193
FXUS63 KOAX 021036
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
536 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or two remain possible, though unlikely,
  this morning.

- Expect temperatures returning to the 90s by Friday as a ridge
  sets in over the region.

- Cooler weather moves Sunday-Monday, with the arrival of a
  stout cold front. This will also bring chances for showers and
  storms which linger into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

As a weak shortwave moves through, we`re seeing a couple
isolated showers/storms across the region, for now staying
northeast and south of our area. With a history of these storms
producing lighting, went ahead and allowed 15% PoPs across
portions of our area this morning. Still think low-level dry air
will make it difficult for any meaningful precipitation to reach
the ground.

A second ridge builds up across the region today bringing back
clearer skies and warmer temperatures with highs today reaching
into the upper 80s to around 90. This pattern will stay in place
through Friday with some locations getting into the low 90s on
Friday.

Friday should be our warmest day as we see a strong upper-level
trough moving inland from the West Coast going into this
weekend. Ahead of the trough, we`ll see winds ramp up out of the
south with potential for gusts 35 to 45 mph. The NBM shows a 50%
chance of wind gusts > 40mph for portions of northeast Nebraska
where winds will likely be strongest. These winds will peak
Saturday afternoon and evening, weakening overnight with the
upper-level front moving through Sunday morning shifting winds
more south-southwesterly to align with the warm/moist conveyor
belts ahead of the developing low pressure system over the
Dakotas.

Temperatures on Sunday will be milder with increasing cloud
cover as moisture streams into the region. We start to see low
chances for showers and storms Sunday afternoon across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, ramping up Sunday evening with PoPs
35-45%. Shower/storm chances spread and expand north by Monday
morning as the cold front pushes through.

Look at this cold front as the likely transition to Fall with
temperatures dropping 20-30 degrees behind the front. Highs
starting Monday through at least the first half of the week may
stay down in the 60s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid
50s. The cold front stalls across our area Monday and lingers
through keeping 30-50% PoPs in the forecast for much of our
area apart from far northeast Nebraska through at least Tuesday
morning.

There is some uncertainty in how the pattern evolves beyond
Tuesday as some guidance pushes the front south Tuesday
afternoon, shutting of precip as a Canadian High sinks south
over the region keeping us cooler and drying us out midweek.
Other guidance is slower to clear the stalled front, keeping
rain chances into Wednesday. For this reason, have left in low
20% PoPs for Wednesday, with the more likely scenario being that
Wednesday is dry.

Going into the latter half of next week, an active, Fall-like
pattern continues with another upper-level shortwave bringing
in another system Wednesday night/Thursday. Deterministic
guidance is all over the place with this system, so keeping
with ensemble forecast for precipitation chances. Details only
get fuzzier as the patterns continue to diverge going into late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Scattered-broken cigs
around FL070 this morning should clear out by this afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the south.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy