916
FXUS63 KOAX 051038
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
538 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon
  and continue into Tuesday morning. A strong storm or two is
  possible late Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional rain
  chances exist on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Much cooler temperatures Monday, with highs in the upper 50s
  to mid 60s. Temperatures gradually warm back into the 70s by
  late in the workweek and possibly low 80s next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Satellite and radar show a line of showers with an embedded isolated
storm or two moving across east-central Nebraska toward our far
western counties. This line will continue to dissipate as it
moves into eastern Nebraska, likely not making it much farther
than Norfolk. Most of these showers are out ahead of the
approaching cold front, though you can see the boundary along
the back-edge of the showers currently stretching from Ainsworth
to Ringgold, NE, north of North Platte.

The cold front will arrive into northeast Nebraska just before
noon today, bringing in cooler air and providing an axis for
shower/storm potential this afternoon in the quasi-moist,
semi-unstable air mass that is largely uncapped. CAM data
suggest showers starting to pop up around 1PM this afternoon
just ahead of the cold front. Showers and storms stay widely
scattered along the boundary through this afternoon, ramping up
in coverage this evening as the boundary stalls across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and the low-level jet ramps back
up providing additional moisture and elevated instability along
and north of the front. Expect showers and storms to train along
a corridor from Beatrice northeast through Red Oak or Oakland,
IA overnight, with a band of heavier rainfall surrounded by more
modest rainfall amounts due to the more scattered nature of
showers outside this band along the stationary front.

With regard to the nature of the storms, only marginal
instability should limit the potential for an organized severe
threat, but strengthening vertical shear could support a strong
storm or two capable of quarter-size hail and/or strong winds.
Locally heavy rainfall will likely be the bigger threat Sunday
night into Monday as the front slowly progresses through
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We should see rain
chances come to an end by Tuesday morning as the cold front
finally exits off to the south.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

Mid-week will be a bit of a reprieve from the showery activity
as a Canadian High slides south over the Northern and Central
Plains. This will keep temperatures mild with highs in the 60s
and chilly morning lows in the low-to-mid 40s. We start to see
the flow reversal back to southerly toward the end of the day on
Wednesday as the High slides off to the east and see see the
return of the Low-Level Jet over western and central Nebraska.

Thursday and Beyond:

A shortwave trough will bring another weak front through on
Thursday, amplifying the low-level jet and bringing in enough
moisture from the Gulf for shower and storm activity overnight
Wednesday through the day on Thursday. Details are still murky,
but the distanced nature of the shower/storm activity from the
upper-level wave and surface low likely indicates low potential
for anything severe from this system.

Towards the end of the week wee see another ridge start to build
over the Rockies and slide eastward into the Central Plains
bringing back warmer weather with highs back in the 70s for
Thursday and Friday, and potentially low 80s Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions with scattered clouds around FL070 and FL100
ahead of a cold front moving into eastern Nebraska. We`ll see
winds shift to northerly behind the frontal passage by this
afternoon with showers and storms possible along the cold front,
especially this afternoon through the overnight hours tonight.
Cigs should stay high around FL070 with any showers and storms
until after 06Z when shower/storm activity across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa will see cigs lower to 1500-2500 ft.
This should all be southeast of the terminals, but if the
boundary stalls farther north than forecast, we could see MVFR
cigs at KLKN and/or KOMA after 06Z. Probably a 20% chance at
KOMA and 40% chance at KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy