622
FXUS61 KOKX 232044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves through the area this evening, with high
pressure building in behind it. High pressure remains in control
through Tuesday morning before a warm front pushes north of the
area Tuesday evening. A cold front then approaches Wednesday and
moves across Wednesday night. Strong low pressure will be
northeast of the region with high pressure to the southwest of the
region Thanksgiving through Friday night. High pressure builds
back into the area for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A shortwave trough axis and weak surface cold front are currently
approaching the area from the west. These features are expected to
move through sometime early this afternoon. CAMs continue to show
some reflectivity enhancement over eastern LI and CT likely due to
increased moisture from the relatively warmer sound and ocean.
Have added just a slight chance of rain showers for these
eastern areas.

Otherwise, gusty winds are expected behind the cold frontal passage
through tonight, moreso at the coast. Went above the NBM given how
it has has performed in recent NW flow/cold advection regimes
and also taking into account mixing from the latest model
soundings. Gusts at the coast will likely be between 25 and 35
mph.

Given that winds likely stay elevated, not expecting temps to get as
low as last night. Lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30s
for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Brief ridging builds in aloft on Monday along with surface high
pressure. The pressure gradient relaxes pretty significantly by
Monday afternoon/evening and so winds will fall off. Winds
remain light through Monday night, but mid and upper level
clouds are expected to increase so this will work against
radiational cooling. The low temperature forecast Monday night
will be very dependent on this cloud cover so if timing changes
over the next 24 hours then expect changes in the forecast lows
as well.

A frontal system then approaches on Tuesday with rain starting as
early as Tuesday afternoon. The center of the low will be well to
the north and west but the associated warm front will push north of
the area sometime Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points

* Windy conditions with colder than normal temperatures looking more
  likely Thanksgiving through Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 40
  to 45 mph Thanksgiving and perhaps wind gusts up to 50 mph for
  Friday.

* Outside of a chance of mainly rain ahead and along the cold front
  Wednesday through Wednesday night, mainly dry conditions are
  expected for the long term forecast period.

A large dip in the jet stream is shown in the numerical weather
prediction guidance consensus to the west of the region early
Wednesday. The associated trough and jet stream max move near the
area for mid to late week. Jet stream max moves south of the area
Thursday night into Friday. This mid and upper level pattern flatten
out, with return to a nearly zonal flow for the weekend. A ridging
pattern becomes evident in the guidance for next weekend.

At the surface, the local region will be in the warm sector for
Wednesday with a cold front approaching from the west. This cold
front crosses the region Wednesday night. Then, one low, relatively
weaker one, will be moving northeast of the region into Canadian
Maritimes Thanksgiving Thursday. Meanwhile, another relatively
stronger low will be in Southeast Canada moving eastward on
Thursday. In the numerical model fields MSLP and with their
depiction of winds, a secondary cold front appears to move across
Friday. High pressure builds in from the south and west thereafter
for the next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure gives way to a weak cold front this afternoon/evening.

VFR expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. There is
potential for light showers and pockets of brief MVFR conditions
with ceilings as low as 025-030 ft through this afternoon, but
confidence remains too low to include in the TAF.

West winds 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to around 20 kt this
afternoon. Some uncertainty regarding how much sustained winds
and gusts drop off tonight. On Monday, W-NW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts around 20-25 kt through early afternoon, then winds
decrease to around 10 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start time of gusts may be off an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR late in the day with rain becoming
likely in the afternoon. Rain at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S-SW gusts
20-25 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and showers, otherwise mostly VFR.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory now starts on the ocean at 4PM this
afternoon on the ocean waters with 25 knot wind gusts expected. The
SCA on all other waters (except the NY Harbor and western Sound)
starts at 10PM tonight. Winds decrease on Monday and sub-SCA
conditions return by Monday afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions then
continue through mid week, except a short period Tuesday night when
25 knot gusts are possible on the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$