414
FXUS64 KOHX 222330
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
530 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. Low
  chance for severe storms.

- Dry weather Wednesday through the late weekend.

- Temperatures turn cold Wednesday night, ahead of Thanksgiving
  Day. High chance (80-95%) for temperatures to reach 30 degrees
  or less by Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 931 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Showers and thunderstorms moved out of Middle late last night,
making way for a pleasant partly to mostly sunny morning. That
said, a frontal boundary is pushing south into TN late this
morning and is increasing cloud cover over the mid state.
Satellite imagery shows the backside of the boundary passing
through northern KY at time of writing. Thinking that cloud cover
will generally remain mostly cloudy today as the front continues
to slide south. Mostly sunny skies develop by Sunday afternoon.

Dry weather is anticipated today through Sunday as a mid-level
ridge build to our west and shift east over TN through Monday.
This ridge will be fairly transient though as a trough moves
through Monday night through the end of the week bringing showers
an thunderstorms back for early next week.

Temperatures remain mild with yesterday (Friday) seeing 12 degrees
above normal temperatures during the afternoon and 22 degrees
above normal for overnight lows. Today and Sunday will be similar
as highs remaining mostly in the 60s and even some counties south
of I-40 seeing low 70s again this afternoon. Overnight lows will
be cooler than our last few previous days, falling into the 40s
and even into the upper 30s across the Upper Cumberland Sunday
night, thanks to the additional cloud clearing on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 931 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

As mentioned above, our next round of showers and thunderstorms
move through Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-level trough and
associated cold front move through. Have been tracking this set
up for the past couple of days, and still not overly concerned for
any severe weather at this time. Looking very similar to what we
saw this week, high shear/low CAPE and weak lapse rates type of
environment. The cold front looks to exit the mid state by late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, just in time for
Thanksgiving Day as Wednesday night lows drop into the 20s and
30s. This ushers in our next pattern change as more dry, arctic
air spills into the U.S. Highs come Thanksgiving Day only reach
into the upper 40s to low 50s while overnight temperatures drop
further into the mid to upper 20s. By the end of the weekend,
temperatures begin to warm through next week with returning rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

MVFR cigs prevail for the majority of Middle TN tonight. An IFR
cloud deck at 008 is currently draped over northwest middle TN,
currently impacting CKV and gradually slipping southeast. Have
included a brief window of IFR cigs at BNA from 03Z-08Z. MVFR
cigs are anticipated overnight for all terminals once this layer
lifts. Areas of patchy fog will be possible overnight, mainly at
CKV, CSV, and SRB. An improvement to VFR thresholds is likely
after 18Z as clouds thin out. Northwesterly winds will prevail
between 4-6 kts through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  65  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    41  63  42  66 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     42  61  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       45  66  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     44  62  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      43  60  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   45  65  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  64  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        43  64  43  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Baggett