419
FXUS63 KOAX 092019
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northwest winds are likely (>80%) tonight into
  Wednesday morning with gusts up to 50-65 mph.

- Light, mixed-precipitation chances (20-30%) Wednesday night
  into Thursday, followed by a return of colder temperatures
  for the weekend.

- Another round of light snow is possible (20-40% chance) Friday
  night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery and objective analysis
indicate an elongated vorticity ribbon from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into ND, on the cyclonic side of mid/upper-
level jet streaks extending from the Pacific coast into northern
Plains. The interaction of those features will result in
considerable trough amplification across the north-central U.S.
over the next 12-24 hours. Meanwhile at the surface, low
pressure currently over central ND will track southeast into the
upper Midwest overnight with a trailing cold front diving south
through our area.

To the south of the surface low track, southwest to west winds
have advected a considerably warmer air mass into our area with
2 PM temperatures in the 50s across most of eastern NE. The
warm spot was Albion at 58 degrees. The warm temperatures will
work hard to melt much of the remaining snow cover in our area
today, ahead of the cold front approaching from the north. A few
sprinkles appear possible this afternoon into evening as a
leading belt of forcing for ascent saturates the atmosphere 9-10
kft above ground.

Tonight, the rapid intensification of the weather system
mentioned above will result in considerable strengthening of the
northwest winds developing behind the surface cold front.
Several deterministic models indicate wind gusts of 55-65 mph
with the 12z HREF indicating a large swath of median and mean
wind gusts of 50-55+ mph moving through at least the northern
half of our area overnight into Wednesday morning. As such, we
have upgraded the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning for
locations along and north of a David City to Omaha metro to
Oakland, IA line.

Winds will diminish through the day Wednesday with high
temperatures ranging from the low 40s in the southwest part of
our area to upper 20s to low 30s in the northeast.


Wednesday night and Thursday:

Strengthening low/mid-level warm advection occurring on the
backside of a surface ridge shifting to the east will support a
chance of light precipitation (20-30% PoPs) in portions of
northeast NE and west-central IA. Based on model soundings and
explicit precipition-type output, it appears any precipitation
would start out as light snow with a possible mix with freezing
drizzle or light freezing rain occurring Thursday morning. Any
ice accumulation would be light, but it doesn`t take much to
cause problems. So, we`re monitoring model trends closely.

Highs on Thursday are expected to range from the low 50s in the
southwest part of our area to low 30s in areas that stand the
best chance to see any light precipitation.


Friday through Monday:

A colder air mass will filter into the region on the backside of
the Wednesday night-Thursday system with highs in the 20s and
30s Friday, and teens and 20s Saturday. Another clipper system
is forecast to pass to our north Friday night into Saturday with
an associated zone of warm advection supporting a 20-40% chance
of light snow across northeast NE into west-central IA. The
coldest temperatures are expected Saturday night into Sunday
morning with readings in the single digits above and below zero.
Associated wind chills of -10 to -20 are forecast in northeast
NE and southwest IA with generally -5 to -10 elsewhere.

Current indications are that we will see moderating temperatures
Sunday into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
There is a 30-40% chance that MVFR ceilings will move into the KOMA
area Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles are possible (10-15% chance)
this afternoon into evening, but nothing heavy enough to affect
visibilities. The primary aviation impact this period is strong
northwest winds that will develop tonight into Wednesday morning.
Gusts up to 40-50 kt appear likely (greater than 70% chance of
occurrence), mainly in the 10/06z-10/13z timeframe.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday
     for NEZ033-034-042>045-050>053.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for
     NEZ065>068-078-088>093.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Wednesday
     for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>032.
IA...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday
     for IAZ043-055-056-069.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for
     IAZ079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead