060
FXUS64 KOHX 151621
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue through the
  week.

- Although the severe weather risk is low, heavy rainfall, gusty
  winds, and frequent lightning will be possible.

- Maximum heat index values each day will exceed 100 degrees each
  day west of the Cumberland Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The warm and muggy pattern continues. The daily showers and storms
have initiated and will continue through the afternoon. The CAMs
have not been much help pertaining to the convective coverage the
last couple of days, and they may be underplaying it again today.
PWAT values continue to be 1.7-2" Some localized flooding will
continue to be a threat given the rain rates and weak shear. The
severe threat will remain low with the weak shear and water loaded
updrafts. Some gusty winds will be possible with the strongest
storms but will likely remain below severe limits. Patchy fog
will develop after midnight tonight with lows in the low to mid
70s. Wednesday will be similar to today. Afternoon heat index
values are expected to top out at 100-105 both days but will be
dependent on storm timing and coverage. We`ll have to keep an eye
on the coverage of convection on Wednesday. If the coverage is not
too widespread, heat index values may exceed 105 along and west
of I-65. Dew points increase a couple degrees on Thursday with
values in the mid to upper 70s. If this pans out, areas west of
the plateau will see max heat indicies of 105-110.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The pattern remains unchanged in the extended period. Diurnal
activity will continue with daily storm chances. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Most of the early morning radiation fog has dissipated, with only
some residual restrictions to visibility at KSRB, and that won`t
be for much longer. We do once again expect overnight fog at KCSV
and KSRB, which has been the way of things in our current air
mass. At any rate, the surface ridge that has been lined up to the
east of Middle Tennessee has retrograded so that there`s a little
more subsidence across the mid state, and therefore lower storm
chances. For now, we`ve left TS out of the TAFs. This could change
if convection develops near one of the terminals, so just know
that afternoon storms are still possible, just more isolated in
coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  76  95  76 /  30  20  30   0
Clarksville    91  74  92  76 /  40  30  30   0
Crossville     89  69  89  70 /  30  10  50  20
Columbia       93  73  94  74 /  20  10  30   0
Cookeville     89  72  90  72 /  30  20  40  20
Jamestown      89  70  90  71 /  40  20  50  20
Lawrenceburg   92  72  93  73 /  20  10  30   0
Murfreesboro   94  74  95  74 /  30  10  40   0
Waverly        91  73  92  74 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose