Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 070942
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

(TODAY THRU TUES)

SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT UPSTREAM STARTS TO MOVE OUR WAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST WILL START TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD. NUMEROUS
IMPULSES...WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL RIDE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE WELL
BEHIND THE FROPA. AS THE VERTICAL THERMAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEGINS
TO GET COLDER AT ALL LEVELS...WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE MORE FAVORABLY TIME FOR A RAIN TO
SNOW TRANSITION WILL BE MONDAY MORNING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING SHARPLY BY 18Z MON. A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF THE TEMP
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 800 FT
AGL BY 18Z ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDDLE TN.

RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND WILL OCCUR
MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2
INCHES LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE PLATEAU. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH SO AS TO ISSUE A 3RD PERIOD ADVISORY. WILL THEREFORE
COVER THE MATTER WITH AN SPS. OTW...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID
STATE...LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER ONLY SEEING A DUSTING.

ON TUESDAY...A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST A
FEW RESIDUAL FLURRIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG OUR PLATEAU.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...TODAY WILL CERTAINLY BE THE MOST
COMFORTABLE DAY AS OUR HIGHS REACH INTO THE 50S. THEN...FOLLOWING
THE AFOREMENTIONED FROPA...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY
MORNING AND WILL NOT WARM MUCH AT ALL DURING THE DAY. CONTINUED
RATHER COLD FOR MON NT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S AND
HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

(WED THRU SAT)

OTHER THAN A QUICK CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MIGHT BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE TO MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE FRI
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI
NIGHT...WITH NO INDICATIONS OF ANY ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AT THIS
POINT...IN A NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME...MID STATE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY WED THRU SAT. THIS THE RESULT...OTHER THAN THE
EXCEPTION FOR FRI NIGHT...OF A DRY NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES N TO S ACROSS MID STATE USHERING IN
REINFORCING DRY COLD CANADIAN BASED AIR MASSES INTO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MOST PRONOUNCED INFLUX OF A CANADIAN AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED INTO THE REGION ON WED...WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE
MID 30S W TO MID 20S E. HOWEVER...EVEN AS ABOVE MENTIONED REINFORCING
DRY CANADIAN COLD AIR MASSES MOVE INTO THE REGION...SOME MODIFICATIONS
WILL OCCUR TO THEIR COLD AIR MASS NATURES AS THEY MOVE S INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...BUT WITH SOME MODIFICATION
TO HIGHS FROM WED AFTERNOON EXPECTED. HIGHS ON THU THRU SAT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...MID TO UPPER 30S PLATEAU
REGION. AS FOR LOWS...THEY WILL BE ON AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON WED MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS...WARMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...BY SAT MORNING.
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT RULES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
TO CALM OVERNIGHT BUT WILL PICK UP AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. SW GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS
ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR KCKV. BY 00Z MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS START
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE STATE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      55  34  37  24  31 /   0  50  60  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    54  33  34  22  30 /  10  50  50  30  20
CROSSVILLE     51  35  35  21  26 /   0  50  70  50  40
COLUMBIA       54  34  38  24  32 /   0  40  40  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   54  34  39  24  31 /   0  30  40  30  20
WAVERLY        54  33  36  22  30 /  10  40  50  30  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................31


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