381
FXUS64 KOHX 030053
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
653 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Low risk of freezing fog tonight. Please monitor this for the
  Wednesday morning commute.

- Rain chances return Thursday night. Very low chance of
  rain/freezing rain across our southern counties, closer to the
  Alabama state line early Friday morning.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Temperatures are steadily dropping this evening with most areas
already in the upper 20s. We remain socked in under a thick
stratus deck where the clearing line currently resides over
Arkansas. We continue to monitor this closely as freezing fog will
be likely overnight IF clouds clear. This possibility remains low
with such expansive cloud cover, but should any pockets of
clearing occur, freezing fog will develop. Otherwise, temperatures
tonight will be bitterly cold as values dip into the teens to low
20s. Drip those faucets tonight!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Rains have exited Middle TN this morning and in their wake, plenty
of clouds remain and it looks like this is going to be the case
until tomorrow morning. That means it`s gonna be a chilly sun-less
day across the mid-state. While the front is all the way through the
area, we are getting a report or two of drizzle with a few
snowflakes being squeezed out of these clouds, especially across our
southern and Plateau counties. This may be the case through the
morning hours, but they won`t amount to much. Look for highs to
struggle to reach 40 anywhere in the area this afternoon.

Tonight, because of how saturated the ground is and with tiny dew
point depressions, some fog is possible. Coupled with overnight lows
in the low to mid 20s, there is a low concern for freezing fog.
Remember, for fog to rime on surfaces like bridges and overpasses,
it needs to be pretty thick -- like 1/4 to 1/2 mile. There`s two
places this could occur. First, the Plateau (which isn`t a big
surprise) and second, areas west of I-65. However, this will require
clouds to break up to allow for dense fog to develop. We`ll monitor
the cloud trends this afternoon. Just keep this in mind for the
Wednesday morning commute. Clouds and any fog should start to break
up Wednesday after sunrise and the sun is expected to return with
highs about 10 degrees warmer than today but still about 10 degrees
below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Our next chance for precipitation enters the picture Thursday night.
An initial glance at the setup had me worried about an overrunning
scenario where rain moves in from the south with surface
temperatures at or below freezing causing freezing rain.
Fortunately, after looking at forecast soundings, this doesn`t look
to be the case. We`ve got a pretty deep layer of warm air and
surface temperatures should remain above freezing. That said, one or
two models are spitting out a hundreths or two of freezing rain
across our southern tier of counties, so it`s something we`ll have
to monitor over the next 48 to 60 hours. Shy of that, a cold rain
will envelop Middle TN Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall totals
are fairly light at 0.25-0.30" or less through early Friday
afternoon.

The rest of the forecast revolves around multiple chances for light
rain and pretty chilly temperatures. Sunday is the first of those,
with Monday morning presenting an opportunity to squeeze out some
flakes on the backside of the system. If it happens, it`ll likely be
one of those Plateau-centered light snows. However, lots can change
in 6 days. For now, we can expect for temperatures to remain below
normal and rainfall to be below normal, as well over the next 6-10
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Overcast skies will remain across Middle Tennessee tonight.
Current MVFR ceilings will drop to LIFR overnight. If any cloud
cover dissipates, fog will be possible, however, confidence
remains low at this time. With temperatures in the 20s overnight,
this could result in FZFG. The highest confidence for FZFG will be
at SRB and CSV. BNA, MQY and CKV will have a lower chance of fog
but still cigs will remain LIFR until 14z. VFR conditions will
gradually return to the area after 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      24  47  30  43 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    19  43  27  37 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     20  45  27  42 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       21  48  28  44 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     22  45  27  41 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      22  44  27  41 /   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   20  48  28  44 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   21  48  27  44 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        20  43  27  38 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements