177
FXUS61 KOKX 210831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure weakens today as it shifts farther offshore. Weak low
pressure then passes not too far to our south tonight into Saturday
morning. High pressure then builds back Saturday afternoon and  will
remain in control through early next week. The high moves offshore
on Tuesday followed by the next frontal system impacting the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure should build towards the
area next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will be moving farther out to sea today. Moisture
advection from the west leaves us with a mostly cloudy day, but
remaining dry. High temperatures today will be milder than those of
yesterday in spite of the cloud cover and near normal in the range
of 50-55 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Various models are now in better agreement compared to 24 hours ago
regarding the northern extent of the precip shield associated with
weak low pressure passing to our south tonight into Saturday
morning. Although the low itself is weak, upper divergence courtesy
of favorable positioning of a jet streak couplet should help bring
the likelihood of rainfall to roughly the southern half of the
forecast area. NBM 6-hour PoPs for late tonight matches this
thinking. Greatest chances of rain overall will be after midnight
tonight until mid-morning Saturday. No hydrologic impacts expected
as rain amounts likely remain below a quarter of an inch. High
pressure then builds back in for rest of Saturday with clearing and
dry conditions. Highs for Saturday near normal again at 50-55.

The high pressure ridge axis shifts into the region during Sunday
with a continuation of fair weather. High temperatures a little
cooler this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Rain is forecast late Tuesday into Tuesday night. The chance of
  rain continues on Wednesday, but confidence is lower.

* Seasonably cool and dry conditions on Monday, becoming milder for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

* The potential remains for a seasonably cool and dry Thanksgiving.


NBM was followed with no significant changes. Regarding the rain
chances from Tuesday through Thanksgiving, highest chances still
appear to be during Tuesday night with hydrologic impacts unlikely.
Rain chances continue into Wednesday, but at least there`s a little
more confidence that chances are no more than 50%. Then for
Thanksgiving Day, deterministic and ensembles for the most part
favor a more progressive motion with the mid-week storm system,
leaving us with a good chance of dry conditions through the day.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore through today. A cold front
approaches this afternoon and moves through late tonight into
Saturday morning as a frontal wave passes to the south. High
pressure builds to the west Saturday.

Mainly VFR expected through the morning with a cloud deck of
3-5Kft overspreading the area. A brief period of MVFR will be
possible, especially closer to the morning push, 12Z to 15Z.
An improvement back to VFR conditions is expected for much of
the morning and early afternoon before MVFR cigs return late
afternoon into the evening, though the timing of any category
changes due to ceilings is low confidence through the afternoon.
Cigs continue to lower Friday night to IFR with approach of
-SHRA mainly after 06Z Saturday.

Winds generally light and variable becoming a light SW flow
early this morning. SW winds continue before a shift to the W
and NW this evening and late tonight respectively. Wind speeds
should remain 10 kt or less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for the timing of any changing flight
categories through the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain.
Becoming VFR Saturday afternoon into the evening. SW winds 10 kt or
less Friday night becoming NW to N Saturday 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR possibly becoming MVFR in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through Monday. There may be a
period of marginal small craft conditions with gusts close to 25 kt
on the ocean during Saturday afternoon into evening. Next chance of
advisory conditions will be on Tuesday with low pressure
approaching, but a better chance will arrive Tuesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/MW
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC