112
FXUS64 KOHX 150446
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1046 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Breezy and warm on Saturday with low to medium rain chances
  (10-40%) Saturday night, rain amounts remain very light.

- Active weather pattern next week with temperatures favoring
  above-normal.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few t-storms. No severe weather expected at this
  time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Much of the region remains in a broad northwesterly flow aloft,
but with low-level/surface ridging to our southeast. This is
supporting a southerly breeze across the Tennessee Valley and
relatively warm temperatures. Southerly to southwesterly winds
will increase tomorrow with the approach of a shortwave
disturbance and an associated cold front. With afternoon mixing
we`ll likely see winds gusting to 25-30 mph at times. This strong
southwesterly breeze will also support warm temperatures with
highs well into the 70s west of the Plateau. Clouds may limit
warming somewhat, so the latest forecast high for Nashville is
just under the record of 79. We`ll see.

As the cold front approaches overnight night clouds will continue
to build along with a scattering of light rain showers. Guidance
favors areas east of I-65 for rain showers and only the Plateau
is currently forecast to see very light amounts measured (less
than 0.1"). We`ll transition to cooler conditions on Sunday with
northwesterly winds and highs in the 60s as high pressure moves in
from the upper Mississippi Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Medium-range guidance suggests a brief period of less amplified
flow aloft during the Mon/Tue timeframe. However, we`ll contend
with another shortwave disturbance on Tuesday (remnant vorticity
from the upper-low currently off the California Baja). This upper
forcing looks to be sufficient to support a weak surface low
across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday which continues to provide low
to medium rain chances (<60%) across the area.

A more significant upper-level trough is depicted on medium-range
guidance/ensembles toward the end of the week which will also act
to amplify flow aloft. This will support the development of a
deep-layer ridge across the eastern CONUS with a warm front
passage and warm advection appearing likely on Thursday. With this
in mind, scattered to numerous rain showers remain forecast,
particularly near the warm front which is suggested to be north
of I-40 Thursday. Additional chances for rain and a few t-storms
will come once the upper-level disturbance approaches our area
Thursday night into Friday along with a strengthening low-level
jet. This timeframe carries our highest rain chances at the
moment (40-70%). Due to the forecast range and variability amongst
guidance on the evolution of this system, there`s ongoing
uncertainties about rain amounts and if we`ll see any
strong/severe t-storms. Right now there`s not enough confidence to
advertise any hazardous weather, but we`ll obviously watch
forecast trends over the coming days considering the overall
synoptics could present these opportunities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions forecast across Middle TN airports through the TAF
period. Main impacts for Saturday will be increasing SW winds mid
morning through the afternoon with 20-25 kt gusts. A cold front
will approach the area after 00z which will lead to additional
cloud development and continued SW winds even after sunset. Low
rain chances are possible near SRB and CSV after closer to 06z
along with MVFR cigs, but probability is too low for TAF
inclusion at this time.

FROPA expected 06-12z (next TAF period) with shift to NW winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  78  55  66 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    57  76  51  63 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     48  69  52  60 /   0   0  30   0
Columbia       54  77  56  68 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     50  71  54  61 /   0   0  30   0
Jamestown      50  69  51  59 /   0   0  30   0
Lawrenceburg   52  76  56  67 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   52  77  56  66 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        57  75  51  64 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Sizemore