951
FXUS61 KOKX 081839
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
139 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west into Tuesday. The high
weakens and shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the
north Tuesday night. A stronger low approaches on Wednesday,
passing north Wednesday night into Thursday and sending a cold
front through the area. High pressure will then build from the
northern Plains through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast
from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast coast
Friday afternoon. An Alberta clipper low will pass close by
Friday night into Saturday morning, followed by Canadian high
pressure this weekend. An Arctic cold front will move through on
Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Bitterly cold tonight with temperatures falling into the
  single digits and teens; coldest air since February for most.

Higher cloud deck lingers over the region through this evening
as low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast, though this should
begin to erode overnight. Closer to home, a 1030 mb surface
high pressure centered near the eastern Great Lakes builds over
the region, with winds lightening into this evening as the
pressure gradient relaxes.

The lighter flow could allow for more efficient radiative
cooling overnight and continued to blend in MOS guidance to
better capture this potential. Either way, very cold, better
than 15 degrees below climo, with temperatures falling back into
the single digits inland, and the teens along the coast. Given
the weak winds, wind chills will be close to actual temperatures
and no cold headlines warranted. Dry conditions prevail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Gradual warm up into midweek, with highs back in the 40s on
  Wednesday.

* A couple of quick moving low pressure systems brush or impact
  the area Tuesday night through early Thursday. Best chance for
  wintry precipitation will be northwest of NYC on Wednesday,
  but even these locations likely change to plain rain.

High pressure over the region shifts offshore on Tuesday, and SW
flow sets up by the afternoon. This will help modify air mass in
place, first for coastal areas from the marine influence with
SSTs still around 50, then regionwide by Wednesday with persistent
WAA. So while Tuesday remains unseasonably cold, temperatures
climb above the freezing mark into the mid to upper 30s along
the coast by afternoon, with upper 20s inland.

A more active pattern begins to develop into midweek as a series of
shortwaves move east in the progressive upper flow, introducing a
couple of chances for precipitation. First system quickly
passes through New England Tuesday night, though limited
moisture and weak forcing this far south should keep most dry.
Best chance of seeing any light snow is across southeast CT,
though PoPs here sit at only chance (25-30%), and wouldn`t be
surprised if most remain entirely dry. Any coastal precip could
mix with or fall as light rain given marginal BL temperatures,
but again, QPF is light, a few hundredths at most.

This first system quickly scoots away north and east, with a
more potent shortwave following behind it Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This will bring a better chance for a more
widespread precipitation, though with a warming column, the
bulk of the precip looks to fall as rain, particularly along the
coast. North and west of NYC, ptype could start out as snow, or
a mix, until the WAA wins out enough to force a changeover to
plain rain. Any accumulation is likely either light or negligible
before the changeover and temperatures Wednesday look to get
into the 40s for most. Wind speeds increase Wednesday afternoon
with the associated LLJ moving overhead, and leaned on NBM90 for
winds in this period given the guidance`s low bias with these
regimes. After the initial wave, dry slot likely comes in later
Wednesday, and any lingering precip likely tapers as a light
rain as conditions dry out further Wed Night into thursday
behind the attendant cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal
  Thursday through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week.

* A clipper low will pass to the south Friday night into Saturday
  morning, with a chance of light snow. This still does not look
  like a significant winter weather event.

It will be brisk and cold Thursday into Friday after a cold frontal
passage, and as the pressure gradient tightens up between high
pressure building to our southwest and low pressure intensifying
over eastern Canada. Winds relax Friday afternoon as the high moves
off the Southeast coast. ECMWF and its ensemble are consistent on
the idea of a clipper low passing to the south Fri night/Sat but not
on its track or strength, with the 07/12Z cycle showing the low
passing just south of the CWA and delivering a light snowfall
capable of meeting advisory criteria inland, while the 00Z cycle
shows northern stream energy much slower to enter the picture,
allowing shortwave ridging in its advance over Ontario to shunt the
low even farther south, with minimal snowfall. Incoming 12Z ECMWF is
in between these two ideas, so less suppressed but still lighter on
potential snowfall. So the overall idea is that the energy with this
system looks too disjointed to be capable of delivering more than a
sub-advisory light snowfall.

More importantly, colder air will come in behind this system for
early next week, with already below normal temps dropping to 10 or
more degrees below normal for Sunday and Monday. e.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and settle
over the terminals tonight.

VFR prevails.

N to NNW winds with gusts up to around 25 kt. Can not rule out a few
occasional gusts to near 30 kt. N winds begin to diminish this
afternoon, with gusts ending towards 20-21z as high pressure builds
in from the west. Winds fall below 10kt this evening and become
light and variable early Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust to 30 kt can not be ruled through early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late day/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the
afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20-
25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty N winds diminish into late day and conditions lower below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria on non ocean waters by late
afternoon and on the ocean by early evening as high pressure
builds over the region.

A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. A brief period of gales remains
possible on the ocean Tuesday evening and night, before a better
chance of gales develops Wednesday afternoon and evening. SCA
conditions likely on all waters at the least during this period.
SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching
minimal gale force. Seas Thu AM start out at 8-11 ft E of Fire
Island Inlet and 5-8 ft W of there, gradually subsiding to 5-6
ft E and 3-5 ft W by daybreak Fri.

Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean late
Fri into Fri night will be short lived, as winds increase with
passage of a low to our south, and cold air advection in its wake.
SCA cond likely on the ocean late Fri night, then developing on all
waters Sat afternoon as flow veers from W to NW. Some gusts on the
ocean once again could approach minimal gale force Sat night as seas
build to 4-7 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR