963
FXUS66 KMTR 092057
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1257 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1256 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - Tule fog and stratus return tonight for Bay Area valleys.

 - Quiet weather continues, with high temperatures increasing
   through Friday.

 - Light rain remains possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1256 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

Another day of watching the stratus slowly erode across the Bay
area. The North Bay Valleys seem to be on track to erode by mid to
late afternoon, which should keep high temperatures fairly chilly up
there. It`s been fun, yet challenging and humbling experience to try
and nail the stratus erosion timing and high temperature forecast.
This will continue to be the trend into Wednesday, though hopefully
we get a little more compression from the high pressure system and
perhaps slightly stronger offshore flow. If that happens, we could
see warmer temperatures than forecast; however, I trended with a
slightly more pessimistic forecast for Wednesday. If your`e outside
the East and North Bay areas, warmer weather is on tap for
Wednesday.

The area area to watch will be interior Central Coast temperatures
tonight. Ended up tweaking the values in these area based on the
past few nights being a touch colder than expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1256 PM PST Tue Dec 9 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Heights will build into for the later portion of the work week,
leading to high temperatures climbing a few degrees each day. The
question will be, what does that mean for our friends who have been
stuck with stratus? The ridge should limit the spread of the stratus
and fog, due to the marine layer compressing. If any clouds and fog
do form, they should at least erode faster leading to smaller
warming trend for these areas. High temperatures falter a few
degrees as we head towards the weekend as upper level ridging slides
eastwards. The next chance for rain may occur early next week. The
dates of when this occurs seem to continue to be pushed back, so
stay tuned.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

Another messy start to the day with low clouds and some fog
impacting the N, E, S, and SF Bay. Monterey Bay on the other hand
is VFR. Expect another slow clearing of cigs for the greater Bay
Area again, but still expecting some SCT late this afternoon.
Another repeat for cigs again tonight in the N and E Bay, but an
uptick in drying NE winds at 2500 ft will keep less clouds in SF
Bay.  Could even see some marginal LLWS for KOAK early tomorrow.

Vicinity of SFO...IFR conditions remain with cigs and some haze.
Cams and satellite show some clearing farther out in the Bay, but
slow going for the terminal itself. Will keep cigs through 19-20Z.
Tonight and tomorrow less conf, but VFR at the moment with drier
offshore flow.

SFO Bridge Approach...Same as SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 921 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

High pressure off the California coast will maintain northerly
flow over the coastal waters. Winds are locally stronger south of
Point Pinos leading to hazardous conditions today. Winds will
strengthen across all outer waters later this week. A new, long
period northwesterly swell is expected by midday Wednesday,
lasting into the early weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 132 AM PST Tue Dec 9 2025

Long period swell will impact the coast Wednesday - Friday. This
energy brings strong rip currents, an increased risk for sneaker
waves, and large breaking waves. NW swell around 8 feet with a 15
second period will translate to breaking waves up to 15-20 feet.
These conditions may warrant a Beach Hazards Statement, particularly
with the warm weather likely luring more people to the Beach.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Friday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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