610
FXUS64 KOHX 191747
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1147 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Medium to high rain chances will return to Middle Tennessee
  tomorrow and Friday before a cold front sweeps through the
  region.

- Some storms are possible tomorrow and Friday, but the risk of
  severe storms is very low.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will stay with us through
  Saturday, with slightly cooler weather settling in by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1017 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A surface boundary continues to sag southward through Middle
Tennessee, although we won`t notice much change in temperatures.
However, dew points are already starting to drop from north to
south, and this is giving us a reprieve from active weather for
the next 24 hours or so. However, we do expect areas of fog to
develop once again during the overnight and early morning period
tomorrow. Rain and storm chances will begin to form by tomorrow
afternoon as a warm front develops to our north and a low pressure
system starts to gather steam over the Great Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1017 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Medium to high rain and storm chances will continue through Friday
and into Friday night as a cold front sweeps across the region.
Despite the unseasonable warmth, instability parameters associated
with this environment are quite modest, so it appears that showers
are going to be primary weather mode, with only isolated storms.
And the risk of severe storms over the next couple of days looks
to remain quite low. Rain chances will drop off over the weekend
as we find ourselves between active weather systems. Temperatures
will start to back off a few degrees during the weekend, but will
still remain above normal as we head into next week. The next cold
front looks to sweep through Middle Tennessee maybe Tuesday night,
and this one is expected to bring sharply colder temperatures to
the area during the mid to late week period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

MVFR to VFR conditions are developing across Middle TN this
afternoon as early morning stratus and fog dissipates. Models
continue to hint at another round of low stratus moving in after
04z tonight so have included in latest TAF issuance where
confidence is greatest. Predominantly NW winds today, becoming NE
tonight and then SE by Thursday afternoon. Showers and general
thunderstorms move into Middle TN after 12z Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  69  59 /   0  10  50 100
Clarksville    69  49  66  58 /   0  10  70  90
Crossville     68  48  68  56 /  20   0  20 100
Columbia       76  52  73  60 /   0  10  50  90
Cookeville     70  51  68  57 /  20  10  30 100
Jamestown      67  49  66  55 /  20  10  20 100
Lawrenceburg   76  52  74  59 /   0   0  40  80
Murfreesboro   75  52  72  59 /   0  10  50 100
Waverly        70  51  68  58 /   0  10  70 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens