077
FXUS66 KMTR 202134
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
134 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1257 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

 - Light, scattered showers continue south of the SF Bay this
   afternoon

 - Any lingering showers expected to end by around midnight. Drier
   and very nice Friday.

 - Quiet pattern setting up going into the Thanksgiving holiday.
   Dry and cool temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1257 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025
(This evening through Friday)

Isolated showers south of the SF Bay will continue to taper off
this afternoon. Moisture on the decline with drier air moving in
from the northwest. Shouldn`t expect too much more rain outside of
a few very isolated showers here and there through the early
evening. We`ll dry out everywhere by about midnight, becoming
clear overnight which will help us cool off by a few degrees. This
will likely be one of the coolest nights we`ve had so far this
season with overnight lows in the lower 40 nearly across the
board, mid-to-upper 40s along the coast and upper 30s for interior
high elevations. Friday looks like a wonderful day to be out and
about with any lingering clouds clearing out early and sunny
skies persisting through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1257 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Light offshore flow as the closed off upper low lingers around
SoCal/Baja, resulting in weak easterly winds aloft. The marine
layer is expected to reform late Saturday once the atmosphere
begins to re-stratify, but these weak offshore winds will keep it
fairly compressed. Therefore, fog chances increase along the coast
and low inland valleys beginning Sunday morning into early next
week. Not too much in the way of additional impacts from the
offshore winds other than keeping us a bit cooler. Pretty quiet
pattern going into mid next week other than that. A nice ridge
pattern develops along the West Coast and amplifies into the
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Lingering showers and low clouds begin to exit into the afternoon
and evening, while mid-level clouds prevail through much of the day.
Winds become moderate into the afternoon but are expected to become
light into the evening and early night. Cloud cover erodes
overnight, with some pockets of fog possible in the more interior
valleys. Cloud cover fails to reform into Friday with light to
moderate winds expected through that afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...Lower clouds and lingering showers are eroding.
Expect mid-level clouds to last through the evening and exit into
the night. Moderate northwest winds build into the afternoon with
gusts peaking around 21 kts. Gusts cut off and winds reduce into the
evening. Winds turn north-northeast in the late night through Friday
morning, but turn northwest again that afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds are lifting, but scattered mid-
level clouds linger through the day. Expect light shower chances to
linger into the evening, but chances look to exit the region into
the night. Moderate to breezy winds reduce in the evening, and
become light as cloud cover erodes into the night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 844 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

Expect hazardous marine conditions through the weekend as winds
and swells build. A weak storm system has arrived, bringing light
rain and moderate to strong winds with strong to near gale force
gusts. Gale force gusts are possible as frontal passage occurs
but, given the speed of the cold front, they are expected to be
short lived with winds diminishing quickly. Winds diminish by
early Friday with moderate northerly winds expected into next
week. Seas build to 10 to 15 feet Thursday and remain elevated
into early next week. Elevated seas will be prolonged by the
arrival of two distinct rounds of long period northwesterly swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 322 PM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Thursday afternoon
through Monday evening. A long period northwesterly swell will
result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents.
Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. Sneaker waves can
unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more
frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and
piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM PST this afternoon through
     Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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