161
FXUS61 KOKX 141431
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
931 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually builds through tonight before pushing
offshore into Saturday. A warm front approaches late Saturday
and pushes through Saturday night, followed quickly by a cold front
Sunday morning. High pressure builds in from the west Monday into
Tuesday and settles nearby into Thursday. A warm front may arrive
late Thursday or Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An energetic WNW flow regime will continue to prevail over the area
through today. This results in breezy and seasonably cool
conditions. Mainly clear conditions to start will give way to an
increase in cloud cover into the afternoon. Temperatures for
the afternoon will range mainly from the middle and upper 40s to
around 50.

For tonight any evening clouds should give way to primarily clear
skies. As high pressure builds from the southwest look for the
pressure gradient to relax resulting in a noticeably lighter NW flow.
This will allow some radiational cooling in spots. The winds may
stay up enough much of the night to preclude widespread frost, thus
went with patchy wording and thus no frost advisories at this time
with the growing season not yet officially over across the urban
portions of the area. It will be a cold night with lows in the
upper 20s across far northern portions of the area, to the 30s
across the city and the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A dry and calm start to the weekend as high pressure settles
directly overhead for Saturday morning. The high will then get
offshore during the afternoon as cloud increase from west to
east in advance of the next frontal system approaching from the
west and southwest. Much, if not all of the region remains dry
through the day with only a slight chance of late day rain
showers across western most portions of the area. Temperatures
will moderate some as it gets closer to normal with highs mainly
in the lower and middle 50s, with perhaps a few upper 40s
across northern most sections.

For Saturday evening rain should overspread the region quickly
as this next system is progressive and fast moving. Showers will
break out from west to east during the evening as the warm
front works through. A break in shower activity is likely with
the passage of the warm front. However, the cold front will
quickly follow as it approaches an moves through early Sunday
morning. Thus two pockets of rain are expected, one preceding
the warm front, and another preceding and along the cold front.
Rainfall amounts will be on the order of a tenth or two, to up
to a half inch.

The cold front should swing through my mid morning, maybe as
late as the late morning across far eastern portions of the
area. Clearing takes place quickly immediately behind the front
as a W wind picks up and becomes rather gusty by midday and into
the afternoon. A blustery and cool day with temperatures close
to or perhaps a couple of degrees above normal. Winds are likely
to gust to around 35 mph during the afternoon. A low level
strat-cumulus cloud deck is likely to from for the afternoon
resulting in sct to bkn cloud cover. The winds won`t be as
strong Sunday night, but will still gust at times with a
pressure gradient remaining in place with another low up into
the Labrador region of Canada and the region on the back side of
the low. There could very well be snow showers and snow squalls
to the NW with the low chance that a few snow showers or
flurries could get into far NW portions of the area Sunday
night. Lows Sunday night will be primarily in the 30s, and down
at freezing for N and NW interior locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* Breezy conditions are expected to begin the period on Monday,
  followed by the winds diminishing Monday night.

* Temperatures will be seasonably cool during the period.

Behind a cold frontal passage breezy conditions should continue
through much of the day Monday as low pressure deepens to our north
across SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our west.

Winds should start diminishing Monday night as the high pressure
moves closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft
through mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure
continues to be modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into
Tuesday night. NBM indicates just a slight chance late
Tuesday/Tuesday evening for extreme southern portions of the
forecast area as the northern edge of the precipitation field grazes
those areas. Though most areas, even those that have a slight chance
for rain, will be mainly dry.

High pressure builds in at the surface from the west on Wednesday as
upper level ridging from the Great Lakes region approaches. Model
solutions differ with amplitude and actual location due to
differences in the location of the low over the Canadian Maritimes.
A warm front may then approach the area during Thursday or Thursday
night, bringing the next chance for precipitation. NBM was closely
followed.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure exits north across the Canadian Maritimes today,
while high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest.

VFR. A few sprinkles or flurries could make their way into the
area late this afternoon/early evening, particularly for
terminals in the lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut,
but restrictions are not expected.

WNW-NW flow increases to 10-15kt with G20-25kt, then falling
off quickly in the evening, veering more NW/NNW at night. Flow
backs SW late Saturday morning into early afternoon as speeds
remain at or under 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional through midday.

Timing of frequent gusts developing could be off 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR through the day, MVFR or lower at night w/ rain.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain to start, improving to VFR by the
afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will linger into the afternoon on the
ocean waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient relaxes tonight
and into Saturday morning with sub advisory conditions returning
to the ocean by late evening. With the high settling directly
over the waters look for tranquil conditions to prevail Saturday
with only 1 foot ocean seas. However, as high pressure pushes
east and a frontal system starts to move through look for small
craft conditions to develop quickly on the ocean, and for all
non-ocean waters by Sunday morning. Behind a cold front a gusty
WNW flow prevails with at least a period of gale force wind
gusts looking likely across the ocean and perhaps all waters for
a time Sunday afternoon and night. Small craft conditions are
likely to extend into much of Monday as well, with sub advisory
conditions likely to return some time on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JE/JP
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE
HYDROLOGY...JE