813
FXUS64 KOHX 051712
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1112 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1108 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Some slick spots are possible through early morning,
  particularly on bridges and overpasses. Be cautious when
  travelling.

- Low to medium chances for light precipitation on Sunday.

- Continued below-normal temperatures are forecast through the
  next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The bulk of wintry precip has exited east of the CWA with only a
few bands remaining across the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures the whole evening have hovered between 32-36 degrees,
and most of the fallen frozen precip has melted upon contact with
the surface. A few areas along the TN/KY got a dusting of snow,
some up to a half-inch. The main concern moving into the overnight
hours will be the potential for icy spots to develop, especially
in areas along and north of I-40. The good news is temperatures
don`t look to drop too much more from where they are right now,
maybe 3 or 4 more degrees. The coldest spots tonight will be
across the northwest where upper 20s are forecast. Main takeaway:
if you have to travel tonight, use caution and be on the lookout
for patchy black ice and remember that bridges and overpasses are
the first to freeze. Be careful out there.

We will see a bump in temperatures tomorrow, but it will still be
chilly with lingering cloud over. Most areas will reach near or just
above 40 degrees with overnight lows falling below freezing again
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1057 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Things stay dry and a little warmer Saturday with height rises
moving over the southeast. Cloud cover will stick around, though, we
remain under a general longwave troughing pattern. Our next
distrubance moves through Sunday, and at this time the surface low
associated with it looks rather weak. Rain chances are currently
only around 30% areawide during the day Sunday with precip coming to
an end by Monday morning. A cold front will push through with
this system, dropping temperatures 10 degrees from Sunday to
Monday with highs Monday very similar to what we`ve felt the last
2 days, in the 40s. As colder air ushers in behind the departing
front, wraparound moisture could result in a few snow showers
along the northern portion of the Cumberland Plateau Monday
morning. This scenario currently looks unlikely as NBM
probabilities only yield a 10% chance of a dusting at this time.
Things will dry out for at least the first half of the week and we
will undergo a warming trend with temperatures warming back into
the mid 50s by Wednesday. Our next chance for rain appears to come
next Wednesday night/Thursday as another disturbance embedded
withing the trough swings through the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low cigs will remain in place through the TAF period. For western
terminals we should see IFR cigs rise to MVFR for a time this
afternoon but will lower back down to IFR this evening and into
LIFR overnight. LIFR cigs remain over the Plateau into tomorrow
morning. Cigs will start to come up after 15z but will still
remain in the MVFR/IFR category. Light northerly winds under 5
knots becoming more westerly this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  30  50  35 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    43  28  48  33 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     40  28  45  29 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       42  28  50  32 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     40  29  46  31 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      40  27  45  29 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   42  29  50  32 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   42  29  49  32 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        41  27  48  32 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller