440
FXUS66 KMTR 162046
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
146 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday

 - Offshore winds in the higher elevations tonight and again Friday
   night into Saturday

 - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of
   sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches Friday
   night and into Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(This evening through Friday)

Building surface high pressure across the eastern Pacific will
result in a warming trend over the next few days as it builds into
the Great Basin on Friday. Also, a coastal trough will develop over
the California coast. This will result in north-northeasterly winds
across the higher terrain, especially across the North Bay overnight
tonight and into early Friday morning. Wind gusts will generally
remain below 35 mph in the highest peaks of the North Bay. However,
fire weather concerns will be limited by the offshore winds not
being overly strong and recent rainfall.

There is about a 15-30% chance for fog over the Bay Shoreline early
Friday morning, yet confidence is not high enough to include in the
official forecast. Temperatures Friday morning will bottom out in
the 40s across the North Bay and southern interior Central Coast
with low 50s elsewhere.

Any low clouds or fog that do develop will likely dissipate by
around 10 AM Friday. The offshore flow aloft will result in warming
temperatures by Friday afternoon when non-coastal areas warm into
the 70s with low-to-mid 60s at the coast. These temperatures will be
up to 5 degrees F above seasonal averages under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025
(Friday night through next Wednesday)

Friday night and into Saturday morning, offshore winds will persist
in higher elevations across the North Bay, weaker elsewhere and
weaker than what we are expecting tonight with temperatures mostly
in the 50s to upper 40s in the North Bay and southern interior
Central Coast.

On Sunday, a cut-off mid/upper level low will develop off of
southern California and will result in less of a cool down than
previously expected. This would act to block the approaching upper
level trough from pushing a cold front across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. However, temperatures are forecast to cool by a few
degrees on Sunday. Still expecting offshore winds to develop in the
higher terrain as the trough moves into the Intermountain West
Monday and Tuesday. Mostly zonal flow aloft is expected through the
remainder of next week across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Thus,
temperatures are forecast to be near normal for this time of year.

Longer range guidance suggests a wetter pattern developing by next
weekend (October 25th and 26th) along with cooler temperatures. This
is reflected in both the 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks issued by the
Climate Prediction Center. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Light offshore flow this morning leading to clearing skies and
high confidence in VFR. Dry cold frontal passage overnight
expected to bring some mix of high clouds to the region, but
overall anticipated to remain mostly clear of low-level stratus,
with the exception of patchy stratus around the immediate Bay
Area.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Patchy stratus overnight around the
immediate bay, but should remain SCT. Low confidence in BKN or OVC
coverage due to high clouds and light offshore flow. NE winds
during the morning hours expected to remain below 4-7 kts.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with a slight chance of localized
stratus developing invof KMRY thru midnight. Anticipated to remain
mostly clear thereafter thanks to weak offshore flow. VFR thru
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

North to northwest breezes will become moderate to fresh by this
afternoon and into the evening and then hold through the end of
this week. A few gusts will be strong, favoring the outer waters
and south of Pigeon Point for the inner waters. A longer period
northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7 to 10 feet at 15
seconds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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