366
FXUS64 KOHX 050453
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1053 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the
  Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10" and
  snow accumulations up to an inch.

- Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN
  through roughly 2AM. Some slick spots may develop tonight. Be
  cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state.

- Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

It`s a cold, cloudy day across middle Tennessee. Moisture from an
inverted trough along the Gulf Coast will provide our rain this
afternoon and evening, with timing looking to start around 3PM. As
this rain continues to linger across the mid-state, cold air will
begin to mix with the rain, leading to wintry mix in areas along
and north of I-40. Trend with this system continue to go up, which
lends to more confidence in wintry and mixed precipitation
occurring.

Diving into specifics, it looks like all modes of wintry
precipitation will be possible overnight. Freezing rain
probabilities continue to increase on the cumberland plateau, where
the winter weather advisory has been in place. The second area
freezing rain probabilities continue to rise is in the intersection
of Williamson, Dickson, and Hickman counties. Probabilities for
freezing rain are less here than on the plateau, but still a notable
increase for the surrounding areas. As of now, probabilities for
>0.01" of freezing rain are up to 70-80% on the Cumberland Plateau,
30-50% in that eastern hot spot I mentioned earlier, and 10-30% on
the I-40 corridor in between. If we bump that up to a tenth of an
inch, 30-50% probability of seeing over 0.1" on the Plateau, 10-20%
chance in the west, and <20% in between. Thankfully, there are no
probabilities for exceeding a quarter of an inch of ice in Middle
Tennessee. As for snow, the greatest chance of seeing accumulating
snow over half an inch is on the Cumberland plateau in the winter
weather advisory. That area could see up to one inch of snow by
tomorrow morning.

Friday morning, precipitation ends and temperatures will warm into
the 40s, which will help with travel conditions across the mid-
state. Once we get into Friday, the day should be relatively quiet
in the aftermath of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Saturday will be dry but cloudy as the next system approaches on
Sunday. Widespread low rain chances overspread the mid-state, with
more cold air following behind it. Could see some wrap around
snowflakes on Monday, but those chances are low and the
accumulations would be nothing. Warmth will return into next week,
with highs in the 50s expected mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Most of the evening`s precipitation has transitioned onto the
Cumberland Plateau and adjacent areas, so we`ve left -RASN in the
TAFs for KCSV and KSRB during the initial forecast period. Look
for ceilings to continue to deteriorate overnight across all of
Middle Tennessee, with IFR or LIFR conditions prevailing well into
the day Friday, along with considerable overnight and early
morning fog. Winds will remain light/calm thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      32  42  31  50 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    26  41  28  47 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     32  41  29  45 /  90   0   0   0
Columbia       32  42  29  50 /  80   0   0   0
Cookeville     32  40  30  45 /  90   0   0   0
Jamestown      30  39  29  45 /  90   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   32  42  29  49 /  90   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   32  42  29  49 /  90   0   0   0
Waverly        27  40  27  47 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TNZ010-011-
031>034-065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Rose