430
FXUS64 KOHX 251705
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1105 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

- 40-60% chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms along the
  Plateau through this evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- Expect drier and much cooler weather Wednesday through Friday
  with widespread sub-freezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday
  nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Stratiform rain has exited to the east, but gusty southerly winds
persist this morning with gusts of 20-30 mph being measured.
These gusts will lessen this afternoon as the surface pressure
gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, a potent cold front is approaching
from the west, and at this time, is moving through Missouri. Ahead
of this front, we`re still expecting scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms to develop along the Plateau this
afternoon. The latest SPC Day 1 Outlook has removed our CWA from
the marginal risk as parameters continue to look unimpressive for
any severe weather this afternoon. So fortunately, we are not
anticipating any impacts from activity that develops.

Showers & storms will gradually diminish after sunset, and then it`s
time for plummeting temperatures. The aforementioned cold front
sweeps through the area tonight, resulting in a much cooler
Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will only be the upper-40s to low-
50s - about 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to today. Behind the
front, northerly winds will be breezy, but it`ll be dry and sunny.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Temperatures will continue to fall Wednesday night and into
Thanksgiving. Widespread freezing temperatures are expected
Wednesday night, and highs for the holiday will be chilly only in
the 40s. The good news is that Thanksgiving Day looks nice
otherwise with plenty of sunshine and no rain in sight. But if
you`re going out Thursday night or early Friday morning, bundle
up! The coldest period of this forecast will be Thursday night as
lows fall into the upper-teens to low-20s.

Surface high pressure builds over the area Friday and into the
weekend, leading to gradually warming temperatures. Meanwhile, a
longwave upper-level trough will begin to take shape to our west.
This trough moves into the Ohio Valley this weekend, resulting in
increasing rain chances late Saturday and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Showers have been ongoing through most of the night, but cats have
remained mainly VFR. This is going to change over the next several
hours as MVFR cigs start to make their way across all mid-state
terminals this morning. These will likely stick around until about
23Z where VFR will return for a short time before additional MVFR
and some IFR (CSV/SRB) cigs return for the overnight period.

Gusty south winds will continue to blow 20-25 kts until 17-18Z
when winds will shift to the west and relax to 10 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  45  54  33 /  90  10   0   0
Clarksville    67  41  50  31 /  90  10   0   0
Crossville     64  42  54  26 / 100  50  10   0
Columbia       71  45  54  31 /  90  10   0   0
Cookeville     67  43  54  28 / 100  50  10   0
Jamestown      65  42  54  28 / 100  60  10   0
Lawrenceburg   70  45  54  31 /  90  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   71  45  55  31 / 100  10   0   0
Waverly        66  40  49  31 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Unger