990
FXUS63 KOAX 011039
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
539 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15 to 20% chance for scattered rain showers for far eastern
  Nebraska and western Iowa early this morning. A few flurries
  (< 13% chance) may also occur.

- 13 to 15% chance for sprinkles/flurries across far western and
  southwest Iowa after 11 am. Showers exit by the early evening.
  Highs today reach the mid to upper 40s.

- Dry and breezy conditions are anticipated for Sunday with
  highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Dry weather continues for
  much of next week until late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

KOAX radar imagery is detecting a few light precipitation echoes
over west central and southwest Iowa early this morning. This
activity is likely being forcing by a ribbon of cyclonic vorticity
emanating from the 541dam H5 closed low now centered over
southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin. 06z
METARs have so far reported only a trace of rainfall associated
with this activity, while temperatures ranged from the mid/upper
30s to low 40s. Model soundings in the immediate near-term
suggest portions of the profile just above H9 at or slightly
below freezing, so a few flurries can`t be ruled out with this
activity. PoPs remain at 15 to 20% across far eastern Nebraska
and western Iowa through at least 12z.

With much of the forecast area still influenced by the H5 low and
any remnant forcing today, expect the spotty showers to continue
into the daytime hours, particularly over western and southwest
Iowa. BUFKIT soundings suggest a minimal amount of instability
beneath an inversion seen at H8, particularly along and east of the
Missouri River Valley in the afternoon hours. Given latest CAM suite
keeps the widely scattered shower activity along the eastern fringes
of our county warning area, have kept 13 to 15% PoPs there with
mentions of sprinkles/flurries from 16z to 22z.

Sfc high pressure will pivot east into central and eastern Nebraska
today resulting in light north northwesterly winds. Clouds and
showers will gradually push off to our east by the early evening
hours. With the aforementioned cloud cover, did slightly lower high
temperatures, primarily across our eastern service area where they
may hang around a little longer. So, expect highs today in the mid
to upper 40s, slightly cooler than yesterday. A cool night is
expected with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s as we`ll have minimal
cloud cover and light winds as the sfc high is progged to sit just
to our southeast.

H8 warm air advection and southerly to southwesterly flow at the sfc
will result in warmer temperatures on Sunday. Expect mostly sunny
skies with highs in the low to mid 60s across eastern Nebraska,
while cooler highs in the mid 50s are anticipated east of the
Missouri River. Weak shortwaves embedded within H5 zonal flow will
help induce a sfc low and resultant cold front that will push
through OAX late Sunday night. Given the lack of moisture, only
expecting some mid to high level based cloudiness. A tightening
pressure gradient and mixing into a channel of 25 to 30kt winds
at H9 will result in breezy 15 to 25 mph southerly winds with
gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds will subside by the
evening. Lows Sunday night warm back to the upper 30s to low
40s.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Despite subtle H5 ridging seen on Monday, temperatures will be
slightly cooler (low 60s for most) compared to Sunday as we`ll be
behind the sfc front and influenced by the sfc high. A mix of clouds
and sun is forecast with dry conditions.

Late Monday into Tuesday will see the ridge become flattened
resulting in generally zonal flow over the Central Plains. A
shortwave will ride the flow over the Rockies and eject east into
the Central Plains by Tuesday morning. Moisture appears to lack with
this wave, however, so expect to see dry conditions persist.

Ridging will once again build into the region by late Wednesday into
Thursday resulting in generally quiet weather and highs in the low
to mid 60s. The next best chance for precipitation returns late
Thursday into Friday morning as a more potent H5 shortwave trof
ejects from the Rockies east toward the Northern and Central Plains.
For this forecast package, NBM extended highlights a corridor of 15
to 20% PoPs primarily along the far eastern edges of our service
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

MVFR ceiling restrictions are observed at all three terminals
for the start of this TAF period. Ceilings will lift to VFR
after 13z at KOFK, while MVFR restrictions linger into the
afternoon hours at KOMA and KLNK. A few scattered showers are
observed early this morning northeast of line from near KOMA to
KLCG, but currently expecting these to stay northeast of any
terminals. More spotty showers may develop east of KOMA this
afternoon, but at about a 13 to 15% chance. Northwest winds will
remain under 12 kts for the majority of the TAF cycle, switching
to the north northeast after sunset and becoming calm.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo