391
FXUS63 KOAX 021146
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
546 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect quieter weather today with warmer temperatures
  expected.

- Wednesday brings a chance for a few flurries or snow showers
  and shot of much colder air. Thursday morning lows will be
  below zero for many.

- Expect a warm up again Friday and Saturday, with another cool
  down late in the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Skies have cleared out and temperatures continue to fall early this
morning. Lows will be in the single digits above zero for most areas
with a few low double digits near the Kansas/Nebraska border. Wind
chills as you head out the door will be in the single digits above
and below zero. Tuesday will be quiet and warmer as northwest flow
transitions to zonal through the day. Temperatures will warm into
the 30s this afternoon, giving us a brief reprieve from the cold.
Clouds increase after sunrise this morning, becoming partly cloudy
south of of Hwy 92 and mostly cloudy for areas north. With the
slightly warmer temperatures and some sunshine, some melting of snow
and snow-packed areas may begin to occur. This may lead to some
refreezing issues overnight as temperatures drop.

Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning, a mid-level shortwave trough will
slide into the region from the northwest. Northeastern Nebraska may
get clipped with a shower or two overnight and into Wednesday
morning. As this system moves southeast, a few light flurries or
snow showers may impact the region. Little to no accumulation is
expected with this system.

A backdoor cold front pushes south into Nebraska and Iowa beginning
late Tuesday night. With the timing of the cold fropa, expected high
temperatures may occur during the early morning hours on Wednesday
before dropping through the day. North winds will increase to around
15-25mph with gusts as high as 35mph. Wind chill values in the
afternoon will be in the single digits for northern Nebraska and the
teens and 20s for the rest of the Omaha CWA.

The arctic blast of colder air will result in bitterly cold
temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Expected low
temperatures will range from around 3 degrees above zero toward the
Kansas/Nebraska border to around 12 degrees below zero in western
Iowa. Lincoln`s record low temperature is -6, so this will be
something to keep an eye on as the current forecasted temperature
for Thursday morning is -5. Wind chill values as cold as 15 below
zero will be possible during the morning. Thursday highs will remain
on the cold side, with highs in the teens in western Iowa and the
20s in eastern Nebraska.

Temperatures rebound into the 20s and 30s on Friday and Saturday as
the cold front exits the region and northwest flow sets up. An
embedded shortwave trough will enter the region Saturday morning.
This quick-moving system may clip northeast Nebraska and western
Iowa with a couple of snow showers. Chances are at about 20% right
now. Models are showing another brief cool down (highs in the
20s) toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions prevail through most of the forecast period at
the terminals. A few pockets of patchy fog are possible near the
Missouri River this morning, but shouldn`t cause any major
impacts to the terminals. Southerly winds turn to the southwest
this afternoon, becoming northwesterly after midnight. A cold
front will move in from the north this tonight, bringing
ceilings down to at leave MVFR levels, with possible IFR levels
toward that latter part of the forecast period. LLWS may be
possible as the cold front moves into the region; however,
timing of the frontal passage is still a little uncertain, which
lowered confidence in timing of potential onset for LLWS, so
this was omitted from prevailing conditions for now. Some light
snow may be possible by sunrise Wednesday near KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW