Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 082149
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
349 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Although some sunshine filtered though the high thin clouds today,
it was still a chilly day across the area with temps 5 to 15 degrees
lower than yesterday afternoon`s temps. Despite continued high
clouds overnight and a light north wind, lows will drop to the
upper teens in most areas. Don`t expect a great warmup on Friday
as cold air continues to pour in from the north ahead of an
advancing sfc high pressure sliding through the central U.S. Highs
Friday won`t exceed the 30s. Friday night`s lows might be a tad
lower than tonight`s because winds will drop off as the sfc ridge
settles in over KY and TN. Expect teens for most areas.

Daytime temps will increase a few degrees Saturday but the better
warmup...e.g., 50s...will occur Sunday thanks to brisk southerly
flow on the back side of the departing sfc high pressure center.
Increased moisture and an approaching upper level disturbance will
bring rain chances to the region Sunday through Monday...with the
greatest chances on Sunday night. Rainfall totals should be less
than 1/2 inch.

Forecast confidence decreases by the middle of next week with
significant differences between the more aggressive/colder GFS and
the less aggressive/warmer ECMWF. In general, though, expect
another cold front by Wednesday as a strong sfc high pressure
center moves southeast from the northern Rockies into the Ohio
Valley. This front will help bring another chance of light
precipitation to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday...with temps
low enough to allow for a light rain/snow mix. It will be much
colder behind this system with daytime max temps stuck down in the
30s both Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR/SKC conditions expected thru 09/18Z. Although iso at times
sfc gusts to 15kts maybe possible especially thru 08/23Z per
diurnal influences interacting with sfc pressure gradient, on the
whole, sustained wind speeds should be in the 8-10kt range as
broad sfc ridging influences continue to build into the mid state
region. Swly upper level flow supporting bkn ci will become more
nwly orientated and potentially drier after broad upper level
trough passage across region by 09/12Z. With all this in mind, for
concise simplicity concerns, addressed forecasts at all terminals
within a one line forecasting framework.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      20  35  19  41  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    17  32  17  40  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
Crossville     17  31  16  38  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Columbia       19  36  19  42  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   20  36  19  42  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waverly        18  33  18  41  30 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......49
AVIATION........31


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