843
FXUS64 KOHX 220459
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1059 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1035 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms through early
  Saturday morning. A couple of strong thunderstorms cannot be
  ruled out tonight.

- Another high chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night
  through Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures lasting into early next week, then turning
  sharply colder by Thanksgiving.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR OVERNIGHT SEVERE STORM THREAT
... Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A cluster of storms is approaching Land-between-the-Lakes, just
ahead of a cold front that is poised to sweep across Middle
Tennessee overnight. The mid state remains under a marginal risk
of severe storms, with straight-line winds the main threat; the
tornado risk is now less than 2%. The existing storms are occuring
in a band of ~1,000 J/kg CAPE. The HRRR brings the cells up to
around Clarksville, then weakening thereafter owing to decreasing
instability. So the severe threat will continue to diminish as we
head into the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Clouds have blanketed the skies over Middle Tennessee this evening.
A line of storms is approaching Stewart county currently, this will
be our severe threat for the evening. A marginal risk (level 1 out
of 5) but still something to watch, especially being an overnight
risk. We`re pretty saturated, however, and cloud cover has been an
issue all day. See the Mesoscale update for more information on the
threat specifically.

Lows tonight will be a bit warmer: closer to 60 degrees and the
upper 50s. Once the cold front moves through Saturday, temperatures
will drop into the 40s for lows. Not much of a difference for highs
post-frontal, but the airmass should feel drier which will help it
feel cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy fog will continue to be a threat through the beginning of the
work week in the morning hours, so use caution on your commutes.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives in the forecast
beginning Monday morning. A low pressure system looks to pass to our
north, with a cold front extending south into the midstate.
Currently, it`s hard to say if there will be any severe weather with
this system, but it doesn`t look promising right now. More on the
marginal side in the guidance if anything, thanks to weak CAPE and
paltry lapse rates continuing to be the norm in forecast soundings
across the area. A high pressure system moves in after this system,
leaving dry conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday. The cold front
with the aforementioned low looks to be stronger, with low
temperatures dropping into the 20s and 30s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A line of storms is approaching CKV as a cold front makes it way
toward Middle Tennessee. We`ve included TEMPO TS/CBs for CKV, then
PROB30 TS/CBs for BNA and MQY owing to the HRRR showing the cells
weakening once they pass CKV. CSV and SRB are just showers. We`ll
have to deal with low clouds after the cold front passes through,
and ceilings will be slow to erode during the day tomorrow owing
to lingering low-level moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  69  45  66 /  60  10   0   0
Clarksville    57  64  42  63 /  70   0   0   0
Crossville     57  67  42  61 /  80  30   0   0
Columbia       61  72  45  65 /  60  10   0   0
Cookeville     59  67  45  61 /  80  20   0   0
Jamestown      57  65  43  59 /  80  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   61  72  46  65 /  60  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  71  45  64 /  60  10   0   0
Waverly        57  65  43  64 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Rose