890
FXUS61 KOKX 272045
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure remains north of the region with high
pressure well southwest of the region into Friday night.
Saturday high pressure to the south and west will build over the
region and quickly move off the New England coast Saturday
night. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes and into
eastern Canada on Sunday will send a cold front across the area
late in the day. High pressure then briefly follows on Monday,
giving way to low pressure approaching from the southwest Monday
night into Tuesday. High pressure builds in for the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure tracks slowly through southeastern Canada tonight
as a high builds to the west, through the northern plains to the
Gulf coast. A strong pressure gradient force will remain across
the region through tonight as weak cold advection continues.
With the strong mixing overnight lows will be rather uniform
across the region, in about a 5 degree range. Clearing is
expected as high clouds have already dissipated and any cumulus
will dissipate with the loss of daylight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points

* Low pressure remains over southeastern Canada Friday into
  early Saturday as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
  Dry weather continues.

* Strong and gusty winds Friday, but remaining below advisory
  levels. Gusts generally 30 to 40 mph, with occasional higher
  gusts possible.

* Temperatures remain below seasonal normal levels Friday
  through Saturday night.

Generally followed the NBM guidance with the exception of the
winds and wind gusts Friday through Friday night, using the
90th percentile for both.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Sunday will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures
  ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Cold frontal
  passage expected in the evening preceded/accompanied by some
  showers.

* Monday should be mainly dry and colder as high pressure builds in
  from the west. Below normal temperatures are expected through
  Thursday.

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

Global models are in good agreement with the timing of a cold
frontal passage Sunday evening that will be preceded by a period
of rain on Sunday and then a shot of colder air Sunday night into
Monday. However, an active southern branch of the polar jet will
send Pac energy quickly across the country Sunday into Tuesday,
which interacts with low pressure over the Gulf coast states. The
latter tracks across the Southeast and into the Mid Atlantic states
Monday night into Tuesday with the potential for secondary coastal
low development. The low then passes to the south and east of LI
Tuesday night. The exact track will be critical to precipitation
type with only a marginally cold airmass in place. The latest 12Z
GFS and ECMWF take the low close to the 40N...70W benchmark
Tuesday night. This is a track that often is more favorable for
snowfall and/or wintry weather across the forecast area. However,
with no blocking over the north Atlantic, surface high pressure
quickly lifts out to the Northeast ahead of the low. This will
allow the cold air to erode over the region and allow more of a
maritime influence. Right now, latest forecast calls for a
snow/rain mix at the coast transitioning to all rain, and snow
to a rain/snow mix inland. Ultimately, it will come down to how
quickly the cold air departs and the exact track of the low
passing to the southeast. Point being, it is too early to be
specific with any details, but does bear watching.

High pressure then follows for Wednesday into Thursday with below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong low pressure remains over southeastern Canada whith high
pressure well southwest of the region through Friday.

VFR through the TAF period.

West flow 15 to 20 kt, with gusts mainly 25 to 30 kt through
this evening, with a brief gust to 35 kt possible. Winds and
gusts begin to diminish toward sunset. W winds then increase
once again around 12Z-14Z Friday with gusts upwards of 30-35
kt. Some gusts to 40 kt are possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts upwards of 35 kt possible today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 20Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR. W flow 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt.

Saturday: VFR. NW flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: VFR in the morning then MVFR or lower with rain during the
afternoon and at night. S flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.

Tuesday: MVFR. Chance of rain/snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Strong and gusty west to northwest winds persist across the
forecast waters as deep low pressure remains over eastern Canada
and high pressure builds to the southwest. The low tracks
farther away from the region late Friday night into Saturday as
the high builds over the waters. With the gusty winds a SCA
remains in effect for all the waters through tonight. And with
strong gusts likely for Friday into Friday night a Gale Warning
remains for all the waters through Friday evening, except New
York Harbor where the Gale Warning ends 600 PM EST Friday.
Winds and gusts, along with ocean seas, will be diminishing
through Friday night from southwest to northeast as the high
builds into the waters. However, SCA conditions will be likely
through Friday night and then fall below advisory levels across
all the waters by midday Saturday. Winds and seas will then
remain below advisory levels through Saturday night as the high
moves off the New England coast by Sunday morning.

Increasing S flow ahead of a cold front Sunday into Sunday
evening could bring a return of SCA conditions, especially
across the ocean waters. Seas on the ocean are forecast to build
to 5 to 8 ft with gusts 25-30 kt. Wind gusts will be more
marginal at 20-25kt for the remaining waters. Winds diminish
after cold frontal passage Sunday night, with lingering 5-ft
seas on the ocean into Monday morning. High pressure will then
follow for Monday with sub-SCA conditions. A coastal low could
bring a return to SCA conditions on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Friday to midnight EST Friday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW