Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 171110
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
610 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Crisp, cool morning across Middle Tennessee with temperatures
ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints also remain
in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and with light winds, clear skies,
and low dewpoint depressions, fog has developed along many area
rivers and lakes this morning per GOES-16 nighttime microphysics
satellite imagery. Have thus added mention of patchy fog to grids
and zones along the major river basins and lakes through 14Z.
Also removed mention of patchy frost from all areas outside the
northern Plateau for this morning as dewpoints look to remain too
high for frost formation except possibly in that area.

Another chilly night is anticipated for Tuesday night with
surface high pressure ridge extending from Tennessee
northeastward. Models appear too warm for low temperatures
tonight, possibly due to the influence of some cirrus moving over
the region, but these clouds do not appear thick enough to keep
temps from dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s once again and
have undercut guidance. Cannot rule out some patchy frost on the
northern Plateau tonight but with dewpoints staying well above
freezing frost formation appears unlikely. However, patchy fog is
quite likely again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning along
area rivers and lakes due to water temperatures still warm in the
70s, mostly clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoint
depressions.

Beautiful fall weather still on tap the rest of the week with a
slow, gradual warmup but continued cool nights and mild to warm
days with no precipitation through Saturday. Over the weekend,
00Z models show a very large, deep trough developing over the
eastern CONUS, which will shove a strong cold front through the
area from Sunday into Sunday night. Despite some differences in
the overall pattern, GFS and ECMWF are in much better consensus
now versus previous runs, and will show chance pops from Sunday
into Sunday night with pops decreasing from west to east Monday
into Monday night. Precip chances will likely need to be raised
in later forecasts once timing gets pinned down, as strength of
front suggests categorical pops will be warranted. After the
current forecast period, global models suggest the coldest air so
far this fall season may arrive with GFS and Euro depicting 850mb
temps dropping to near or below 0C.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Some patch fog along area rivers, lakes, and waterways will
linger through 14Z. The fog has approached BNA and MQY but there
should be enough light wind to not be an issue. For
BNA/MQY/CKV/and CSV it will be a wind forecast for the next 24
hours. Expect NE/E wind...becoming light SE/S by 12Z Wednesday.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........12



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