121
FXUS61 KOKX 240843
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
343 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the region today and moves slowly
offshore tonight into Tuesday. A warm front slowly approaches
Tuesday pushing north of the area Tuesday evening. A cold front
then approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night.
Strong low pressure will be northeast of the region with high
pressure to the southwest of the region Thanksgiving through
Friday night. High pressure builds back into the area for next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure build over the region
today with quiet weather, and diminishing winds this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals and followed the NBM
with a blend of the global guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The flow will be progressive and the upper ridge and surface
high will be moving offshore tonight through Tuesday. An
amplifying shortwave moves out of the Pacific northwest tonight
through Tuesday and reaches the western Great Lakes/upper
midwest region by Wednesday morning. The upper trough then
becomes negative as moving slowly eastward into Wednesday night.
Meanwhile surface low pressure begins to develop and deepen
over the plains tonight and tracks to the western Great Lakes
region by late Tuesday, and continues to deepen. The low will
bring strong warm advection to the east and northeast during
during Tuesday as a warm front approaches. The warm advection
continues through Tuesday night as the warm front lifts north.
With the approach of the front lift increases and there will be
a chance of rain developing by late day Tuesday. Rain is
expected Tuesday night as a low level jst up to 50 kt moves
across the region. Increasing lift with the jet o . With
increasing lift and some elevated CAPE a few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, especially over the ocean waters
and across Long Island. With the low probabilities have not
included this in the forecast. An rainfall may become briefly
moderate to heavy as the jet moves through the region.

For temperatures tonight leaned toward the cooler MAV guidance
as the high builds overhead and winds become light, temperatures
will fall off quickly after sunset and then clouds begin to
move in later in the night. With the strong warm advection
Tuesday temperatures will be above seasonal normals, and the NBM
guidance looked reasonable. Then with the warm advection
Tuesday night lows will be early in the evening, and may be only
a few degrees lower than Tuesday`s highs. A non diurnal
temperature trace is expected Tuesday night with temperatures
rising through the overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points

* Windy conditions looking more likely Thanksgiving through
  Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 35 to 40 mph, with peak
  gusts to around 45 mph Thanksgiving through Friday.

* Colder than normal temperatures with colder wind chills in the
  forecast for Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs mainly in the
  lower to mid 40s Thanksgiving with wind chills mostly in the
  30s. Highs mainly in the lower 40s Friday with wind chills
  mostly in the mid 20s to near 30.

* Outside of a chance of mainly rain ahead and along the cold
  front Wednesday through Wednesday night, mainly dry conditions
  are expected for the long term forecast period. There is a
  chance of rain Sunday.

Previous discussion follows...

A large dip in the jet stream is shown in the numerical weather
prediction guidance consensus to the west of the region early
Wednesday. The associated trough and jet stream max move near
the area for mid to late week. Jet stream max moves south of the
area Thursday night into Friday. This mid and upper level
pattern flatten out, with return to a nearly zonal flow for the
weekend. A ridging pattern becomes evident in the guidance for
next weekend. The 850mb fields show a cold pool moving into the
region in the Thursday through Friday evening time period with
values near the -7 to -10 degree C range. This will mark a very
cold airmass that will be encompassing the area during this time
period.

At the surface, the local region will be in the warm sector for
Wednesday with a cold front approaching from the west. This
cold front crosses the region Wednesday night. Then, one low,
relatively weaker one, will be moving northeast of the region
into Canadian Maritimes Thanksgiving Thursday. Meanwhile,
another relatively stronger low will be in Southeast Canada
moving eastward on Thursday. In the numerical model fields MSLP
and with their depiction of winds, a secondary cold front
appears to move across Friday. High pressure builds in from the
south and west thereafter for the next weekend.

The windy conditions forecast are a result of a tightening
pressure gradient seen in the forecast models Thursday through
Friday. The pressure gradient appears to be the tightest on
Friday. This is associated with a stronger area of low pressure
that will be moving within Southeast Canada. The GFS model
BUFKIT soundings on Friday afternoon are indicating already some
top of the mixed layer gusts near 40 to 45 kt. On a westerly
flow, efficient vertical mixing and winds near top of the mixed
layer can more easily be brought down to the surface.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds settles nearby today.

VFR prevails throughout the TAF period.

Some uncertainty regarding when winds attempt to increase early
this morning, but by around 14Z NW winds 10-15 kt sustained
with gusts around 20-25 kt are expected. Gusts should end with
winds decreasing to around 10 kt towards 19-20z. Winds diminish
more into this evening`s push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts up to 20 kt could occur through daybreak, especially for
KLGA and KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Monday night: VFR with light SW winds.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late in the day with rain becoming
likely in the afternoon. Rain at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S-SW gusts
20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and showers, otherwise mostly VFR.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-33kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, on the ocean
waters, Long Island bays and the eastern Long Island Sound,
through 200 PM EST. With high pressure building into the waters
this afternoon winds and gusts will quickly decrease to below
SCA levels, and ocean seas will subside. With high pressure in
control winds and seas remain below advisory levels until late
Tuesday. With the approach and passage of a warm front Tuesday
into Tuesday night southerly winds increase and ocean seas build
to marginal SCA levels late Tuesday and remain into Tuesday
night. The non ocean waters remain below advisory levels.

SCA conditions likely return for all the forecast waters
Wednesday night as a cold front approaches. There is a chance of
isolated thunderstorms over the ocean waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With the passage of a cold front Wednesday night
westerly winds will increase Thursday, and there is the
potential for gales on all waters Thursday through Friday
evening. Elevated seas well into SCA range for ocean and
portions of Long Island Sound Thursday through Friday. Forecast
winds eventually trend down to SCA levels Friday night and SCA
levels for seas remain on the ocean and Eastern Long Island
Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM/MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET