969
FXUS61 KOKX 300927
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
527 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through dry today into tonight. A large area
of high pressure builds in from the north thereafter and remains
over the northeast and mid Atlantic through this week, with the
center pushing south of the area by the first half of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper ridging east of the Mississippi River Valley and troughing
across eastern Canada will allow a cold front to drop down across
the area today into tonight with a cooler airmass to follow.
This will allow the high clouds to push south of the area, so
expecting this morning to be mostly cloudy with dense high
clouds, but more clouds than sun by this afternoon into this
evening.

Above-normal high temperatures today, with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air advection gets underway tonight. Even without
radiational cooling being a factor, low temperature should fall
into the mid 40s well NW of the city with 50s for most other
locations.

It will feel like Autumn on Wednesday with the cooler air mass
settled in. Plenty of sunshine and breezy with a tighter pressure
gradient over the area. Highs 65-70, which is a little below normal.
Mainly clear and cool Wednesday night with diminishing winds. This
will allow lows to fall into the mid to upper 30s well NW of the
city, but mid 40s to low 50s for most other spots. Didn`t add frost
to the forecast yet, but patchy frost could be possible in parts of
Orange County late at night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry through the period. Thursday and Thursday night temperatures
will be several degrees below normal and gusty northeast winds early
Thursday will be diminishing through the day as the high become
entrenched across the region. Then milder conditions are expected
Saturday through Monday with above normal temperatures. The NBM was
followed through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A dry cold front will move through the area this afternoon, followed
by high pressure building in from the north through the week.

VFR. High cirrus persists through the period.

Light and variable flow through early this morning, becoming
N/NE after 12Z as speeds increase toward 10 kt into early
afternoon. Gusts to around 20 kt area likely to develop from
late afternoon into this evening.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts of 15-18KT are possible late this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late Tuesday Night: VFR. NE gusts around 20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. NE gusts around 15-25 kt, with the highest
gusts at the coastal terminals.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SE-S swell from the tropical systems out in the western Atlantic
will build over the next few days with seas over 5 ft on the ocean
waters starting tonight and likely lasting well into the week. The
pressure gradient also tightens Tuesday night into Wednesday with
gusts reaching advisory levels on all waters. Have extended the SCA
on the ocean to go through Wednesday afternoon for the time being.
Perhaps a couple of gusts to gale force could occur east of Moriches
Inlet late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but not enough for
a Gale Watch at this time. Have also put up a SCA on the non ocean
waters for late Tues night through Wednesday afternoon due to gusts,
and in the case of eastern LI Sound, swells keeping seas elevated as
well.

The NE winds and gusts will be diminishing through Thursday as high
pressure become entrenched over the northeast. The non ocean waters
will be below advisory levels Thursday morning, with the ocean
waters falling below during the afternoon. However, ocean seas will
be slow to subside, not falling below 5 feet until during the day
Friday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be extended into Thursday
and Friday on the ocean waters with subsequent forecasts. Conditions
will then be sub advisory levels across the forecast waters through
Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A statement has been issued for high surf impacting the
oceanfront.

A building southerly swell due to multiple tropical cyclones
well off the eastern seaboard will produce large breaking waves
along the oceanfront today into Wednesday. Expect surf to build
to 6 to 10 ft by tonight with an incoming S swell increasing
to 6 ft 15s. Fortunately, water levels are not expected to get
too high as we are about a week out from a full moon. However,
expect some beach flooding and minor damage to dune structures.
Coastal flooding beyond the beachfront is unlikely.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP
HYDROLOGY...JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW