246
FXUS61 KOKX 161457
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
957 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure gradually lifts into Atlantic Canada early
this week as high pressure builds east from the Plains. A weak area
of low pressure passes off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night,
then high pressure returns midweek before sliding offshore late
Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front has passed east of the area. Cold advection is
starting this morning, but will begin to increase by afternoon.
Heights are still falling aloft with the approaching upper low
over New England, so a few brief showers cannot be ruled out
this morning.

Steep low level lapse rates with the advecting cold pool aloft
should allow deep BL mixing toward 750 mb, and increased flow
given the low`s tightening pressure field will result in a gusty
close to the weekend. WNW flow increases with gusts up to 40
mph expected by late morning/early afternoon across the region
through the early evening. Likely see peak gusts toward 50 mph
in some locales, especially along the coast, though extent and
confidence does not warrant a Wind Advisory as of this update.
This thinking matches 00Z HREF guidance, indicating potential
for a few stronger gusts along the coast and elevated areas of
the Hudson/Ramapo Highlands. Blended in NBM90 to better align
with these anticipated gust speeds.

With the CAA, temperatures today likely remain steady, if not
begin to fall slightly, from where they start the day in the
40s and 50s. Can`t rule out a few streamers from the Lakes
making it into the region given the flow, lapse rates, and
spokes of energy working around the mid level trough. Continued
to adjust PoPs up over the national blend this afternoon and
early evening, closer to MAV guidance, with chance (25%) across
far interior portions of the LoHud Valley, and slight chance
(15-20%) for the rest of the forecast area. This is also
supported by CAMs, with the 6Z HRRR and 3km NAM reflectivity
depicting several of these streamers working into at least some
inland areas. Despite the relatively mild surface temperatures,
lowering thicknesses through the day could allow some wet snow
to mix in across the interior by late afternoon, with any precip
at the coast falling as rain. Absent a brief heavier shower,
impacts will be minimal regardless. Temperatures tonight fall
back into the 20s and 30s areawide, but boundary winds likely
persist enough to prevent decoupling, mitigating the likelihood
of frost formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure meanders over southeast Canada through the period
as high pressure builds in from the west. A weak wave of low
pressure may attempt to slide off the Mid Atlantic coast by
Tuesday night.

Pressure gradient remains tightened on Monday between the sub
980 mb low and a building high from the Midwest. This results in
another blustery day, though gusts lower slightly overall from
Sunday, more into the 25 to 35 mph range. The gradient relaxes
Monday night, allowing more tranquil conditions on Tuesday with
lighter flow.

The cooler air mass settles in Monday, and it may be the
coldest day of the week, with highs progged in the low to mid
40s for most, or about 10 degrees below climo for mid November.
Coupled with the blustery conditions, it`ll feel more like the
30s much of the day. Temperatures rebound a few degrees on
Tuesday, though remaining in the 40s during the afternoon.
Cyclonic flow along the western periphery of the trough leads
to a healthy stratocu deck on Monday, with more in the way of
sunshine expected on Tuesday as ridging builds over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points:

* Temperatures below normal to begin the period on Wednesday,
  moderating to normal Thursday, above normal Friday into Saturday.

* There will only be a slight chance of a few showers for southern
  portions of the area early Wednesday, along with a minimal shower
  chance later Wednesday night. Otherwise mainly dry until Thursday
  night with rain chances increasing for Thursday night and Friday.

Global models are in decent agreement through the upcoming week and
only minor deviations were made from National Blend of Models (NBM).
Both a negative AO and NAO (shorter term climate signals) has lead
to a blocking pattern across the North Atlantic and an upper vortex
over eastern Canada. This has resulted in cooler than normal
temperatures the past week and multiple deep lows tracking up into
eastern Canada followed by gusty W/NW winds. Long term models are
showing a break in the pattern later in the week as temperatures go
from below normal at the start of the period, to above normal later
in the week.

It will be a mainly dry week as weak low pressure passes to the
south early Wednesday. The forecast area looks to be on the northern
periphery of some light precipitation to begin the period. If the
precipitation shield were to get far enough north into inland zones,
there is a chance of some wet snow mixing in. Impacts are not
expected at this time. There is the potential for a wetter, warmer
system for the end of the week as the vortex over eastern Canada
lifts out. Rain chances increase Friday into Friday night but at
this time it appears that the bulk of the steadier precipitation
will go to the N and NW of the area based on the latest NWP
consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strengthening low pressure goes from coastal Maine to Canadian
Maritimes through this afternoon. Cold front is southeast of the
region. Strong low pressure remains in the Canadian Maritimes
tonight into Monday.

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Exceptions would
be for brief MVFR for some rain shower activity today which will
be north of the NYC and Long Island terminals.

Winds will be WNW direction and gusty through the entire TAF
period. Sustained winds near 20-25 kt can be expected through
this evening before subsiding to near 15-20 kt range late
tonight into early Monday morning. Gusts mainly near 30-35kt
can be expected through early this evening with potentially a
few peak gusts near 40 kt this afternoon. Gusts late tonight
into early Monday morning will be more in the 25-30 kt range.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Potential for gusts near 40 kt 18-23Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20kt G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt possible in the morning.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing W/WNW flow in the wake of deepening low pressure
will result in gale conditions on all waters by late morning,
then persisting through at least tonight.

Gale Warnings all waters thru 6 AM Monday. Gales continue on
the ocean through Monday afternoon, with SCA conditions likely
persisting on non ocean waters through this time. Seas on the
ocean build to between 6 and 10 ft through Monday, and peak
gusts up to 40 kt on all waters during the time of Gale Warning.

Winds and seas gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday,
with sub SCA conditions expected on all waters by Tue PM,
then prevailing across all waters into midweek as high pressure
settles nearby providing tranquil seas and light winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through the
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
     345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE/JM
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR