995
FXUS61 KOKX 020926
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
426 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region today
and tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday. High
pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a cold
frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then pass
to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak
high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
What`s Changed:  No significant changes to the forecast. Onset of
precipitation delayed by a few hours.

Key Points:

*Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until 10pm for Orange,
Putnam, Rockland and Western Passaic Counties today.

*Coastal storm will bring an accumulating snow to interior portions
of the local Tri-State, mainly north and west of I-287 in NJ and NY,
and I-84/I-684 in S CT. After a brief start as wet snow or a
rain/snow mix, plain rain for NYC and coastal areas.

High pressure continues to move offshore this morning with light
winds. Current surface analysis showing most of the area has been
able to radiatively cool to at or below freezing but is beginning to
warm slowly under light easterly flow, with upper 20s across
the interior and coastal CT, with low to mid 30s NYC and LI.
Back to the west, sfc analysis and radar places precipitation
shield associated with the eventual coastal low complex across
eastern WV and eastern VA in the form of rain and mixed
precipitation as of 06Z. Radar also shows some returns as far
east as Central PA this hour, though only some scattered light
snow being reported given the mid level dry air still in place
across much of the east.

All this said, expecting the surface low, and attendant precipitation
to head northeastward over the next several hours, and model
guidance continues to be in good agreement with this. Precipitation
looks to have a difficult time starting here initially given the dry
air still in place per 00Z KOKX sounding, with model soundings not
showing good saturation until around, or after 15Z.  So given all
this, thinking any precipitation may not start locally until the 12-
15Z timeframe from west to east, with the bulk of precip falling in
the 15-00Z timeframe across the area. A wet snow may mix in briefly
across NYC, LI and coastal CT this morning, though accumulations are
not likely here.

The low deepens as it traverses northeast, and ends up southeast of
Long Island this afternoon, and there is good model agreement on
this. However, the ptype forecast evolution continues to be a
challenge. Given the later precip start which should allow
additional time for PBL warming, and less overall QPF, think the
changeover may be quicker and the rain/snow line pushes further
inland this afternoon. So have opted to maintain all snow across
Orange County for much of the event, though areas south of there
will likely transition by early afternoon, with NYC, Long Island and
coastal CT remaining all cold rain. So any accumulations of a very
wet snow across the forecast area have to occur on the early side of
the system (save for Orange County) before the eventual changeover
to rain.  In addition, as the low departs this evening, some wet
snow may mix in across especially across the interior.

Temperatures should rise to above freezing for all but Orange County
by early afternoon, the upper 30s/lower 40s for NYC/NJ metro, and as
high as the upper 40s. Winds pick up in wake of the departing low
this afternoon/tonight, with NW winds 15-25 gusting up to 35 mph.
The combo of snow load and winds could result in a few downed tree
branches/power outages mainly across Orange County this
afternoon/tonight. Refreezing of any standing water is likely
tonight as much of the area drops below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

*Dry conditions for the period.

*High temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s, which is about 10
degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected through the period, running as
  much as 10-15 degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday
  night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well inland to
mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat Fri night,
with a srn stream low passing to the south in progressive quasi-
zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled too strongly and ridging
off the SE coast too weakly, so despite suppressed 00Z GFS
solution think the sys will at least give a glancing blow late
Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30 PoP for all but the
lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles supportive of light snow
late Fri night/early Sat morning, then a transition to a light
rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across ern Long
Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across ern
Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for early next
week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the upper 20s/lower
30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to be longer lasting
than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure developing along the Mid Atlantic coast today will
pass southeast of Long Island late today into this evening.

Have adjusted timing of precip onset, arriving at most of the
NYC metro and lower Hudson Valley terminals between 14Z-15Z,
then spreading across the CT/Long Island terminals between
15Z-17Z.

Along the coast precip will be mostly rain, with perhaps a brief
start as snow or a rain/snow mix. Exceptions to this will be
KHPN which should see a somewhat longer period of snow before
the change to rain, and KSWF which should remain all snow. Cond
quickly lower to IFR once precip begins, with LIFR likely at
KSWF in moderate to briefly heavy snow, and possible at the
other terminals later today or this evening before a gusty N
flow takes hold.

Light mainly NE flow overnight should become more E 5-10 kt
this afternoon, then shift to the N 10-15 kt this evening, then
NW around 10 kt later Tuesday night. Gusts 20-25 kt likely
tonight, highest this evening and at the NYC metro/coastal
terminals. Winds daytime Tuesday may be erratic at times along
the coast as a frontal boundary develops and the surface low
passes nearby.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Higher confidence in timing of precip onset from 14Z-15Z.
AMD still possible thereafter to fine tune flight categories.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: Becoming VFR. NW winds G20kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt before 15Z.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR.

Friday night: Chance of MVFR in light snow late.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR in light snow/rain, mainly in the
morning and mainly E of the NYC metros.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
associated with coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30kts are
likely, occasionally to 35kts, with seas 5-6ft on the ocean and
1-3ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and seas
then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible with 0.5-1.5
inches of precipitation likely, especially with snowmelt and any
clogged drains with fallen leaves. Rainfall rates however are not
expected to exceed 0.5"/hr. This would be for a period from mid
morning to Tuesday evening. Otherwise, there are no significant
hydrologic concerns expected through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067>069.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR