477
FXUS61 KOKX 071853
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
253 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front swings through during the first half of Wednesday. A
large dome of high pressure builds Wednesday night into Thursday.
Canadian high pressure settles over the area for the end of the
week, and slides offshore over the weekend. Low pressure develops
south of the region late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SW flow of unseasonably mild and humid continues through tonight
in advance of an approaching cold front. Most places will have
dewpoint readings in the lower, and perhaps a few middle 60s which
is quite anomalous for this time of year. With advancing cloud cover
along the frontal boundary temperatures will be quite warm for this
time of year as the cold front is not expected to get into far NW
portions of the region until around or just before sunrise. As far
as PoPs, much of the region will be dry through the entire evening,
with only far W / NW sections having more than a negligible chance
of showers before midnight. Immediately after midnight PoPs rise
sharply from west to east, with widespread likely and categorical
PoPs for much of the region by 06z. This is when the steadier rain
moves into a good portion of the area. There remains some model
disagreement as to how soon the steadier rain presses further east
in the eastern most portions of the area. Chose to take an NBM blend
for the most part in terms of precip / PoP timing across the region.
BUFKIT soundings (most higher res members) suggestive of some
instability (100-400 j/kg) with Showalter indices getting to around
0, thus introduce isolate thunder wording towards sunrise / early
Wednesday morning. Thus, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but
should be the exception rather than the norm.

The cold front pivots through the city into the morning commute.
Immediately behind the front shower activity lightens with a quick
wind shift to the N and NNW. The front is expected to move through
the city in the 13-14z timeframe, and off the eastern end of LI and
So. CT towards 16-17z. With any steadier or heavier rain shutting
off at those times. A few lingering showers may persist for an
additional couple of hours but will be lighter in intensity and more
scattered in nature. Gusty N to NW winds should dry things out
quickly into the afternoon, and the late afternoon well east. The
unseasonably humid and warm weather abruptly comes to an end with
temperatures a good 10 degrees cooler into the afternoon. It turns
more crisp and fall like for the afternoon and into the evening.
Skies clear quickly from west to east during the afternoon.
Rainfall totals look to be on the order of 0.50 to 1.0 inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clear skies with more of an autumn feel during the period. A much
drier and cooler Canadian air mass will dominate with a stiff breeze
out of the N continuing into the day on Thursday. With the wind
staying up Wednesday night temperatures fall back primarily into the
40s. On Thursday sunny skies with high pressure continuing to build.
As the high gets closer later in the afternoon the winds should
start to diminish some, with a more noticeable relaxing of the winds
towards early evening. Temperatures will actually be below normal
with highs struggling to get out of the upper 50s in some spots,
otherwise high temperatures will be in the lower 60s. Dew point
readings will be all the way down into the 30s, so a much drier fall
air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold to start Thu ngt with a mid 1030s high building over the
region. A freeze is possible for the normally coldest locations. The
NBM was followed, but those numbers will be too high if the timing
of the high verifies.

Fair wx Fri thru the day on Sat with this high transitioning across
the area. Highs on Fri a solid 5 degrees or more blw climo. Temps
and dewpoints increase on Sat with an ely flow off the Atlc
developing. An increase in high clouds are likely as well from low
pres to the S.

Low pres spins up along the stalled front off the SE CONUS over the
weekend. This low gradually strengthens by Sun, with chances for
rain spreading up the E coast. The modeling suggests the low may
slowly track up the coast Mon into Tue, resulting in additional
chances for rain and increasing winds, especially at the coast. If
the low does get close enough to produce steady rains, would expect
high temps to end up lower than currently fcst. The NBM has been
followed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to gradually give way to an approaching
cold front through this evening. The front will then pass through
the area Wednesday morning.

Mainly VFR through the first half of tonight. Showers and MVFR/IFR
mainly after midnight, lingering into Wednesday morning, possibly
early afternoon for the eastern terminals. An isolated thunderstorms
is possible, but confidence is too low at this time to mention.

SW-S winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt into early this evening.
Gusts likely end at the inland terminals early, but should continue
or at least remain occasional at the coastal terminals. Winds become
NW in the morning. NW gusts behind cold front may be delayed by 2 to
3 hours from the current forecast.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind gusts may vary by 20 degrees this afternoon on either side of
180.

Timing of ceiling category changes and wind shifts overnight into
Wednesday morning may vary by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon: VFR. NW-N gusts around 20 kt.

Thursday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt, mainly in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain. NE gusts 20-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail on the ocean waters and the
south shore bays through tonight, and for much of Wednesday,
Wednesday night, and at least the first half of Thursday. More
marginal small craft conditions are likely for the eastern half of
LI Sound and the eastern bays of LI. A small craft advisory may
eventually be needed for these non-ocean zones at some point, but as
of now small craft advisory gusts appear to be more occasional. Late
Thursday afternoon conditions may fall below sca criteria, but
timing remains uncertain. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Thu ngt thru
the day on Sat due to high pres. Winds increase Sat ngt, with gales
possible on Sun as low pres strengthens to the S.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Despite rainfall late tonight into the first half of Wednesday,
there are no hydrologic concerns at this time throughout the
forecast period as dry antecedent conditions have prevailed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Light winds on Fri look to limit the cstl flood threat. Still, some
pockets of minor are possible due to the residual supermoon spring
tides.

There is a high degree of uncertainty as to how much low pressure to
the south early next week will impact the local area. Given
potential for fairly strong NE flow between the low and high
pressure to our north, there could be multiple rounds of widespread
flooding Sunday and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ345-353-
     355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...