improvements will only be temporary
with hazardous marine conditions returning late Wednesday as a
weak  storm system moves through the coastal waters. Rain is
expected  overnight Wednesday into Thursday with thunderstorms not
anticipated. This system will bring a return of moderate winds
with  strong gusts Wednesday night through Friday before winds
abate  heading into the weekend. Seas build to between 10 to 15
feet  Thursday remain elevated into early next week. Elevate seas
will be  prolonged by the arrival of two distinct rounds of long
period, very  high northwesterly swell.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday afternoon through Monday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 9 AM PST Friday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Friday
     for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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