851
FXUS64 KOHX 270529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1129 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Cooler temperatures persist through Thanksgiving with highs in
  the 40s and lows in the upper-teens to mid-20s.

- High rain chances return this weekend with slightly warmer
  temperatures. Precipitation chances persist into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Temperatures will continue to fall overnight, but not reach their
full potential because of a deck of clouds moving into middle
Tennessee from the west. For the Thanksgiving holiday, maybe add a
jacket to your outfit as highs will only get into the 40s and winds
could be a bit gusty at times. Dry conditions will prevail into the
start of the weekend, with temperatures well below freezing
overnight and in the 40s and 50s during the day. Remember the 4 Ps:
pets, people, plants, and pipes as we go into these colder nights!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend,
bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks
to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east
overnight into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance has a
20 - 40% chance of seeing greater than half an inch of QPF through
Sunday night, and a <10% chance of over an inch. This trough will
bring another shot of cold air as we enter the first few weeks of
December.

From here, things get a bit muddy. The overall pattern will remain
on the active side, with medium chances for precipitation through
the extended. Guidance is saying yes it looks like there will be
another trough in the first week of December that comes through.
However, the specifics, like placement, type, and timing, remain
inconsistent from run to run. So while this is something to watch as
we get closer in time, it`s a bit hard to say anything with
certainty right now. It does look like there is a chance for wintry
precipitation next week, a small one, but again, too inconsistent to
say anything right now. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more
clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Winds will remain steady around 5kts overnight with not VIS or
CIG issues (VFR through the TAF period). After daybreak tomorrow
gusts to around 20kts will return, but expect a persistent
northwest wind through tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      35  48  28  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    32  46  25  43 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     28  41  20  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       34  48  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     31  43  22  40 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      30  41  22  37 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   33  47  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   34  47  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        33  45  26  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....05