000
FXUS64 KOHX 221831
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
131 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

A wide band of showers has developed across Middle Tennessee early
this afternoon. Additional activity is occurring farther
upstream, just on the other side of the Ohio River in the vicinity
of a surface boundary that is approaching Middle Tennessee.
Latest HRRR shows the activity persisting throughout the
afternoon, and even increasing late this afternoon and into the
evening as the front pushes into Middle Tennessee. Most of the
cells will diminish by 06Z, with some lingering showers mainly
across eastern and southern Middle Tennessee tomorrow morning
before the front finally exits the mid state. There is a marginal
risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening, but the
potential for severe activity is quite limited. Expect cooler
temperatures beginning tomorrow as post-frontal air filters into
the mid state, and below normal temperatures will persist right
through the end of the forecast period. The remainder of the week
looks to be dry, so we won`t see any appreciable rain chance until
the weekend as deeper moisture drifts up from the south in
advance of a tropical system coming onshore along the western Gulf
of Mexico. At this time, it appears that the tropical system will
have a more direct impact on Middle Tennessee next Thursday and
Friday, and already the GFS and ECMWF are coming into good
agreement over placement and timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Deteriorating conditions is trend for this period as a front
approaches later today into tonight...and passes overnight.
Showers/storms currently developing expected to become bit more
widespread late afternoon/early evening. Will include vcnty
until mid afternoon...then ramp up chance toward 00z. Not much
precipitation expected overnight but MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys likely
to form.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  84  62  83  61 /  70  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    67  81  58  81  58 /  50  10   0   0   0
Crossville     68  78  57  77  56 /  70  30  10   0   0
Columbia       71  83  61  83  60 /  70  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   70  83  61  82  59 /  70  20   0   0   0
Waverly        69  81  60  81  59 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........07