108
FXUS61 KOKX 021437
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
937 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region
through tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday.
High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a
cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then
pass to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak
high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No significant changes to the forecast.

Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until 10pm for
  Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Western Passaic Counties today.

* Coastal storm will bring an accumulating snow to interior
  portions of the local Tri-State, mainly north and west of
  I-287 in NJ and NY, and I-84/I-684 in S CT. After a brief
  start as wet snow or a rain/snow mix, plain rain for NYC and
  coastal areas.

Precip developing across the western half of the area with
mainly light snow for the interior and rain closer to the NYC
metro.

The low deepens as it traverses northeast, and ends up southeast
of Long Island this afternoon, and there is good model
agreement on this. However, the ptype forecast evolution
continues to be a challenge. Given the later precip start which
should allow additional time for PBL warming, and less overall
QPF, think the changeover may be quicker and the rain/snow line
pushes further inland this afternoon. So have opted to maintain
all snow across Orange County for much of the event, though
areas south of there will likely transition by early afternoon,
with NYC, Long Island and coastal CT remaining all cold rain. So
any accumulations of a very wet snow across the forecast area
have to occur on the early side of the system (save for Orange
County) before the eventual changeover to rain. In addition, as
the low departs this evening, some wet snow may mix in across
especially across the interior.

Temperatures should rise to above freezing for all but Orange
County by early afternoon, the upper 30s/lower 40s for NYC/NJ
metro, and as high as the upper 40s. Winds pick up in wake of
the departing low this afternoon/tonight, with NW winds 15-25
gusting up to 35 mph. The combo of snow load and winds could
result in a few downed tree branches/power outages mainly across
Orange County this afternoon/tonight. Refreezing of any
standing water is likely tonight as much of the area drops below
freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is
  about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well inland
to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat Fri
night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in progressive
quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled too strongly
and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite suppressed
00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a glancing
blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30 PoP for
all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles supportive of
light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then a transition
to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across
ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early
afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure developing along the Mid Atlantic coast today will
pass southeast of Long Island late today into this evening.

Precip developing from NYC metro on north and west and will
continue spreading east through 16z. Rain is expected along the
coast. At KHPN, a brief mix with light snow is possible, but
mainly rain is forecast. Inland Lower Hudson Valley terminals
will see snow, possibly moderate at times, into the early
afternoon. Some rain likely mixes in with the snow as the precip
ends late afternoon/early evening at KSWF.

Flight categories will lower to MVFR then IFR through the rest
of the morning. IFR then prevails this afternoon, with LIFR
likely at KSWF and briefly at other terminals near the coast
early to mid afternoon. Flight categories should gradually
improve to MVFR this evening then VFR tonight.

E-NE winds 5-10 kt this afternoon could shift SE-S at some
coastal terminals late this morning due to a weak front just
south of Long Island that may briefly lift into the area. Winds
as the low passes to the SE back N around 10 kt late this
afternoon, then become NW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt after
23Z-24Z, highest this evening and at the NYC metro/coastal
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Variability in wind direction expected the rest of the morning
as a coastal front remains in the vicinity. Winds may briefly
shift to the E or SE late morning before going back to the NE
and then N through the afternoon.

AMD still possible to fine tune flight categories.

Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt before 15Z.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR.

Friday night: Chance of MVFR in light snow late.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in light snow/rain, mainly in the
morning and mainly E of the NYC metros.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt
are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and
seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible with 0.5-1.5
inch of precipitation likely, especially with snowmelt and any
clogged drains with fallen leaves. Rainfall rates however are
not expected to exceed 0.5 inch/hr. This would be for a period
from mid morning to this evening.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067>069.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG/DS
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR