Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231108
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SQUEEZING OUT A FEW LIGHT
-SHRA THAT MAY IMPACT CKV THIS MORNING AND WILL MENTION VCSH
THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT ALL AIRPORTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH IS SLIDING JUST EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS TODAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE MIDDLE TENNESSEE ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAYS HIGHS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND ALLOW FOR MORE WAA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP IN SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH WILL ALSO INCREASE WAA FOR THOSE DAYS AS
WELL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY...THE TROUGH SLIDES NNE TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY. AS STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...THIS TROUGH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND KEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
POSSIBILITIES...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE LIKELY POPS NOW INTO TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PUTS MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AFTER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND BEGIN TO
DEVIATE EVEN MORE BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
PICTURE...BUT HAVE LOWER SCHC/CHC POPS IN TO FINISH OFF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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