027
FXUS63 KOAX 210535
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1135 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog redeveloping tonight.

- Rain chances increasing to 40-80% late tonight and Friday
  south of I-80.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend with increasing
  rain chances (40-70%) Monday.

- Temperatures trending cooler next week with highs in the 30s
  forecast for Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Tonight and Friday:

A negatively tilted short-wave trough over the southern Rockies
this afternoon is forecast to weaken as it progresses northeast
into an increasingly confluent mid-level flow pattern in place
from the central Plains into mid-MS Valley. At the surface, an
associated area of low pressure over the eastern TX panhandle
into western OK will develop into southeast KS by Friday morning
before accelerating east through southern MO. A weak boundary
which moved into our area last night will shift into KS and MO,
where it will link with the migratory surface low.

A relatively moist, low-level air mass present both ahead of
and behind the weak boundary contributed to considerable fog
development earlier today with visibilities gradually improving
as of early afternoon. Associated cloud cover remains fairly
widespread with today`s high temperatures adjusted lower to
account for it`s presence. A slightly drier air mass will work
its way into the northern part of our area tonight with fog
development/continuation most likely along and south of I-80.

Late tonight into Friday, strengthening low/mid-level
frontogenetical forcing ahead of the approaching short-wave
trough will support increasing rain chances (maximum PoPs of
40-80%) for locations south of I-80. Most of the precipitation
will be light, but some 0.25-0.50" totals are possible near the
KS border. Widespread clouds and areas of rain will limit
daytime heating Friday with highs in the 40s.


This Weekend:

Another mid/upper-level low is projected to move into Baja and
the Desert Southwest Saturday before shifting northeast into the
central and southern Rockies Sunday. Some amplification of a
downstream ridge over the central Plains is forecast with
southerly surface winds drawing a warmer air mass into the
region with highs in the 50s to low 60s.


Next Week:

The Rockies system mentioned above is forecast to shift into the
central Plains Monday with PoPs increasing to 40-70%. A higher-
latitude short-wave trough is expected amplify on the immediate
heels of the lead system across the northern and central Plains
Monday night into Tuesday, supporting the movement of a stronger
cold front through the area at that time. Highs mainly in the
50s Monday are forecast to fall into the 40s and 50s Tuesday, 30s
and 40s Wednesday, with 30s expected on Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

KOFK: VFR conditions continue at the terminal. Certainty in fog
development around the terminal has gone down over the past
couple of hours. Left a mention of some fog with limited
reductions to visibility from 09-15Z due to this uncertainty.
Right now, any rainfall through the TAF period is currently
expected to fall south and east of the terminal. Northeast winds
will transition to northerly by 23Z.

KOMA: Fog has developed across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa
and will continue to cause some impacts to the region. There may
be some reductions to visibility due to fog through around 14Z.
Rain showers will move in from the south after sunrise. The best
timeframe for impacts at the terminal will be from 15-20Z with
some possible reductions to visibility and low ceilings. Showers
taper off in the afternoon with ceilings lifting to MVFR/VFR
levels.

KLNK: Fog has developed across southeastern Nebraska and
continues to cause visibility reductions to the terminal. This
will continue over the next few hours, first by fog and followed
by rain showers moving in from the south. As these showers move
in, fog chances will decrease and visibility reductions due to
rain are expected. There are chances for rain from 11-23Z;
however, the best chances for impactful rainfall will be between
14-21Z. Rain will taper off in the afternoon with visibility and
ceilings improving to VFR conditions.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...ANW