Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031059
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
559 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. THERE IS A FAR OUTSIDE CHANCE OF ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT PRECLUSION
FROM PREVAILING LINES.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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