046
FXUS61 KOKX 022245
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
545 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region
through tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday.
High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a
cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then
pass to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak
high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Back edge of precip continues to push east through the rest of
the forecast area this evening, and should be east of Montauk by
around 8 PM. Precip type is mainly rain, however pockets of
freezing rain still possible over portions of northern New Haven
and Middlesex counties possible with an elevated warm nose
already shifted in. A special weather statement has been issued
to address this. A chance of a couple more snow
showers/flurries otherwise for an hour or two behind the main
line of precip. Temperatures fall below freezing across the area
tonight except maybe some sections of the city, so some
refreezing of standing water will be possible, mainly across the
interior where temps are already close to or below freezing.
Winds will increase tonight too as the pressure gradient
tightens over the area. NW winds 15-25 gusting up to 35 mph
anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is
  about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well inland
to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat Fri
night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in progressive
quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled too strongly
and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite suppressed
00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a glancing
blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30 PoP for
all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles supportive of
light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then a transition
to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across
ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early
afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will pass southeast of Long Island through this
evening. High pressure will then build to the southwest of the
area tonight through Wednesday.

IFR with rain will continue for most terminals with the
exception across interior Lower Hudson Valley where some snow or
a mixture of rain/snow is expected through 22z. KSWF could see a
brief period of FZRA mixed with snow before the precip ends
early this evening. Total snow accumulation at KSWF ranges from
2 to 4 inches.

Brief, local LIFR and moderate to locally heavy rain possible
across NYC metro and coastal terminals for the remainder of the
afternoon. Conditions will begin improving from west to east
into the evening with MVFR becoming likely. VFR conditions are
expected overnight, but may take longest to improve at KGON.

N-NNW winds 10-15 kt late this afternoon. An occasional gust to
20 kt possible, but will become frequent this evening, 20-25
kt. Gusts will likely continue through 07-10z with NW winds
remaining around 10 kt into Wednesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief LIFR ceiling (OVC004) possible through 22z.

Timing of improving flight categories this evening may be off by
1-3 hours.

Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at
night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light snow/rain in the morning,
mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt
are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and
seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE