416
FXUS63 KOAX 221713
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a mild, dry weekend with highs in the low 60s; rain
  chances increase again Monday, peaking at 60-80%.

- Cooler weather arrives next week, with highs falling into the
  30s and low 40s by Thanksgiving.

- Monitor the forecast for Thanksgiving into next weekend, there
  are early hints of snowfall, but confidence in timing and
  location remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Early morning analysis showed surface high pressure in control
across the area with just some passing mid to high clouds in the
forecast area. However, there was a small area of dense fog
across south-central NE into north-central KS where there was a
low level moisture axis, some earlier breaks in the clouds, and
winds aloft were at a minimum under low level ridging. A few
pieces of guidance (e.g. the HRRR) bring that patch of fog
through roughly the southern half of the forecast area this
morning, dissipating it toward mid to late morning. Not
particularly confident in how it will pan out given the
aforementioned clouds in place and some decent winds aloft.
However, dewpoint depressions as of 2 AM were only a degree or 2
in many locations, so it wouldn`t take much moisture advection
to reduce those to 0. At the very least, think we`ll have some
patchy dense fog roll through this morning. Other than that,
it`ll be a pretty quiet day, though a touch breezy with some
wind gusts of 20-25 mph. We`ll see some passing clouds, but we
should be able to mix fairly well, allowing temperatures to
climb into the lower to mid 60s across much of the area.

By late this afternoon/evening, a cold front currently over the
western Dakotas will have worked through the area, with winds
becoming northwesterly. Temperatures won`t be impacted too much,
but we might be a few degrees cooler overnight Saturday night
with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. In addition, surface
high pressure will be building in and should lead to a clear
night with very light winds, setting the stage for another round
of at least patchy fog development into Sunday morning.
Otherwise, southerly winds on the back side of departing high
pressure will allow highs to get back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. So overall, a pretty pleasant weekend for late
November.

Attention then turns to a cutoff low progged to be in eastern
CO by Sunday evening with associated rain starting to push into
the forecast area toward midnight into early Monday morning.
While rain chances are high (60-90% chance through a good chunk
of the day Monday), totals look to be fairly modest, with
consensus suggesting only a 20-40% chance of at least a quarter
inch in a given spot. That precip will exit from west to east
Monday evening/night, though a northern stream shortwave trough
will be on its heels, pushing through the Dakotas on Tuesday,
with a surface low deepening over MN/WI. Strong northwest winds
on the back side of this low will bring in cooler weather for
the remainder of the week (50s on Monday, 40s Tuesday, then 30s
and 40s Wednesday into the weekend). In addition, guidance
continues to suggest some precipitation could wrap around the
back side of that low and clip portions of northeast NE into
west-central IA Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the
aforementioned cold air moving in, this precipitation would
likely fall as snow, though overall consensus keeps a vast
majority of that precip to our north. Currently giving it a
10-15% chance of seeing snow in our area, with little to no
impact expected if we do.

Beyond Wednesday, we`ll need to continue to monitor for
potential snowfall at some point Thursday into the weekend.
While the vast majority of guidance is dry Thursday and Friday
with surface high pressure in control, there are a handful of
ensemble members that slide some weak shortwave energy through
that interacts with a front and brings us a band of snow. For
now, giving that about a 10% chance at most with very low
confidence in the timing, strength, and location of any system,
but given the increased travel, it`s definitely worth
monitoring. Instead, the overall trend has been toward increased
chances of a potentially stronger system impacting the area
sometime Saturday into early next week. Unfortunately, there is
A LOT of spread in how that one would pan out as well (timing,
strength, location, precipitation type, etc.), but given the
cold air in place, at least part of the area would likely see
accumulating snow with any system that does move through. So if
you have travel plans for Thanksgiving, make sure to keep up to
date on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle. A
front will move through from northwest to southeast, switching
winds from west southwest to northwest this afternoon. Winds may
gust around 20 kts at times, primarily at KOFK while slightly lighter
winds are anticipated at KOMA and KLNK. Confidence has
increased regarding fog development after 08z across western
Iowa, eventually reaching KOMA after 12z. Have added a FM group
reducing visibilities to MVFR at KOMA for this issuance, but
expect further refinements and adjustments with subsequent
issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Castillo