099
FXUS61 KOKX 110538
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across late tonight into Thursday
morning. Associated low pressure will move well north and
deepen, eventually tracking into the Canadian Maritimes on
Thursday. Weak high pressure will follows for Friday. A couple
of clipper lows over the Midwest on Saturday will send another
shot of Arctic air across the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Strong high pressure will then build in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Points:

* Light rain across eastern CT/Long Island should end by
  midnight.

* Black ice formation possibility for early Thursday morning,
  highly dependent on winds. If wind speeds are less than 10
  mph, this potential will increase. Otherwise, not expecting
  much with higher winds helping to dry out surfaces.

Updated current forecast for a quicker end time to the
precipitation as the back edge is entering the Lower Hudson
Valley. Additionally, light snow is still falling well
north/west. Increased snow totals to around an inch max, mainly
across Western Passaic, Orange, and Putnam counties.

Mid level vort max moves through this evening. Upper level jet
streak left front quad moves in late this afternoon and then
pushes northeast away from the region tonight. A strong cold
front will approach heading into this evening. Highest PoP for
NYC metro and points east this evening. PoP then trends down
late this evening into the overnight as forcing weakens.

Forecast low temps will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Windy Thursday into Thursday night with strong cold air advection.
  Peak wind gusts to 40 to 45 mph. Occasional gust up to 50 mph
  possible.

* Winds trend down late Thursday night into Friday.

* Much colder than normal temperatures. Max temperatures forecast
  mainly in the 30s Thursday and Friday.

* Mainly dry but some possible snow showers Thursday and Friday
  night into early Saturday morning.

Overall pattern jet stream south of the region. Mean trough across
the Northeast but not a sharp trough, extending from North Central
US to Mid-Atlantic. Mid level cutoff low moving into Northern New
England Thursday, then moves into Canadian Maritimes Thursday night
into Friday. Quasi-zonal mid flow across the area for Friday
night.

At the surface, a strengthening low moves through Canadian Maritimes
Thursday into Thursday night. Weak high pressure builds into the
local region Friday into Friday night.

Mid level PVA with strong cold air advection could bring in a few
snow showers Thursday into Thursday night across the region. The
NAM model guidance indicating more steep lapse rates and some
elevated CAPE, with some possibility for snow squalls. However,
this is just one model but did increase above NBM POPs after
taking much of the CAMs into account.

Pressure gradient will be getting more tight between low pressure
well northeast of the region and high pressure well to the southwest
of the region. A gusty NW flow will be in place during the day and
at night. Temperatures much colder than normal Thursday through
Friday night.

Wind gusts up to near 35 to 40 mph expected with some peak gusts up
to 45 mph. This is just under advisory thresholds. NAM Bufkit
soundings and HREF showing possibility of some higher wind gusts, up
to near 50 mph mixing down to surface. The GFS Bufkit is much less
however and the forecast wind gusts already are several kts higher
than the NBM 90th percentile so not enough confidence to go with
wind advisory at this time. GFS LAMP guidance for some locations
also showing gusts closer to 30 kts as opposed to 35 kt for mid
to late afternoon Thursday.

Another low probability for snow showers late Friday night into
early Saturday morning with a weakening low but much of the
forecast guidance has trended drier for this, showing more high
pressure presence.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* A clipper low may bring in light snow or flurries for Saturday
  morning. The trend is toward a drier forecast.

* Another clipper low and associated Arctic cold front and upper
  level disturbance will bring a better chance for light snow
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday,
  with temps up to 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Weakening low pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys
Friday approaches the area, while another weak low Friday night
passes over the northern Great Lakes. While the first low generally
dissipates with its approach it may induce a weak low off the East
Coast Saturday morning along with some weak vorticity in the upper
levels, giving eastern areas just a slight chance for snow.

The second low passes well north of the area into Saturday night and
Sunday morning, weakening as it does so. At the same time, another
fast moving vorticity max rounds the base of the upper level trough
over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and moves toward the
forecast area. Additionally, and arctic front moves through on
Sunday. Miller B type cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on
Sunday well SE of New England after it passes through, likely too
late to have impact. This gives the region a better chance for snow
for the entire area. Though it is too far out to discuss any
accumulations, any potential snow accumulations are expected to be
light at this time.

After the passage of the cold front, colder conditions move in later
Sunday through Tue, and it could also become blustery Sunday night
into Mon due to the tight pressure gradient between the intensifying
low as it heads toward Atlantic Canada and high pressure building to
the west. The high should build over the area on Tue and remain in
control through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry
through then.

Temps will run 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Mon, with lows in
the teens and lower 20s, and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Wind chills early Mon morning could drop to the single digits
throughout. Only slight moderation in high temps (lower to middle
30s) expected for Tue, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will pass through overnight. High pressure will then
slowly build from the west today as low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes intensifies.

Any remaining MVFR cigs at KGON now that rain has ended there should
scatter early in the period.

Cold front dropping into the area was accompanied by a line of snow
showers and should impact KSWF early, but do not think this activity
will make it to the terminals farther SE. Fropa timing 07Z KSWF, 08Z
KHPN/NYC metros, 09Z KBDR/KISP, 10Z KGON, with winds shifting WNW.

BKN VFR cigs expected this afternoon. A brief snow shower may be
possible late, but timing/location are both too uncertain to mention
yet.

WNW flow expected by 13Z-14Z with gusts 30-35 kt. It is possible
that these stronger winds could begin a couple of hours sooner than
fcst. Winds diminish after 22Z-23Z, with gusts still between 25-30
kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Stronger WNW winds with gusts over 30 kt may arrive as early as 11Z.
A brief gust to 40 kt is also possible.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. WNW winds G20kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. Isolated MVFR possible in any rain or snow
showers at night. W winds G20kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W winds
G15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in any snow. NW winds G20-25kt.

Monday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings on the ocean have been replaced with SCA for the
overnight, along with the non ocean waters.

For Thursday into Thursday evening, another round of gales is
likely for all waters. These gales will then be more over the
ocean for late Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Wind gusts at SCA levels then are forecast to follow for Friday
before dropping below SCA thresholds Friday night. The eastern
ocean will probably have some lingering SCA conditions (both
wind gusts and seas) Friday evening before dropping below SCA
thresholds. Otherwise, below SCA conditions forecast for other
waters Friday night.

After an upper level disturbance passes by, SCA conditions
should return to the ocean waters Sat afternoon, with gusts
25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Saturday
night, diminishing late Saturday night

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low
pressure develops/intensifies along the front SE of New
England, winds should veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be
possible. Seas should build to 5-9 ft on the ocean, and around
5 ft on the central/eastern sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ338.

&&

$$