111
FXUS64 KOHX 111736
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1129 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

- Low chance for precipitation tonight into Friday morning along
  the upper Cumberland. Relatively warm Friday afternoon. No
  impacts expected.

- Another cold front will impact the region this weekend, bringing
  the coldest air of the season Saturday night through Monday
  morning.

- Widespread lows in the teens to single digits forecast Saturday
  and Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Well, after the dry air won out on the Plateau last night, leaving
them with not only no snow, but barely any clouds, we`re on to a
quiet couple of days across the mid-state. We`ll have a mix of sun
and high clouds today and temperatures are expected to warm into the
40s for most this afternoon with a lot less wind than we had
yesterday. Of note, models do suggest Pickett and Fentress getting
clipped this evening with some light snow/flurries. Not real worried
about any impacts with temperatures remaining just above freezing at
the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

I`m just gonna throw this out there. If you like the warmer
temperatures, you had better get outside tomorrow and enjoy them
because you`re not going to like what`s coming. With southerly to
southwesterly flow, Friday`s afternoon highs look to reach well into
the 50s. This should be about 5 degrees above normal for this time
of year. Then, two fronts will swing through here. The first will be
completely dry and push temperatures a little cooler on Saturday,
then the second. This second is going to be associated with a CP air
mass straight outta Canada. We`ve been sitting around all morning
discussing the reasons it won`t get as cold as I`m about to tell you
and then the NBM doubled down with its latest run, pushing
temperatures even colder. So, a second cold front is expected to
push through Middle TN Saturday night. With it, there is the
potential for some light snow east of I-65. A dusting? Maybe a
quarter inch in a few spots. However, it`s these temperatures
that have my attention. High of 22 on Sunday at BNA? And you know
that`s one of the warmer spots in Middle TN. On top of that, the
wind. The pressure gradient tightens up well behind the front and
on top of morning lows in the teens, Apparent Temperatures will be
single digits (some negative values along the KY-TN state line in
the morning) most, if not all day. Now, the wind can be a
limiting factor, too. Because of the wind and sun that`s expected,
we may not see highs Sunday THAT cold. But, still in the 20s,
with feels-like temps in the teens, for sure. Fortunately, the
winds die down Sunday evening, but that`s when we get the full
brunt of the cold air. Monday morning -- without wind -- lows are
now progged to fall into the single digits on the mercury to
around 10 closer to the Alabama state line. NBM probs show a
70-90% of this occurring Monday morning. Needless to say,
precautions will need to be taken Sunday and Monday morning if you
plan to be outside. Plan to check in on elderly and to bring pets
inside.

For some context, the record lowest high on December 14th (Sunday)
is 21 degrees set in 1917. Also, we`re still quite a ways off record
lows for December 15th. That stands at -2F set in 1901.

The rest of next week temperatures recover. We should be well back
into the 50s this time next week with at least a shot of rain back
in the forecast Wednesday or Thursday. Interestingly enough, some of
our global models show this as a low chance, so we may be pretty dry
for at least the next week, if not more.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR across Middle TN terminals today with variable mid to high
level clouds at times. Winds are backing from the W to the S this
afternoon at around 5-7 kts. Kept LLWS in for BNA, MQY, and CKV
with expected approaching front and LLJ. I also added a brief
period of LLWS to SRB/CSV towards the end of the period. Another
day of VFR conditions Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  37  56  31 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    44  37  53  29 /  20  10   0   0
Crossville     39  29  51  29 /  10  20  10   0
Columbia       47  35  58  29 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     39  32  52  29 /  10  20  10   0
Jamestown      37  30  50  29 /  20  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   47  35  57  30 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  34  57  30 /  10  10   0   0
Waverly        44  36  54  29 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Cravens