587
FXUS61 KOKX 062039
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds over the area tonight and into Sunday. A
strong cold front will move through Sunday night ushering in a cold
high pressure system for Monday into Tuesday. A couple of low
pressure systems may impact the area the mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak high pressure will gradually build in from the west this
evening and into the overnight as the disturbances causing the
showery activity earlier in the day shifts to the east. The building
in high pressure will allow for some weak CAA into the area under a
light W to eventual NW flow. Skies will be generally clearing
tonight. Lows will be in the 20s with the immediate coast and the
NYC metro remaining in the low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the area on Sunday quickly translates east with
increasing cloud cover by afternoon courtesy of a passing shortwave
to the north. While cloud cover will increase and a weak southerly
flow develops, no precipitation is expected in the area as the low
passes to the north, though a stray flurry or light snow shower for
northern areas isn`t completely ruled out. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the upper 30s inland to the lower 40s along and
closer to the coast.

By evening, a strong cold front moves through allowing for a wind
shift to the NW and strong CAA into the area. This is ahead of a
strong and cold high pressure system building into the area for
Monday and Monday night. Lows on Sunday night will be in the 20s for
the entire area, though some outlying spots may drop into the upper
teens. Wind chill values will make the air feel like it is in the
teens along the coast and possibly single digits for northern
locations.

Cold air settles over the area on Monday with high temperatures well
below average. Afternoon highs are only expected to rise into the
middle to upper 20s inland and into the low 30s along the coast.
Despite mostly clear skies with ample sunshine during the day, the
combination of brisk NW flow and cold air will allow for wind chill
values to not rise out of the upper teens to lower 20s during the
day.

High pressure moves more solidly over the area Monday night allowing
for a decrease in the wind. Some radiational cooling is possible
overnight but some high level clouds moving in may prevent
temperatures from dropping more than forecast. Regardless, lows are
expected to be some of the coldest of the season thus far with lows
in the single digits for extreme NW portions of the area with teens
expected just about everywhere else. Some spots near NYC may only
drop into the low 20s. It is possible for some outlying spots to
drop lower than forecast if clouds hold off for a bit longer than
expected and wind goes calm at some point overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of precipitation,
  to the area late Tuesday night through Saturday. Precipitation
  types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday,
  when they`ll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night-
Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the
position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that
may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds to the southwest through tonight, before
sliding offshore on Sunday.

VFR.

WSW flow up to 10 kt through the rest of the day, veering
WNW/NW this evening and overnight as speeds lighten. Direction
may briefly go variable for a period late Sun AM at some
terminals, before a general SW flow becomes established in the
early afternoon. Speeds remain at or under 10 kt through the
period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Direction could hang near, or just north of, 310 mag for the
Sun AM push.

Winds may briefly go variable after 15Z Sun, before becoming SW
by early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt developing at night.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible w/ chance of rain/snow
across interior Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt
possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. An increase in the
pressure gradient behind a cold frontal passage Sunday night will
allow winds to increase to SCA criteria for much of the waters by
Monday morning. Non-ocean waters likely fall below SCA conditions by
Monday evening with the ocean waters falling below SCA conditions
later at night.

SCA conditions are once again possible by Tuesday afternoon
through much of next week as multiple low pressure systems could
impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels have largely stayed below flooding thresholds outside
of an isolated location. Given that this midday cycle was expected
to be the highest high tide, coastal flooding is not expected for
the tonight or tomorrow high tide cycles, though some sites may
reach action stage.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...